Brutal & brainy Boks will triumph
5 Oct 2012
MARK KEOHANE says the Boks can beat the All Blacks if they are not suckered into turning Saturday’s Rugby Championship finale into a free-flowing spectacle.
Heyneke Meyer’s Boks showed the capacity to use the ball against the Wallabies, just as they did at times against England earlier in the season. There is no need to try and match the All Blacks to appease neutrals who like to see all out attack.
To beat the All Blacks will take greater discipline and won’t be as easy on the eye for those who believe that the game should only be played one way.
The appeal of rugby union is that every team has a different style. Former Wallabies coach Eddie Jones once joked to the Bok players (when he worked with them during the 2007 World Cup) that if Australia had South Africa’s forwards and Fourie du Preez at scrumhalf the flyhalf would be lucky to get the ball.
South Africa’s strength has always been when the forwards, collectively, produce a pressured 80-minute display that suffocates the opposition attack. The opposition always talks up South Africa’s physicality and often it has only undermined the Bok performance on the day as individuals have erred with brutish ill-discipline.
The All Blacks traditionally have always had to fight hardest against the Boks and England for victories – and it is because both England and South Africa more often than not have had the advantage up front in size and muscle.
New Zealand, over a century, have always countered this disadvantage with the most incredible attitude in the collisions and in the tackle. Great All Black teams have always shown dominance in defence and it has been as potent weapon as their natural ability to counter attack or score the most spectacular tries.
The All Blacks, in Port Elizabeth a year ago and again in Dunedin, have tried to up the tempo of the game from the outset and played high risk rugby regardless of field position. It has suited the Boks because South Africa, especially at home and in the first quarter of a Test, are most comfortable when asked to make tackles than to use the ball on attack.
Those who seek a playing style similar to the All Blacks won’t like it but playing the percentages is the most intelligent approach South Africa can adopt.
The All Blacks rely on quick phase ball and on quality ball from lineouts and when the Boks have enjoyed success against New Zealand is when there has been enough disruption to ensure a lack of fluency.
The All Blacks battled with the Pumas’ physicality in the 21-5 win in Wellington. The weather contributed to the struggle, but the Pumas got it wrong in trying to play an expansive style against the All Blacks a week ago. The Boks will get similarly punished if they are lured into a match in which the All Blacks are allowed to settle early.
The Boks can win at home and whatever the Kiwis may say the desperation for victory will be greater for the home team. The All Blacks have already won the Rugby Championship, they are mentally exhausted from the strain of having to win the World Cup at home and their tight five is the most vulnerable unit in what is a very good outfit.
The locks are young, the front row has looked tired and laboured and Jerome Kaino, as an imposing blindside flank, has not been replaced. Liam Messan is a good player but he does not possess the Test qualities of Kaino.
The All Blacks are the best team in the world and consistently have been since the game turned professional. But like any team they can be beaten and they usually lose one match a season. They won’t lose on the end-of-year northern hemisphere tour, so the customary defeat (which gives the rest of the world hope) must come in Soweto.
Richie McCaw, in his 112th Test, will be aiming for an unprecedented 100th Test victory. The statistic is incredible, given he has played the Boks and Wallabies 45 times home and away. McCaw is colossal to the All Blacks and he was the difference between the sides in Dunedin.
But the Bok pack must believe they are stronger and equipped to negate their All Black opponents. They also have to be disciplined.
Meyer has made no secret about his approach as coach. It will be Bulls-like rugby at home against the Crusaders, and it is a recipe that has mostly been successful.
This does not mean it has to be one-dimensional or boring. There is skill in mauling, there is skill in controlling the ball with the forwards and their is skill in a kicking game that is accurate and in which the chasers turn even average kicks into good ones.
The global game needs the Boks to win on Saturday, just to keep it interesting for a bit.
My heart says Boks by six or seven points. And my mind says the same. The only proviso is they maintain their discipline, retain 15 on the field and dominate the All Blacks tight five.
Victory certainly must not add to the illusion that the Boks are better than the All Blacks. They aren’t because they haven’t had the consistency or success on the road of the men in black.
See Saturday for what it is – a match the Boks must win and one the All Blacks would like to win.
Meyer, in victory, will have a foundation to take into the end-of-year tour and next year’s Rugby Championship.
