Preview: Boks vs Wallabies
28 Sep 2012
JON CARDINELLI previews the Rugby Championship battle at Loftus Versfeld and picks a winner.
How can we lose to this Wallabies side? Yes, I know, it was the same question I asked when I previewed the Test in Perth. But come on, how did the Boks blow a 13-3 advantage and lose to a side sans so many Test stars?
Surely it can’t happen again. For starters, the Wallabies are even worse off in terms of personnel, as Will Genia and Quade Cooper are no longer available. Then there’s the welcome fact that this Test will be played at Loftus, a venue that has never witnessed a Wallabies victory.
So let’s rephrase the question. Instead of asking, how the Boks can lose to this rudderless bunch of B-teamers, let’s ask, what makes this Wallabies side believe they can win at Loftus for the first time in 50 years of trying?
Do they have the pack? Certainly not. The statistics show that they are one of the weakest and most penalised teams in the competition as far as scrumming is concerned. They may boast a lineout master in Nathan Sharpe, but that set piece is not exactly spoiled for options and Tatafu-Polota Nau is notorious for failing to find his jumpers.
How about the breakdowns and mauls? The Boks have lacked discipline in this area if we consider the overall stats for the tournament, but there was a marked improvement in that previous Test in Dunedin. They seem to be settling as a forward unit, and produced a far more powerful and accurate showing in this area.
They will threaten the Wallabies when they maul from the lineout. And now that they’re fielding a more balanced back row, they will enjoy dominance at the collisions on attack, and trouble the Wallabies when the visitors take the ball into contact. In this respect, except the versatile Francois Louw to thrive as a ball-stealer and momentum-killer.
The performance of the pack is all important. The Boks need to establish dominance up front and slow the Wallabies down if they are going to record their first win against Australasian opposition in 2012. There should be no change in tactics, no matter who starts at flyhalf. Playing expansively will only play into the Wallabies’ hands.
The spotlight is on Johan Goosen when it should really be on the Bok pack as a collective. If they can overpower their Aussie counterparts, and men like Louw can prevent the Wallabies halfbacks from getting quick ball, then the Boks will have the opportunity to implement their game plan.
The Bok pack laid this platform in Dunedin, and were unfortunately let down by their halfbacks. Ruan Pienaar and new flyhalf Goosen will need to deliver a sharper showing at Loftus, both in terms of option-taking and execution. They should look to steer play into the opposition half, and when they do move the ball, Goosen will be under pressure to create space for his outside backs.
It’s is so damn obvious it’s almost a crime to say it, but the Boks need to take their opportunities this weekend. The Wallabies are the cockroaches of Test rugby (and I mean that as a compliment). They’re the kings of ugly wins. They’re capable of sustaining the most savage of beatings up front and somehow surviving to eke out undeserved victories.
The bottom line is that the Boks must kick their goals and convert their try-scoring chances. In this respect, Heyneke Meyer will be asking for more of the same from his forwards, that is a performance that will lay the platform, and far more from his halfbacks Pienaar and Goosen.
The Boks shouldn’t lose this game, but it is a possibility. They blew two great opportunities to win Down Under, and it is because of those mental lapses that they won’t take anything for granted at Loftus.
I’m not excusing those soft moments, but I am saying that the second-half performance in Pretoria will be under scrutiny. Playing in front of a partisan crowd should help in the last minutes of the game, as no matter the scoreline, a contest with Aussies is always in the balance until the final whistle.
But I believe they will pass the test. There is too much quality in that Bok side, and a fair bit of experience, for them to lose at home. To what degree they win is the real question. I’m not expecting a clinical performance, but I am expecting them to do enough to give South African supporters a reason to smile for the first time in two months.
