Preview: Boks vs Wallabies
28 Sep 2012
JON CARDINELLI previews the Rugby Championship battle at Loftus Versfeld and picks a winner.
How can we lose to this Wallabies side? Yes, I know, it was the same question I asked when I previewed the Test in Perth. But come on, how did the Boks blow a 13-3 advantage and lose to a side sans so many Test stars?
Surely it can’t happen again. For starters, the Wallabies are even worse off in terms of personnel, as Will Genia and Quade Cooper are no longer available. Then there’s the welcome fact that this Test will be played at Loftus, a venue that has never witnessed a Wallabies victory.
So let’s rephrase the question. Instead of asking, how the Boks can lose to this rudderless bunch of B-teamers, let’s ask, what makes this Wallabies side believe they can win at Loftus for the first time in 50 years of trying?
Do they have the pack? Certainly not. The statistics show that they are one of the weakest and most penalised teams in the competition as far as scrumming is concerned. They may boast a lineout master in Nathan Sharpe, but that set piece is not exactly spoiled for options and Tatafu-Polota Nau is notorious for failing to find his jumpers.
How about the breakdowns and mauls? The Boks have lacked discipline in this area if we consider the overall stats for the tournament, but there was a marked improvement in that previous Test in Dunedin. They seem to be settling as a forward unit, and produced a far more powerful and accurate showing in this area.
They will threaten the Wallabies when they maul from the lineout. And now that they’re fielding a more balanced back row, they will enjoy dominance at the collisions on attack, and trouble the Wallabies when the visitors take the ball into contact. In this respect, except the versatile Francois Louw to thrive as a ball-stealer and momentum-killer.
The performance of the pack is all important. The Boks need to establish dominance up front and slow the Wallabies down if they are going to record their first win against Australasian opposition in 2012. There should be no change in tactics, no matter who starts at flyhalf. Playing expansively will only play into the Wallabies’ hands.
The spotlight is on Johan Goosen when it should really be on the Bok pack as a collective. If they can overpower their Aussie counterparts, and men like Louw can prevent the Wallabies halfbacks from getting quick ball, then the Boks will have the opportunity to implement their game plan.
The Bok pack laid this platform in Dunedin, and were unfortunately let down by their halfbacks. Ruan Pienaar and new flyhalf Goosen will need to deliver a sharper showing at Loftus, both in terms of option-taking and execution. They should look to steer play into the opposition half, and when they do move the ball, Goosen will be under pressure to create space for his outside backs.
It’s is so damn obvious it’s almost a crime to say it, but the Boks need to take their opportunities this weekend. The Wallabies are the cockroaches of Test rugby (and I mean that as a compliment). They’re the kings of ugly wins. They’re capable of sustaining the most savage of beatings up front and somehow surviving to eke out undeserved victories.
The bottom line is that the Boks must kick their goals and convert their try-scoring chances. In this respect, Heyneke Meyer will be asking for more of the same from his forwards, that is a performance that will lay the platform, and far more from his halfbacks Pienaar and Goosen.
The Boks shouldn’t lose this game, but it is a possibility. They blew two great opportunities to win Down Under, and it is because of those mental lapses that they won’t take anything for granted at Loftus.
I’m not excusing those soft moments, but I am saying that the second-half performance in Pretoria will be under scrutiny. Playing in front of a partisan crowd should help in the last minutes of the game, as no matter the scoreline, a contest with Aussies is always in the balance until the final whistle.
But I believe they will pass the test. There is too much quality in that Bok side, and a fair bit of experience, for them to lose at home. To what degree they win is the real question. I’m not expecting a clinical performance, but I am expecting them to do enough to give South African supporters a reason to smile for the first time in two months.
PREDICTION: Boks by 10
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jaco Taute, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Johan Goosen, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermuelen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Coenie Oosthuizen, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Marcel Coetzee, 20 Elton Jantjies, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
Wallabies – 15 Berrick Barnes, 14 Dominic Shipperley, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Radike Samo, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Nathan Sharpe (c), 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota Nau, 1 Benn Robinson
Subs: 16 Saia Fainga’a, 17 James Slipper, 18 Rob Simmons, 19 Scott Higginbotham, 20 Liam Gill, 21 Brett Sheehan, 22 Anthony Fainga’a
Follow JC on Twitter
Follow SA Rugby magazine on Twitter
150 Comments
Pages: [1] 2 3 » Show All
27 Sep 2012, 11:56 am
Should be more than 10
27 Sep 2012, 12:08 pm
If they lose on saturday Meyer will be shafted.
Thats my prediction.
27 Sep 2012, 12:15 pm
Aus Dragons have opted for a 5 / 2 split on the bench. Beale, Barnes & AAC can play multiple positions
27 Sep 2012, 12:21 pm
@Hammer-2: Don’t agree, that would be very unfair.
The man has made certain changes that the whole country has been clamouring for and should therefore not be castigated when they lose to the current No 2s in the world.
