Preview: Boks vs Wallabies

Preview: Boks vs Wallabies

28 Sep 2012

JON CARDINELLI previews the Rugby Championship battle at Loftus Versfeld and picks a winner.

How can we lose to this Wallabies side? Yes, I know, it was the same question I asked when I previewed the Test in Perth. But come on, how did the Boks blow a 13-3 advantage and lose to a side sans so many Test stars?

Surely it can’t happen again. For starters, the Wallabies are even worse off in terms of personnel, as Will Genia and Quade Cooper are no longer available. Then there’s the welcome fact that this Test will be played at Loftus, a venue that has never witnessed a Wallabies victory.

So let’s rephrase the question. Instead of asking, how the Boks can lose to this rudderless bunch of B-teamers, let’s ask, what makes this Wallabies side believe they can win at Loftus for the first time in 50 years of trying?

Do they have the pack? Certainly not. The statistics show that they are one of the weakest and most penalised teams in the competition as far as scrumming is concerned. They may boast a lineout master in Nathan Sharpe, but that set piece is not exactly spoiled for options and Tatafu-Polota Nau is notorious for failing to find his jumpers.

How about the breakdowns and mauls? The Boks have lacked discipline in this area if we consider the overall stats for the tournament, but there was a marked improvement in that previous Test in Dunedin. They seem to be settling as a forward unit, and produced a far more powerful and accurate showing in this area.

They will threaten the Wallabies when they maul from the lineout. And now that they’re fielding a more balanced back row, they will enjoy dominance at the collisions on attack, and trouble the Wallabies when the visitors take the ball into contact. In this respect, except the versatile Francois Louw to thrive as a ball-stealer and momentum-killer.

The performance of the pack is all important. The Boks need to establish dominance up front and slow the Wallabies down if they are going to record their first win against Australasian opposition in 2012. There should be no change in tactics, no matter who starts at flyhalf. Playing expansively will only play into the Wallabies’ hands.

The spotlight is on Johan Goosen when it should really be on the Bok pack as a collective. If they can overpower their Aussie counterparts, and men like Louw can prevent the Wallabies halfbacks from getting quick ball, then the Boks will have the opportunity to implement their game plan.

The Bok pack laid this platform in Dunedin, and were unfortunately let down by their halfbacks. Ruan Pienaar and new flyhalf Goosen will need to deliver a sharper showing at Loftus, both in terms of option-taking and execution. They should look to steer play into the opposition half, and when they do move the ball, Goosen will be under pressure to create space for his outside backs.

It’s is so damn obvious it’s almost a crime to say it, but the Boks need to take their opportunities this weekend. The Wallabies are the cockroaches of Test rugby (and I mean that as a compliment). They’re the kings of ugly wins. They’re capable of sustaining the most savage of beatings up front and somehow surviving to eke out undeserved victories.

The bottom line is that the Boks must kick their goals and convert their try-scoring chances. In this respect, Heyneke Meyer will be asking for more of the same from his forwards, that is a performance that will lay the platform, and far more from his halfbacks Pienaar and Goosen.

The Boks shouldn’t lose this game, but it is a possibility. They blew two great opportunities to win Down Under, and it is because of those mental lapses that they won’t take anything for granted at Loftus.

I’m not excusing those soft moments, but I am saying that the second-half performance in Pretoria will be under scrutiny. Playing in front of a partisan crowd should help in the last minutes of the game, as no matter the scoreline, a contest with Aussies is always in the balance until the final whistle.

But I believe they will pass the test. There is too much quality in that Bok side, and a fair bit of experience, for them to lose at home. To what degree they win is the real question. I’m not expecting a clinical performance, but I am expecting them to do enough to give South African supporters a reason to smile for the first time in two months.

PREDICTION: Boks by 10

Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jaco Taute, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Johan Goosen, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermuelen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Coenie Oosthuizen, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Marcel Coetzee, 20 Elton Jantjies, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.