PREDICTION: Boks by 10
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jaco Taute, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Johan Goosen, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermuelen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Coenie Oosthuizen, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Marcel Coetzee, 20 Elton Jantjies, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
Wallabies – 15 Berrick Barnes, 14 Dominic Shipperley, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Radike Samo, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Nathan Sharpe (c), 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota Nau, 1 Benn Robinson
Subs: 16 Saia Fainga’a, 17 James Slipper, 18 Rob Simmons, 19 Scott Higginbotham, 20 Liam Gill, 21 Brett Sheehan, 22 Anthony Fainga’a
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150 Comments
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28 Sep 2012, 03:03 am
@JohnPierre-49: To me, the Bok forwards had a clear edge in some areas of play (they got over the gainline on the crash ball, we didn’t; their maul made plenty of metres, ours made none; they secured more turnover ball at the breakdown than us). On the other hand, we clearly won the lineout battle, we won the scrums in the last 20 mins, and our forwards were more skillful in the loose (e.g. in the build up to the Dagg try).
My assessment would be 52/48 to the Boks overall, giving them a slight edge but not decisive.
28 Sep 2012, 04:06 am
According to the stats the Boks got dusted a bit in the scrums and line outs, but cleaned up in the mauls and did better on turnovers. Bok’s conceded more penalties. Other than the Bok’s mauling success, their big win was in the turnovers (14 vs 9), but they gave that possession back in lost scrums, lost lineouts, and penalties. AB’s will want to look at the turnovers before the return match I am picking, and Boks will look at discipline and set pieces, but not much between the two packs in total.
28 Sep 2012, 06:14 am
Not sure where this guy is getting a 15pt win from. The Aussies are a stronger team than that. Beale is extremely dangerous and wont be kicking it everytime, he’s one of the best attacking players in the world. The Aussie forwards, while not dominating have done enough to compete and get their backline ball. If the Boks win it wont be by 15pts, it’ll be a tight tight game
28 Sep 2012, 06:35 am
@52…Aliboy…the Abs conceded some weak turnovers in that game, remember Messam getting held up in a maul,Savea becoming isoleted,Cruden missing touch from a penalty
28 Sep 2012, 06:41 am
The little mistakes allowed the Abs to gain no momentum thus applying no concerted pressure
28 Sep 2012, 07:59 am
@Te Rangatira-39: Agree with you about not using his backline and his endless kick and chase tactics, but he can’t be nailed for putting inexperience in the side at this point in time.
I read a report last night which said that young Goosen has alledgedly been told to: “play it as you see it,” and if that is true then we’re in for some surprises, methinks.
28 Sep 2012, 08:08 am
@corporal punishment-50: Poppa was probably very anxious during the NZ game. His forwards took a battering. Must have praised the gods for Morne Steyn’s poor kicking performance.
The Boks have been improving since the Argentina away game, they should win tomorrow. They must adapt to the ref’s interpretation or lose.
28 Sep 2012, 08:11 am
@Lions_Soutie-57: not at all, your boys were desperate and ours started to believe the press… come the return match, our forwards will be up for it, and should ensure the same result..
Goosen will be a shattered man after this weekend, his future in tatters as the Aussies continue to swamp his channel..
feel for the young man, Im guessing he wont last the whole game, oh wait, he hasnt played a full game in how long? now hes carrying the nation on his shoulders?
eish… love the way hes being managed, truly… what a waste of talent..
28 Sep 2012, 08:13 am
Pierre Spies will not travel to Europe with the Springboks in November due to the slow recovery of a finger injury.
Spies underwent successful surgery on the fracture to the joint in his finger in August and was hence ruled out of the Rugby Championship has been on a rehabilitation programme and running at Loftus since.On Thursday the Bulls captain confirmed that he will be sidelined for the remainder of the year.”I was hoping to [play again this year], but the finger is healing slowly, so next year is more likely,” Spies told SuperSport.The news will come as blow for Springbok coach Heyneke Meyer, who is short on options at number eight since Ryan Kankowski’s departure for Japan.
28 Sep 2012, 08:14 am
Pierre Spies
will not travel to Europe with the Springboks in November due to the slow recovery of a finger injury.
Spies underwent successful surgery on the fracture to the joint in his finger in August and was hence ruled out of the Rugby Championship has been on a rehabilitation programme and running at Loftus since.On Thursday the Bulls captain confirmed that he will be sidelined for the remainder of the year.