27 Sep 2012, 12:23 pm
@2-Hammer
Oddly It is a paradox to say that it is too (early or late) to do that. The quality’s suddenly there – Duane, Louw, Goosen, an in form Habana, Alberts, Frans. HM needs to go forth on THIS path
27 Sep 2012, 12:41 pm
If we win the breakdown we’ll win the match… Aussies always play the refs interpretation on the day and we get our panties in a twist.
27 Sep 2012, 12:43 pm
@viewer-5: There are still more first choice players to join the squad in future. JPP, Brussouw, Bismarck, Burger.
Would of liked CJ maybe to get a bench spot. He is experienced and in his prime as a prop. Or did he just return from injury like Coenie?
27 Sep 2012, 12:44 pm
Just imagine we had Bismarck against Aus and Nz overseas. Would that have made the difference?
27 Sep 2012, 12:46 pm
Pretoria the past few days has had great weather. Not a cloud in the sky. We could see a high scoring fixture
27 Sep 2012, 12:48 pm
@Lions_Soutie-6: You hit the nail on the head, Boet.
27 Sep 2012, 12:49 pm
@Sasuke-7: CJ is hond kak – he adds nothing other than caps…
27 Sep 2012, 12:49 pm
@7 Sasuke. True, it appears a bounty of success is about to fall onto HM’s lap
27 Sep 2012, 13:02 pm
Boks, with Bekker and Etzebeth as starting locks, look to have a very formidable forward pack.
The new Victor and Bakkies………………………………………time will tell.
This is close to the Bok side I would select.
27 Sep 2012, 13:22 pm
i’m gonna sit this one out…
27 Sep 2012, 13:52 pm
put Lambie at 15 and then i will be happy
27 Sep 2012, 13:53 pm
@BrumbiesBoy-10: Refs are ignoring skew scrum feeds again and aren’t allowing the attacking team time to place the ball. Fetchers have a role to play, fortunately we have Louw this time.
Spies must be relieved not to be playing so that no one can blame him.
27 Sep 2012, 13:57 pm
@cane-13: I’m still not 100% convinced with Etzebeth. He is a physical freak but fear we are rushing him too soon. Bekker has got some competition for the position which will do him well.
27 Sep 2012, 14:00 pm
Any news on JPP? I wonder if Meyer will select Hougaard at 11 or 9 when he returns?
27 Sep 2012, 14:00 pm
How ancient Samo can start ahead of Higginbotham is beyond me.
27 Sep 2012, 14:06 pm
@ Lions Soutie
Hell, 20 y.o; 2 metres tall; ±120 kg & a single digit body fat percentage !
27 Sep 2012, 14:21 pm
Since they only have 2 backs on the bench, Id like for Duane to bring the pain to one of the Aussie backs early in the game. 2 would be better.
27 Sep 2012, 14:24 pm
@Lions_Soutie-16: Agreed, it seems to be going in under the locks’ feet more often than not.
Another thing is also the skew lineout feeds.
And what gets me the most is when the occasional ref blows the flanks for putting their hands on the ground at scrumtime, I mean, FFS where’s the oke supposed to put his outside arm???
Crazy.
27 Sep 2012, 14:29 pm
@RainbowBanana-18:
JPP should be available next week but I doubt he’ll be slected without any gametime.
27 Sep 2012, 14:32 pm
Boks never win when it really matters. They need to win away. Fact is, they f—– up big time overseas: draw, loss, loss. I don’ think a win at Loftus against a weak Wallaby side means much, and I don’t think we should fool ourselves that it does.
27 Sep 2012, 14:38 pm
Cane, there’s nothing ‘formidable’ about the Bok pack. Give me a break. When last have they out scrummed, out-played, out-muscled anyone. And then, if they have, there’s the little matter of winning. They don’t win.
27 Sep 2012, 14:49 pm
Aaah ok so why bother coming and posting if a win a against a weak Wallaby side doesnt count or matter ? Any win at Bok level matters .. as does a loss !
27 Sep 2012, 15:06 pm
Anybody know whose reffing this clash of the overrated Southern Hemisphere titans?
27 Sep 2012, 15:41 pm
@27: Allain Rolland is the referee
27 Sep 2012, 16:25 pm
I am expecting a big victory for the Boks.
I wasn’t expecting a victory until the team was announced.
27 Sep 2012, 17:03 pm
Jp pietersen is available EOYT… So is ralepelle,burger,spies and smith
27 Sep 2012, 17:41 pm
If the Wallabies win this Test I will write complimentary posts about Pooper.
27 Sep 2012, 18:13 pm
Most of the Boks are sea level based players, no advantage in this department
The Wallabies are woeful and Beale at 10 makes them even worse, the Referee already collectewd his Test ‘fees’ into his off shore acc.
Jantjie and JdJ to provide the entertainment, Kirchner will provide the turnovers
Boks by 16 point and above.
27 Sep 2012, 18:18 pm
@xtremebull-30:
If Smith is off overseas, I doubt whether HM will pick him, especially as he won’t be match fit.