The All Blacks were brilliant in victory at the same venue two yeas ago. They silenced 94 000 with a stunning last five minutes.
The quality of the All Blacks is to be admired and applauded but if there is one team that can make them look ordinary for 80 minutes a year it is an imposing Bok team.
It has happened way too little since 1992. The Boks, on Saturday, need a new story against the All Blacks, but they don’t need a new style of play.
Victory won’t make the Boks the best team in the world but it takes them a bit closer to the goal of being the best team in the world.
271 Comments
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5 Oct 2012, 19:09 pm
Some fun before the game – Haka Gangnam Style
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GECKos0Uk4o&feature=youtube_gdata_player
5 Oct 2012, 20:06 pm
Have just joined this site. Recommended to me by a SA mate. I agree with keo’s article. It identifies what is NZ’s soft underbelly – an ageing front row (O Franks aside) and inexperienced locks plus the absence of Kaino the enforcer. Messam is a flat track bully. The Blacks used to worry about conceding points in 3′s to SA. But SA now can score tries – a whole new headache.
5 Oct 2012, 20:36 pm
Penalty try nogal after 3 warnings. Don’t say you weren’t warned.
5 Oct 2012, 20:59 pm
@Dawn-150: cricinfo.com
6 Oct 2012, 00:09 am
@ jasper 152: which country do you support then? Obviously not NZ as if you were an all black fan, you would know that whitelock had stated twice as many tests as bekker includin a World Cup semi final and final; and that retallick and estebeth are debutants this year. So, actually, it is more likely that it will be the Bok line out under pressure, as it was in Dunedin.
Agree that messam is no kaino. He is too small for these confrontational physical games. However, the advantage the boks have in this area is balanced out by the greater experience of the all black back row and their better skill levels.
The front rows are even, with an advantage to the aB’s when the boks go to their bench.
If you take of your tinted glasses, you will see that this game is very finely balanced.
6 Oct 2012, 02:55 am
@blik-116: france lost to tonga,how can you call yourselves WC champs losing to tonga,so justice was done and we got the right result.payback for ’07.
6 Oct 2012, 03:07 am
@Dusky-111:
Sorry Dusky. If you are South African then your post is all lies…thicko
@blik-116:
You lost against OZ in semi final…we beat them easy.
You drew with Argentina, we hammered them.
You lost against Ozzie this year, we gave them a hiding and zipped them.
You have lost to Ireland 3 out of 4 games, we white washed themand have never lost to them
You have lost to France 3 out of 4 games as well.In the last 13 years France have only beaten us twice.
So do you think the Boks deserve to win……hahahaha
No one deserves to win or lose. You have to play to win and going by above, you guys have problems with that.
6 Oct 2012, 03:12 am
@dermie-156:
France lost 3 times @ RWC’11 and even Japan smelt the tantalizing odour of an upset for 60mins.
SA had the luckiest draw in the history of RWC’s in ’07, finding tougher games in Pool matches at RWC’11 where Wales were superior & Samoa were robbed of 15men as they pressed for the win – both victories handed on a plate by refereeing mistakes. That they complained about the ref after the Qter, despite not scoring 1 try with 70% possession, fell on unsympathetic ears.
The ABs crushed their victors in the Semi.
6 Oct 2012, 03:18 am
@The Donkeys Egg-158: well said
6 Oct 2012, 04:02 am
@The Donkeys Egg-158: NZ had the easiest group in 07 by a country mile.Go and take a look you fool.And in 07 nz complained about the ref after the qters and it also fell on unsympathetic ears.
6 Oct 2012, 04:14 am
@snivelling little kiwi pricks-160:
Funny thing was you guys applauded Barnes as you knew the ABs were the only ones that would take the Boks.
After all the complaints by the Kiwis about the Barnes,in 2010 the SA fans were complaining about Barnes being a useless ref cos the Ozzies beat them at home. In fact a few on here said they now understand what the kiwis were moaning about….lol
6 Oct 2012, 04:19 am
@snivelling little kiwi pricks-160: when your the number one team in the world rankings,you get an easier draw in WC pools,just reward.so to get an easier draw,be the no1 ranked team in the world.
6 Oct 2012, 04:24 am
@dermie-162:
They never knew this cos they only held #1 status for about 10 months in 2008, then lost it, then gained it back for 3 months in 2009 only to get slaughtered on the EOTY tour in 2009.