I was hoping to [play again this year], but the finger is healing slowly, so next year is more likely, Spies told SuperSport.The news will come as blow for Springbok coach Heyneke Meyer, who is short on options at number eight since Ryan Kankowski’s departure for Japan.
28 Sep 2012, 08:17 am
Blarry mobile mod does my tits in! Not posted, not posted, posted… Make up ur uncompatible mind!
Enjoy ur extended recovery Spies! We are all sure u will come back a new found player under Meyere.. Literally.. Morne on top..
TFIF
28 Sep 2012, 08:24 am
“They’re capable of sustaining the most savage of beatings up front and somehow surviving to eke out undeserved victories.”
I can’t agree, that is even more deserved win. That is like streetfight where big baddie pounds other guy with his big fists left, right, center and yet he somehow stays on his feet and then kicks him in the balls to make baddie fall like sack. Undeserved my arse.
28 Sep 2012, 08:27 am
All I am looking forwartd s not hearing the same old poepolle on here moaning about Morne. Was getting really tired of it.
28 Sep 2012, 08:34 am
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE-63: Kan nou konsentreer om oor Krusty te moan!
28 Sep 2012, 08:36 am
@Guns-61:
28 Sep 2012, 08:37 am
Day three of strike
So far so good
Aluta continua
28 Sep 2012, 08:41 am
@Guns-59: Hallelujah.Praise be to the Spies finger injury. The great man has been through the wars- what a grevious, crippling wound to incur (outside the field of duty).
28 Sep 2012, 08:43 am
@corporal punishment-50:
CP when it comes to South Africa pops have zero objectivity, he is too busy returning serve.
28 Sep 2012, 09:08 am
@Dawn-66: You at home?
28 Sep 2012, 09:10 am
@Spiesisworthless1-67: Point in case see post 63. Watching rugby where Spies is involved must be hell for you as your eyes cannot move beyond his every move so you can moan like an old dried up Pretoria west tart.
28 Sep 2012, 09:12 am
@trupisero-64: Ja nee kyk die ding maak my fokking klaar!!@Slartibartfast-68: Groet jy nie fokker?
28 Sep 2012, 09:15 am
Hate being in a position to write off an Ausie side. They are sneaky critters and always surprise you. How many times have we seen this movie before?
You cant help being forced into thinking that a Bok side should beat this Ausie side at altitude though. I mean, they dont have 5 of their very best players. Horwill, Oconnor, Genia, Oconner and Moore!
Should be a Bok win but these little ******** are crafty.
28 Sep 2012, 09:15 am
@stormersboy-69:
Indeed
Showing solidarity
28 Sep 2012, 09:16 am
*b a st ards
28 Sep 2012, 09:20 am
@Dawn-73: Wow. enjoy the cricket!
28 Sep 2012, 09:20 am
@John Galt-72: Biggest name missing is Pockock…biggest threat to Boks for sure!
28 Sep 2012, 09:22 am
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE-70: It’s hell for the team I support; watching a 7 man Bok pack over the last few years has been pretty grim. Spies, like Steyn, has been dragged along for far too long. Next Bull to walk the plank is Sideshow Bob.
28 Sep 2012, 09:24 am
@72 John Halt…if the Aussies can deliver on those flat passes with their ball runners hitting holes
then they are a chance
28 Sep 2012, 09:26 am
the only way the ozzies could win this, is if the boks once again blow chance after chance. that is how it was in our past 3 losses to these okes.
If this is sorted…..the ozzies will get hurt badly.
If not, we could once again lose.
the boks need to start well and get some points on the board quickly to settle the nerves.
28 Sep 2012, 09:27 am
The closest I ever came to physically abusing a female was when I punched a oke from crusaders in deben during a club game.
Oh my sack those okes squeel like chicks.
Where is Skeppie,I need some answers.
28 Sep 2012, 09:29 am
So glad they caught the scum who murdered Corrie Sanders. To shoot and kill a man who is lying over his daughter to protect her is the most cowardly and despicable act. They are less than human, and I wish we could hang them high.