27 Sep 2012, 18:18 pm
Sweet Revenge will be the order of the day. Beef up the braai and unchain the HiFi.
27 Sep 2012, 18:19 pm
@xtremebull-30:
Oh, and Spies is also out until next year. You should really keep up with the news.
27 Sep 2012, 18:30 pm
@xtremebull-30:
I wouldn’t go holding your breath over Jian Smith making the team.
Burger is also a gooner for the rest of the year.
I have a funny feeling it may be even worse than that.
27 Sep 2012, 21:22 pm
“let’s ask, what makes this Wallabies side believe they can win at Loftus for the first time in 50 years of trying?”
50 years may sound an astonishingly long time until one remembers that this will be only the SIXTH time of trying.
No comparision to, say, 24 times of trying in just 10 more years for the Welsh to beat the Blacks since their last triumph.
27 Sep 2012, 21:27 pm
And ironically it will be also the sixth time of trying for the Boks to taste the victory vs those wily Ozzies. 5 straight losses in half a century in one venue vs 5 straight losses in mere 2 years.
27 Sep 2012, 21:51 pm
@BrumbiesBoy-4:
If Bok were to lose this weekend then Meyer should be held to account. He has selected the team that should do the job and the only weaknesses I see is the inexperience at five eight, yet wonderful potential, and Meyers own reluctance to engage his backline without resorting to an endless kick and chase, which I could be wrong about, yet I have this nagging feeling that Meyer will not change the gameplan and will continue down the same path because he feels closeted in the security of playing at his Loftus.
27 Sep 2012, 22:02 pm
@Te Rangatira-39: I’m hoping that Goosen will simply refuse to kick the ball as much as Morne, and Meyer won’t be able to hold it against him if the Boks are winning.
27 Sep 2012, 22:14 pm
@gunther-36: Juan reportedly looking at a Top 14 move, sounds like he’s ready to cash out
27 Sep 2012, 22:21 pm
@kaksioek-40:
Me too, heres hoping Goosen has a good game, firstly nailing his kicks for goal, secondly putting his outsides into space, thirdly applying consistent pressure with his kicks, fourthly look after his body and tackle only when necessary.
28 Sep 2012, 01:52 am
Goosen destined to become the Quade Cooper of South African rugby..
I see many people are talking of plus 15 point win for the Bokkes, these same people suggested a 20 point win for the ABs a few weeks ago..
talk about the tail wagging the dog..
Aussies to win by 12, Beale a revelation for them at 1st 5/8 and they have a forward pack that will compete., coupled with Coopers outbursts bringing the team together while overseas… these type of things tend to unify a side..
@kaksioek-31: start getting the superlatives ready… thanks in advance..
28 Sep 2012, 02:24 am
@Sasuke-8:
Nope, not at all.
@Nils-37:
lol, 50 years = 6 games.
Way to make it sound alot more impressive.
28 Sep 2012, 02:49 am
@Sasuke-8: NO
28 Sep 2012, 02:52 am
@poppa69-43: Hey Poppa – right on my man. So if the Boks lose (and I am picking the Aussies to win) just wait for the moaning and whingeing to start – it will be the refs fault – always happens. I say this because the gameplan is not going to change and the Aussies will just love running it back at them. Go the wallabies
28 Sep 2012, 02:53 am
@Nils-37: Hey mate I think you have got this one wrong re: the AB’s vs Wales. The Welsh last one a test against the AB’s in 1953 – thats over 60years ago, not sure where you get your stats from. 60years is much better than 50 and only 6 attempts…..I wonder who the better team is?
28 Sep 2012, 02:55 am
@Hondo-32: well just as I thought…Jappies cant get away from blaming a ref – any ref – I guess it is just to cover your insecurities and your closed-eye view of rugby. The Boks will be beat, mark my words, BEAT by a Team with more injured players than anyone else…
28 Sep 2012, 02:57 am
@Trevorr-25: Hear hear Trevorr – I cant believe the posts out of Jappie-land saying how great the Bok pack was in Dunedin, I saw the game and I actually think if was about 50/50….but of course the AB’s showed their superior fitness and finishing – end of story Jappies…
28 Sep 2012, 03:00 am
@poppa69-43: Kia ora poppa, you don’t serious believe that, do you?
Looking at it objectively rather than simply trying to wind people up, this Aussie side is seriously weakened by injuries, and playing away from home. They are up against a very abrasive forward pack (as evidenced by the Dunedin game, where the Bok forwards edged the AB’s) and a backline that is pretty good defensively if unexciting on attack. The Boks must be odds on favourites to win this.
There has been nothing to suggest that Goosen is flakey, actually the young man looks extremely solid. Pat Lambie is another kettle of fish – he has looked flakey at full back when under pressure, but Pat Lambie isn’t playing!
No, I don’t think you believe the Aussies will win by 12, how could you?
Pages: [1] 2 3 » Show All
Have your say
You must be logged in to post a comment.