So in 10 years they have held the #1 spot for 13 months. Funny thing is 8 of those months there were no games played.
6 Oct 2012, 05:12 am
@dermie-162: I was responding to someone saying that SA had the easist draw in 07,and now you have also told him the kiwis had the easist draw,so there we have it.Done and dusted,thank you.
6 Oct 2012, 06:29 am
looking forward to a great game of rugby today. all the posturing and false bravado tells me that everyone else on the site expects it too. good morning everyone
6 Oct 2012, 06:46 am
The UK odds makers put the ABs now at 1:2!
The Boks will have to earn it this time and it won’t be easy, that scoundrel Rolland will be careful in his cheating while the Boks forwards are all sea level based, no altitude advantage here.
The 3 midgets on the Boks bench will not help, how about converting Spies to a wing?
6 Oct 2012, 07:13 am
as opposed to the giants in the ab’s backline
6 Oct 2012, 07:15 am
@Hondo-166:
Ab’s heavy favourites at the NZ TAB, how can this be the Bokke camp has told us at least a 1000 times this week that they would have won all their games but for bad goal kicking, coulda shoulda woulda is rife under Meyer, the bookies clearly think otherwise.
6 Oct 2012, 07:21 am
@NZINCHINA-168:
if the favourites win the bookies loose money
6 Oct 2012, 07:36 am
@mamma_lou-169:
Who you picking for tonight’s big match up Mamma?
6 Oct 2012, 07:41 am
my blood is green china
6 Oct 2012, 07:42 am
more than anything though i just want to see a great game of rugby and may the best team on the day win
6 Oct 2012, 08:16 am
@mamma_lou-171:
good to hear, good luck
6 Oct 2012, 08:17 am
Why is there so much talk about the South African missed opportunities I.e. goal kicking in Dunedin where as there is no talk about the All Blacks missed opportunities which counted as missed tries? Dropped balls, missed passes on plenty of occasions where there were tries on. I like this South African side I am quite the fan of a good 50 percent of the their players but to start rating them in such a high regard after a win against the Wallabies last week in what was by far the weakest Wallaby side this year is a bit premature. I hear a lot of talk about Springbok loosies but this All Blacks back 3 are still awesome. McCaw while aging, rather gracefully I might add has been outstanding this year. Read is easily still the best 8 at in the game still only 26 and Messam is actually performing well enough to have first dibs on the 6 jersey. While he is no Jerome Kaino(but who is) he has at least stepped up. Whitelock is a bloody good lock but we are missing Thorn next to him. I am sure Retallick will be starting more than Romano on the EOY tour. Our backs are far superior but I am still on that fond of Gear or Savea to be honest. Wouldn’t mind Ben Smith having a few starts out there. Hopefully Kahui shoulder can hold up for longer than 6 months when he is back. Big fan of Goosen and I am quite excited for the South Africans. Lets just hope he can step up in the tests matches. We saw how Cooper turned out for the Quade worshippers over in Australia didn’t we? New Zealand is slowly going through a transition faze over the next few years but I am sure we will cope. Woodcock, Hore, Mealamu, Smith, Nonu, McCaw, Carter, Messam. I really only see a few of these players lasting until 2015 and that’s being optimistic where as SA has already started on their road to RWC ’15
6 Oct 2012, 08:43 am
Morning Kiwis
6 Oct 2012, 08:44 am
@Jarred 174…Abs
6 Oct 2012, 08:47 am
I look forward to a day of wanger-swinging
6 Oct 2012, 09:19 am
“The All Blacks traditionally have always had to fight hardest against the Boks and England for victories …”
Complete ignorance for a rugby journalist and supposed kenner.
England’s record against the ABs is abysmal, i believe they have won only 6 times in their entire 100 year history – Oz and France have always offered more against the ABs. England’s side of 2002 was phenomenal however and beat the ABs will 13-men on the pitch.
However, there is still no place in the world like SA, and even now the world champs travel to SA, and everyone including their own fans reckons SA have a very good chance, maybe even favourites, no other country comes close.
It may very well be their test win run comes to an end and they dont get the record they seek later today, and their fans know it, which is why they get so nervous before they face the Bokke – rightfully so.
6 Oct 2012, 09:32 am
@Dawn-177: And plenty of “fend” comments no doubt ..