Remember this moment? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqEANlBbhsA
28 Sep 2012, 09:30 am
Why is this entire thread in bold? The interweb in a foul mood this morning, or can I blame it on Heyneke Meyer?
What’s with the writing the Wallabies off again? Honestly, one would think we never lose to the Wallabies ***rollingeyes***.
Sneaky little fur ball Wobblies have our number, our address and our bank account to boot. Yes, at altitude, with this run on team we have a fair chance of beating them, but this “we will, we should” beat them – is totalkakandfantasy considering our recent and fuckingshameful record against them.
28 Sep 2012, 09:34 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-82: We have been their b*tches for some time now. Hopefully tomorrow we can begin correcting that sad state of affairs!
28 Sep 2012, 09:34 am
@Brigadier Van Zyl-79: Yeah,I’m hoping the Bok backline will look pretty slick with Goosen commanding it,expecting JdV to come into his own too.
28 Sep 2012, 09:36 am
@katman-81: Dude I can’t even begin to express the things I’ve done to those ***** in my head a thousand times
Barbaric backward farkin animals who should be butchered for dog food.
It’s the minority of scum dragging the rest of the country down with them
28 Sep 2012, 09:38 am
@85
The less the gov is doing the more the people are going to take law into their own hands.About a month ago a oke was beaten to death for stealing clothes from washing lines.
Police asked some questions and no one saw or heard anything.
Beautifull
28 Sep 2012, 09:41 am
@72.John Galt
You really rate that O´Connor chappy. You reckon the Aussies are going to miss him twice?
28 Sep 2012, 09:47 am
@umfezi-87:
Ha, sorry meant Cooper.
@Superbru-76:
Sheez how did I leave him out!? Huge loss.
Seriously if the Boks dont take this there is something rotten in the state of Denmark.
28 Sep 2012, 09:50 am
@katman-81: Farking cowards are not even from here. Was going to play with him in a golf day on the 18th. Sad indeed.
28 Sep 2012, 09:52 am
@Superbru-84: Bud JdV is hanging on by skin on his teeth. His saving grace is the captaincy. Gives us fackall on attack.
28 Sep 2012, 09:52 am
http://keo.co.za/2012/09/28/preview-boks-vs-wallabies/comment-page-2/#comment-2236930:
True, we really should win this one comfortably. As you said, though, the Aussies are crafty little critters, so we´ll still hve to play well.
28 Sep 2012, 09:53 am
@Atreides-85: Ja, it’s crazy how cheap life has become to some people. They view their own lives as wasted and therefore disposable, so they can’t imagine that for someone else life has so much value, with family and friends and love. They can’t start to see the big hole they leave when they mockingly say “shoot the big one” and pull the trigger.
28 Sep 2012, 09:55 am
Sorry brus and sistas, I´m new here. Whip me wif a blender and call me thick, but how the hell do I reply to a comment so that just the poster and post number link shows – like in all the other reply posts?
28 Sep 2012, 09:56 am
@umfezi-93: Little return arrow on the right
28 Sep 2012, 09:59 am
I see the SAP has decided not to charge the baby black for rape,charges has been dropped.I wish him all of the best for his future and hope he can put this very unfortuante incident behind him.Charges must be laid against the female who made these allegations.
28 Sep 2012, 10:01 am
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE-94: Thanks. Didn´t even see the thing.
28 Sep 2012, 10:01 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-82: True, true ,true but that will all change this weekend. Our forwards will apply some consistency and our recent fragile mental make up will hold with the clean highveld air.
28 Sep 2012, 10:05 am
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE-90: Hi Kwagga, yes I know but he is not a natural 13 imo. Although I’d like Frans Steyn to play, it will be interesting to see Taute next to JdV: the only problem – they’ve never played together
28 Sep 2012, 10:09 am
SA should win this encounter, simply because they should.
History tells me that.
But Dear Lord, what is this notion that it will be as a result of Goosen.
So I assume if the unexpected happens, it will be Goosen’s fault as well?
Just how broad do you expect your youngsters shoulders to be?
28 Sep 2012, 10:09 am
@97 Skeppie
Please respond to post #80
Thank you
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