Boks’ massive mission
14 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE looks at the trends that could shape the Dunedin Test, with the stats suggesting the Springboks will struggle.
Attack
The facet of play most lamented among Springbok supporters. Heyneke Meyer’s kick-chase approach has failed to work in the manner he has envisioned and the widely held view is that the Springboks have no Plan B, or at least a very ineffective one. Flyhalf Morné Steyn has kicked the 30% of the time he has taken the ball at first receiver – this compared with the All Blacks’ 16%. The Blacks’ flyhalves have passed the ball nearly 68% of the time, while Steyn is down at 56% and runs the ball 13% of the time. The pace, precision and skill with which the Blacks attack has been their strength. Ominously, the Blacks have broken more tackles than they’ve made kicks and have broken more tackles than any team in the tournament. Furthermore, they have made the most successful offloads and clean linebreaks in the tournament, which has been central to their attacking success. The Springboks pale in comparison in these attacking disciplines.
Defence
It is critical that the Springboks boss the gainline and breakdown in a bid to slow the Blacks’ recycle. Their previous showings in the latter have been poor, while their tackling was mediocre at best against Australia in Perth (it had been good before that). The inclusion of Francois Louw at openside flank is a good one, but his effectiveness rests heavily on the team’s gainline punch. The Springboks average nearly 16 missed tackles per game. Their previous opponents haven’t possessed the capacity to punish them in the manner the Blacks will. They simply have to cut down this figure. The Blacks miss around 11 tackles per match, but very few of those in their 22m. The platform the Springboks’ heavies lay will be crucial if they are to break down this efficient unit.
Errors
In the absence of any attacking creativity or flair, the Springboks will rely heavily on their kick-chase to pressure the All Blacks into penalties and build their score in that manner. However, tellingly, the Blacks’ discipline in their 22m has been exceptional, with the bulk of their indiscretions coming in the zone between their 22 and halfway line (and most of those closer to halfway). Morné Steyn’s goal-kicking form has been inconsistent and from those distances his accuracy will be compromised. Frans Steyn’s gun-boot may be the alternative, although he too hasn’t been too accurate (3 from 8 attempts). The Blacks will want to improve on their penalty count in the opposition’s 22m (24% of their total penalties have been conceded in that zone), while the Springboks are slightly better at 21%. However, they are close to 30% in the zone between the opposition’s 22m and halfway. The Springboks’ biggest problem has been their turnover rate in the red zone, which stands at nearly 43%. That has contributed significantly to struggles and is a facet of play they must improve exponentially to stand a chance of victory. Notably, the Blacks are far better at protecting the ball in this zone, which accounts for their superior try tally. The Springboks have also stolen painfully little (6% of their turnovers) in this area.
The Ref
George Clancy is averaging 3.5 scrum resets per game and is handing out 4.5 scrum infringements (pens and F/K). On average 79% of the time it will be conceded by the defending team. Clancy is handing out an average of 20 penalties per game with the bulk of those coming at the breakdown. On average 7.0 penalties will be inside the 22 and 7.0 penalties will become kicks at goal.
Stats supplied by ruckingoodstats
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267 Comments
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15 Sep 2012, 02:53 am
@Ricardo10-199: no atmosphere? you havent watched super rugby this year then..
eish, it is the ABs first game at this stadium also, it was built for the WC and teams like England, Argentina and Scotland had their pool games there.. and there was plenty of atmosphere during those games..
15 Sep 2012, 03:03 am
Pedigree, if you read this some news on the Blues..
Woodcock has signed with the landers for next season
Toeava is of to Japan
we will be challenging the Kings for the wooden spoon next year methinks
15 Sep 2012, 03:09 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikQg1k-MBDQ&feature=related
Tuqiri spear tackle on Ritchie Mccaw was pretty bad and escape punishment. You can see his neck twist as his heads driven into the ground.
That was one of the nastiest looking spears I can think of and it went unpunished on the field.
Don’t think that ref’s only miss infringements when NZ does them.
15 Sep 2012, 04:19 am
@Pencil-203: no you’re right, Oz also get away with it
15 Sep 2012, 04:33 am
@Pencil-203:
I believe he got 4 weeks afterwards..
After tht tackle IRB came down hard on spear tackles…i think it was NZ driven as their “precious’ was on the worse end of it.
15 Sep 2012, 04:38 am
@Big Hit-204: so do the “poms”
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Manu Tuilagi tip-tackle citing dismissed ahead of South Africa tour
The Aviva Premiership final began in frantic fashion on Saturday as big hitting midfielder Manu Tuilagi was penalised for a tip-tackle on Danny Care. He was cited, but that was dismissed, making him available for England’s tour of South Africa.