Wallabies – 15 Berrick Barnes, 14 Dominic Shipperley, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Radike Samo, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Nathan Sharpe (c), 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota Nau, 1 Benn Robinson
Subs: 16 Saia Fainga’a, 17 James Slipper, 18 Rob Simmons, 19 Scott Higginbotham, 20 Liam Gill, 21 Brett Sheehan, 22 Anthony Fainga’a

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150 Comments

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  • 101.CharlesM: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:09 am

    @Fern-95: Was that in a SA or NZ newspaper ? I agree with you about the female with her allegations: could have ruined his life !! I suppose it has already damaged his image

  • 102.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:10 am

    NZ newspaper CharlesM

  • 103.gunther: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:11 am

    @Dawn-66:

    how can your boss tell the difference?

    :lol:

  • 104.Brads: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:12 am

    @Fern-95:
    Why did it take so long for a decision to be made?

  • 105.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:12 am

    too late gunther sy is by die tyd seker al lankal paralatic.

  • 106.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:13 am

    No idea Brads,hopefully this will bring closure for the youngster.

  • 107.CharlesM: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:13 am

    @Fern-102: Thanks Fern

  • 108.munkiboi: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:15 am

    TAB has SA by 6.5. I bet on SA by more than 6.5.

  • 109.Brads: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:19 am

    @Fern-106:
    Sad really.
    Once the press got a hold of the story the the movers and shakers looking into the incident presumably went all out to make sure all the angles were explored.
    All the while the the fellow is assumed guilty in the minds of the average Joe.

  • 110.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:20 am

    Very sad Brads,her name should now be published by the newspapers,its only fair.

  • 111.rangerman: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:21 am

    @Skeppie-97: howzit bud.

    had a pint at saders last night.

    still a great club.

  • 112.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:24 am

    howzit ranger
    saders a great club
    pft
    when I down in the valley again I will invite you for a Bluff dumpie at Quins.

  • 113.KWAGGA ROBERTSE: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:25 am

    @CharlesM-98: Howzit Charles. We’ll need to start settling a combination sooner rather than later. Only problem is this combo should be ‘manufactured’ to an extent as no current combo within the S15 franchises really grabs the attention.
    We have a similar problem at 4 and 5

  • 114.Gtown: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:25 am

    @gunther-36:

    Schalk’s playing for arsenal?????!!!!! ;) :D

  • 115.rangerman: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:26 am

    @Fern-112: haha, i enjoy quins too bud.

    bit of a drive though, saders is close and the club bar has an awesome vibe when its happening.

    i really enjoy it.

  • 116.Brads: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:27 am

    @munkiboi-108:
    The New Zealand TAB has Aus at $3.10 to pull off a win, while SA is expected to win with a pay out of $1.33 per $1
    Which is pretty much where I think the likely outcome will be, but I also expect the Aussies to get a bonus point, by losing within 7.
    A late flourish by the Wallabies is my prediction.

  • 117.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:28 am

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/7744363/No-charges-against-Baby-Black-over-rape-allegation

    ranger you know that a bluff dumpie is a quart of beer hey?

  • 118.rangerman: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:28 am

    fark, the rain has started here in pinetown.

    this is upsetting. the sea is clean and diveable for the first time in a month but this rain will screw that up sharpish.

    gonna have to knock off at 13h00 :lol:

  • 119.rangerman: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:29 am

    @Fern-117: ja.

    we call it a zululand dumpie but same same.

    drank those dumpies last night at saders. very pleasant.

  • 120.Skeppie: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:30 am

    @rangerman-111: Warms my heart Ranger….I dont get to see the club much now that I live up in the big smoke.

  • 121.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:30 am

    ranger,wont there be a lot of johhny’s around?
    A 7 day cruise up to moz is on the books for dec,celebrating a mates bday in maputo.never been,stopping at some island aswell.

  • 122.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:32 am

    Skeppie,you okes were a bunch of metros exual soft c ocks back in the day when we played you okes.
    closests i ever came to playing clubrugby in the cape:-)

  • 123.Skeppie: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:32 am

    @Fern-112: Fern Fern fern…Ranger is a classy man. Why would he settle for a Bluff Dumpie?

  • 124.Skeppie: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:34 am

    @Fern-122: HAHAHA Come on Fern at least tell me what years you played.

  • 125.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:34 am

    Skeppie sure he is classy in his league.
    Chunt du Fernly however is the pinnacle of class,manners,looks,wit,humour and kindness.