6 Oct 2012, 09:38 am
@Cab yes fork England…
Bok games are what the Abs are judged by.
6 Oct 2012, 09:38 am
And judged you will be. Judged and found wanting. Sorry.
6 Oct 2012, 09:39 am
You Yarpies must be feeling the pain by now. Going to have a sleep now and then get up and watch the AllBlacks take you apart. Have a wonderful debate, but it won’t change the result.
AllBlacks by 15
6 Oct 2012, 09:48 am
@cab-178:
I agree cab.
SA are really on their own in terms of being a consistent challenge to the AB’s, home and away.
Aus have had their moments over the years, just as SA have had their bad patches, but for consistency, SA are the toughest challenge NZ faces.
England are a joke. They have the most domestic players in the world, but import talent from around the globe that ends up stifling their own player pool opportunities. They really need to sort that out.
France are unpredictable. They can lose to the likes of Tonga one day and then turn up with all guns firing the next, as NZ has experienced over the last few years.
6 Oct 2012, 09:50 am
The bokke’s game plan of last week was accidental.. trying to perfect in one week may be asking too much.. HM is still trying to work out what happened and reconcile his vision of the Boks. He tried to his best to keep the black players off the park and will will probably struggle with those same replacements this week. Goosen was a passenger for most of last weeks game with Pienaar rescuing him on every second move. HM is the All Blacks secret weapon. They know that he will avoid making critical changes because its in his DNA to be a twat.
6 Oct 2012, 09:55 am
@katman-181:
Losing will not bring the sky crashing down on the AB’s, nor will it elevate the Bokke to number one status in the world.
All the silverware is locked away safe and sound.
6 Oct 2012, 09:56 am
The AB’s know that if they focus on Goosen and reduce him to a passenger within the first quarter, they will effectively be playing against 14 men as HM will not make a change before the 75th minute which leaves the possibility of the boks being reduced to 13 players if they get a yellow before then.
Hows that for Brains Mr Kokaine
6 Oct 2012, 09:57 am
@Brads-185: Is that the Bugle ? .. signalling retreat ??
6 Oct 2012, 09:58 am
@youknowwho-186: Man did Goosen run your cat over or something ..? I suppose you prefer to see Morne back .. ?
6 Oct 2012, 09:59 am
@Brads-185: That’s a pretty meek “in-case” submission.
6 Oct 2012, 10:02 am
@Doughnut-187:
No it is the smelling salts that keeps my mind alert to what is reality.
You should try it some time, just to get an idea of the difference between reality and fantasy.
6 Oct 2012, 10:03 am
@Doughnut-188: There is a better player with much more experience on the bench… I suppose you did not see him too.. He warmed up for 15 minutes last week… what’s his name again???
6 Oct 2012, 10:06 am
@youknowwho-191: You forgot to add ..”in my opinion …” there is no fact here just opinion .. yes he is good is his name Jantjies ?
6 Oct 2012, 10:07 am
@katman-189:
No submission from this corner my friend.
I fully expect the AB’s to win, but if the unexpected happens, it will not be the end of the world.
No damage done in the over all scheme of things.
6 Oct 2012, 10:09 am
@Brads-193: Ah, covering all possible bases. I know the kind.
6 Oct 2012, 10:09 am
@Brads-190: Reality being the AB could in fact lose …. ? that sort of reality vs fantasy scenario must be challenging for you let alone lesser Bok supporters ..
6 Oct 2012, 10:10 am
@katman-194: Not sure what his point is … but it would make it more interesting for the rest of us if he actually had one ..
6 Oct 2012, 10:11 am
@Doughnut-195:
Reality is there could be a draw, what is your point.
6 Oct 2012, 10:14 am
@Brads-197: yawn i forget .. anyway good luck lets hope the game lives up to the hype ..
6 Oct 2012, 10:20 am
Three weeks ago there were a few lonely bloggers who still held any respect for Meyer after a series of dismal matches by the Bokke.
The vast majority of folk were rabid in the hatred of his failed game plan.
Two matches later, with a 50% win rate to boot, Meyer’s not the idiot everyone was insisting he was, and SA are apparently on the cusp of greatness.
Is that reality or fantasy?
6 Oct 2012, 10:21 am
@Doughnut-192: My opinion is generally regarded as fact… How long have you been on this site?? I am never wrong
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