15 Sep 2012, 04:40 am
@nama1-191: Tiny Naude’s kick on a Christchurch mudbath won the Boks their only test on the 1965 tour. The first and only time the Boks ever WON a series on NZ soil was in 1937. That was also the last time the Boks ever won a test at Eden Park, Auckland.
The Boks lost the 1956 series, and this marked the first-ever series win for NZ over the Boks (home or away), after drawn series in 1921 and 1928 and defeats in 1937 and 1949.
15 Sep 2012, 04:43 am
@Big Hit-204: and the Lions too.
an “accidental” spear tackle?
hahahahahahaha
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRZRQI_69OQ
15 Sep 2012, 04:51 am
@wallabie.-205:
I think it was a pretty terrible tackle to be put on anyone. I don’t enjoy seeing players necks get bent that way regardless of what colour jersey they have on.
I’m happy they cracked down on them.
Anyway the point was that it went unpunished on the field of play. All teams get their lucky breaks.
15 Sep 2012, 05:32 am
@Big Hit-204: so do South Africa, just for you Bakkies, what cheating filth huh?
JPP getting away with a high tackle
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugDM1iHuVWw
Matfields High tackle on Carter
http://www.rugbydump.com/2006/11/37/victor-matfield-high-hit-on-dan-carter
and then on Kelleher
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ps7GtXfVZ14
escaped punishment for both too if memories correct.
but yeah, its only the antipodeans who “get away with it” lmfao..
15 Sep 2012, 07:04 am
Well here’s my 2 cents worth on the whole Pacific Islanders playing rugby union in New Zealand thing..in which a lot of the players are born here in N.Z.. and even if we combined all the islands with N.Z. the numbers would only reach a combined total of about 6 to 7 million tops…that in comparison to South Africa that has a population of about 30 million..so the numbers still favour S.A. by a long shot,..therefore it all comes down to hard work, natural talent , confidence in their abilities and natural flair etc etc..that makes N.Z. the number 1 ranked rugby team in the world..also our structures from primary and grass roots all the way up are exemplary….
15 Sep 2012, 07:25 am
@TheTackler-207:
Thanks Tackler
But I remember a photograph where Tiny Naudy hang his head out of disappointment after missing a kick to level/win the series against the AB. I thought it was the 1956 tour.
Maybe you can remember that photo as well?
15 Sep 2012, 07:34 am
@charo-116:
actually, that is bollocks.
perhaps with the exception of one track from deja vu by csn&y….
skoppie and katman have absolutely zero in common.
15 Sep 2012, 07:54 am
@poppa69-206: there was nothing in that Tuilagi tackle which is why the citing was dismissed completely
15 Sep 2012, 07:57 am
Can’t believe Pops rears his head here again after calling Rangerman a rapist
15 Sep 2012, 07:57 am
@Dawn-215: hey, people mock my mothers death still to this day, so whatever dawn..
15 Sep 2012, 07:58 am
Big hit with so many players why do you need to poach islanders like Tuilagi, clearly it doesnt help the England team and you deprive them from playing for their country?
15 Sep 2012, 07:59 am
@Big Hit-214: and the spear tackle on Tipoki?
15 Sep 2012, 08:01 am
Pops you can give it plenty tonight after we beat them, they’ll be wounded and looking to take it out on the nearest kiwi so watch your back…
15 Sep 2012, 08:02 am
@charo-213: I’m curious, which track?
15 Sep 2012, 08:02 am
Hi Guys
Does anyone know of a bar in Saigon District 1 where I can catch the game?
15 Sep 2012, 08:03 am
@NZINCHINA-219: no worries here mate…we’ll see how the game goes first, obviously if they win most kiwis will congratulate them, if we win it will be the refs fault..
thus it will be so..
imagine if they win? will be our first loss in 14 games but it will be a new world order, all sorts of chokes ala the sharks etc…
should be fun either way
15 Sep 2012, 08:04 am
@poppa69-216: No, Fern does. That’s not people. That’s one sicko. But you can’t tell the difference, because you are socially stunted.
15 Sep 2012, 08:06 am
Pops we go 14 straight tonight and march towards the needles 17 straight, that would be a much bigger highlight than winning the RC.
15 Sep 2012, 08:07 am
@katman-223: good morning to you too katman, lookijng forward to the game today?
no jokes about our culture yet? strange, you should up your game some son..
15 Sep 2012, 08:07 am
@NZINCHINA-224: You talking about our record under Mallet?
15 Sep 2012, 08:09 am
Agreed katman.