  • 126.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:35 am

    94 to 98

  • 127.katman: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:36 am

    “I look into their eyes, shake their hand, pat their back and wish them luck, but inside I am thinking: I am going to bury you!”

    - Steve Ballesteros on the Ryder Cup

    Ha ha, Go Europe.

  • 128.ryecatcher: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:37 am

    OZ blogs pleased with their crowd attendances.They say they have
    more people attending(and heres the rub)PER CAPITA.thanSA.or NZ

  • 129.The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:37 am

    @Fern-95: I told you this would be the case the day it was reported, and I believe I got a lot of stick from people who were feeling desperately sorry for the silly tartlet.
    It’s about time these young jamtarts chicks were held accountable for their actions and allegations…..

  • 130.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:38 am

    @129
    I said all along let us wait for all the facts before judging people

  • 131.Skeppie: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:39 am

    @Fern-126: Did you play with the Van Rensburg boeties?

  • 132.rangerman: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:40 am

    @Skeppie-120: thats pretty sad man.

    do you miss playing prop?

    @Fern-121: johnnies must watch out. i will kick them in the face.

    especially if they try to take my fish, i dont stand for that sh it.

    moz is awesome. going for 10 days in feb.

    @Skeppie-123: :lol:

  • 133.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:40 am

    Nope,know them.Clinton is in the Cape somewhere coaching school rugby and studying to become a teacher last I heard.Their dad passed on about 6 weeks ago.
    I played thirds

  • 134.Skeppie: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:44 am

    @rangerman-132: Prop? The horror…I must be better looking than that?

  • 135.Transformation: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:48 am

    today i saw the new southern kings range rover sports, very nice i must say!

  • 136.rangerman: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:49 am

    @Skeppie-134: so you dont go by the morgs moniker?

    well i know of only a few guys who played saders who live in jhb these days and are mates with hanks.

    you didnt own a bike shop at one stage did you?

    p.s. have you heard from m on ke y lately? the flippen oke dissapeared into the wilds of botswana with his poppie and i havent heard from him in years.

  • 137.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:51 am

    Ranger,who did you play for?

  • 138.Skeppie: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:53 am

    @rangerman-136: Nah, although I beleive that man is highly intelligent and very good looking. Garth and Gary sold the bike shop a few years back and now also live in Jozi. Ja I see Monk whenever he is in town but he is like the scarlet pimpernel these days.

  • 139.rangerman: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:55 am

    @Fern-137: ag after school i was in PMB varsity and then in the hlatini for 7 years but when i moved back to durbs i played 3 seasons for old boys.

    enjoyed it but cant say i set the world alight :lol:

  • 140.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:56 am

    Ranger,clubrugby was still fun and had gees back then.

  • 141.Skeppie: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:57 am

    @rangerman-139: The “Ranger” is not just a nic!

  • 142.rangerman: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:57 am

    @Skeppie-138: ja and that man hates a beer like no other before him :lol:

  • 143.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 10:59 am

    Who did HG play for?

  • 144.rangerman: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 11:00 am

    @Fern-140: ag its still good bud lots of my mates still play.

    i watch :lol:

    @Skeppie-141: nah, worked with m on key at londoz so i know poppie as well.

  • 145.Skeppie: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 11:03 am

    @rangerman-144: Was she at Londo’s? I thought monks only met her when he moved from there. That was when he was known as Grant Vartie.

  • 146.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 11:03 am

    Only club I belong to now is a runningclub and soon a cycling club,my mates only belong to gholf and drinking clubs:-)

  • 147.rangerman: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 11:09 am

    @Skeppie-145: haha, garnt varty lmao!

    nah, he met her there.

    she is a fiery one lol.

    ok, i am going diving and beers after. have a good day all!

  • 148.Fern: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 11:09 am

    Cheers all,gotta roll.Have a nice weekend.
    Go Bokke!

  • 149.Skeppie: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 11:10 am

    @rangerman-147: Cheers Ranger have a good one!

  • 150.Craven: Reply to this comment
    28 Sep 2012, 12:58 pm

    Can’t wait for Elton and Jaco to get some gametime as well.

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