That’s not everyone.
15 Sep 2012, 08:09 am
No the Needle set the record and Hansens boys will break it.
15 Sep 2012, 08:11 am
@NZINCHINA-228: “Between August 1997 and December 1998, under Mallett’s guidance, the Springboks went on a record winning streak of 17 consecutive test wins. As part of the unbeaten run the Springboks won the Tri Nations Series undefeated and beat several teams by record margins, including a 52–10 against France in Paris, a 68–10 win over Scotland in Edinburgh, a 33–0 defeat of Ireland and a 96–13 against Wales. The run ended when the Springbok team was defeated by England at Twickenham at the end of a long tour on the 5 December 1998.”
15 Sep 2012, 08:12 am
@NZINCHINA-224: not looking that far ahead bro, one game at a time, the record will take care of itself..
happy with a one point win tonight, any more is a bonus..
it is a Bok/Ab test
15 Sep 2012, 08:12 am
@katman-229: Needle is Fred Allen
15 Sep 2012, 08:14 am
Don’t tell me “whatever”
It was a personal slander, and it warrants an apology.
15 Sep 2012, 08:15 am
@poppa69-231: though he won 14 of the 17 tests in charge..
not sure who had them for the other three?
15 Sep 2012, 08:16 am
Yes Katty I know Mallet equalled the Needles record.
15 Sep 2012, 08:18 am
@Dawn-232: sure, once i get apologies for qall the personal slanders Ive endured on this site..
sounds fair dont you think?
you know, us cheating fuilthy scum, us fat maoris etc etc..
hypocrite much?
15 Sep 2012, 08:18 am
Pops im out until later, lets hope we take them to the cleaners – cheers.
15 Sep 2012, 08:19 am
@NZINCHINA-236: cheers NZinC..
regardless, just want the boys to play well, if they lose no shame in that..
15 Sep 2012, 08:19 am
@NZINCHINA-234: Mallett won 17, Allen won 14. So technically he didn’t. But the two unbeaten runs for the teams were the same.
15 Sep 2012, 08:29 am
@poppa69-235: You do realise the incredibly huge gap in your logic, Giulietta? Because A and B insulted you, you’re justified in attacking C through Z because they share a nationality? That’s the stuff that religious jihads and facist genocides are based on. But as I said earlier, your emotional and social development clearly got halted at an early age, so I guess we can’t expect any kind of normal behaviour from you.
15 Sep 2012, 08:31 am
@katman-220:
dunno, southern man maybe?
15 Sep 2012, 08:33 am
@katman-239: is that a personal slander katman? eish..
you do it every time too, is it any wonder I generalise? have you tried to have a decent conversation with me rather than exalt your righteousness?
of course not, try it some time, you may be surprised..
15 Sep 2012, 08:35 am
Another 6 racial motivated farm murders this week! Kak country this! I hope nz kills the boks 2 day…. Cant support a country where boer genocide is ignored….. Come all blacks bliksem us hard!!!, do it for the murdered innocent ones….
15 Sep 2012, 08:35 am
Has anyone ever called you a rapist?
Twat.
15 Sep 2012, 08:43 am
@Dawn-243: nope, but Ive had plenty of references about being maori, and seen my culture ridiculed on this site, often..
dont kick the dog if you dont like it biting back
15 Sep 2012, 08:45 am
@katman-238:
The Boks won 17 in a row but Mallet was in charge for 16 of those matches.
Carel Dup started off the unbeaten run when his Boks beat Aus 61 – 22 before he was sacked.
15 Sep 2012, 08:48 am
@Boksarenumber1-50: he was indeed
15 Sep 2012, 08:48 am
@charo-240: Ah, from After The Goldrush. Great album. I thought you might have had “Old man” from Harvest in mind.
15 Sep 2012, 08:49 am
@grant100-242:
In August I saw an incredibly violent South African production of “Mies Julie” at the Edinburgh Festival. While being filled with pride at the intense teamwork and commitment of the actors, I was haunted and traumatized at the depiction of murder and destruction on the farms in SA.
The production was picked in the Top 10 out of almost 500 productions, and has since gone on to London.
It would not be so successful if it were not true, and the actors would not be so dedicated if they did not feel the truth behind everything they were telling.
Dit is nou ‘n kwessie van oorlewing. Take it or leave it.
15 Sep 2012, 08:49 am
@poppa69-241: You’re not decent, Poeps. Not by a long shot. I’d be wasting such a conversation on you.
15 Sep 2012, 08:51 am
@nama1-245: Indeed, you are correct.
I watched the England game that brought the run to an end in a pub in London. Was not fun.
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