Preview: Boks vs All Blacks

Preview: Boks vs All Blacks

5 Oct 2012

JON CARDINELLI analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner of the Rugby Championship Test in Soweto.

In the one corner we have the resurgent Springboks, who produced their most balanced showing of the season when they pulverised the Wallabies last week. In the other is the world champions, who have just come off their most convincing performance of 2012, a 54-15 bashing of Argentina.

The Rugby Championship title is no longer up for grabs, but there is a sense that this final Test of the competition could still prove to be the climax, a game and occasion to remember.

The All Blacks have plenty to play for. They haven’t lost to South Africa this year, and will be determined to maintain that mental hold over their fiercest foes.

They’ve won 15 games in a row, and four more victories will see them surpassing Lithuania for the most consecutive Test wins. A loss to South Africa this Saturday would scupper those ambitions.

The Boks have much to gain, and their desperation to win will be patent. Coach Heyneke Meyer revealed this week that his most realistic short-term goal has been to finish his first season with an undefeated home record. Victory at Soccer City would see Meyer and the Boks realising that ambition.

They’ll be driving for that minor milestone, and will use that massive, passionate crowd at the Calabash for extra motivation. Above and beyond that, there will be a belief that they can beat the All Blacks, having so nearly achieved this rare feat in Dunedin three weeks ago.

It was a day where wayward goal-kicking and poor option-taking by the halfbacks let them down. The forwards dominated at the point of contact, at the breakdowns, and through a much improved rolling maul. If the Boks can replicate that forward performance, it should create sufficient opportunities to win the game in Soweto.

The tight five has been excellent over the course of the last two games, and the loose forwards have thrived off such a powerful platform. The introduction of Francois Louw and Duane Vermeulen to the starting side, as individuals and as part of a balanced loose trio combination, has been telling.

The Bok forwards will need to be on point in terms of clearing away the likes of Richie McCaw and Andrew Hore from the breakdown, as these All Blacks players excel at not only stealing possession but slowing opposition momentum. On the other hand, men like Louw will have a big role to play in stalling the Kiwis’ attack. The extent to which Louw is able to do so will determine the outcome of the game.

It’s not going to be a try-fest, and I’m not even going to apologise. The best matches, the most absorbing and tightly contested games, are those where both sides come to the party with outstanding defensive systems and kicking games. It takes something special to break the line, let alone score a try. And when that happens, it is all the more reason to celebrate.

The Boks may have produced a strong all-round showing against the Wallabies last week, but they have some way to go before they can boast the All Blacks’ balance between attack and defence.

Meyer has already said this week that the latter strength is more concerning than the former. How are the Boks going to fracture that World Cup-winning All Blacks’ defence?

It won’t be enough to win the forward battles, they will need to with the tussle for territory too. Ruan Pienaar assumed the tactical kicking duties last week, but he will need Johan Goosen to contribute more in a game of this nature. The accuracy of this pair will be crucial, as the All Blacks’ back three all have the potential to punish poor kicks.

Winning territory also won’t be enough, the Boks will need to put points on the board once they have the opposition on the ropes. Goosen has brought a spark to the Bok attack, but he will also be required to convert all shots on goal. It’s a lot of pressure for a 20-year-old to deal with in only his second Test start.

The All Blacks have subtly suggested that they will target Goosen when they are on the attack. What will make the young flyhalf’s task slightly easier is a superior showing by the Bok forwards. Dan Carter and his backline will present less of a gainline threat if they are operating with back-foot ball.

I believe Meyer is doing the right thing by backing Goosen, and I believe that the forwards have the potential to stand up to their All Blacks counterparts. The Calabash is a special place, and there could be another record crowd through the gates tomorrow. Don’t underestimate the galvanising impact that number of people can have on the home team.

But then again, it wasn’t enough before. In 2010, it seemed as if Soccer City had worked it’s magic until the All Blacks snatched a late try at the death.

It will be another close loss for the Boks this Saturday. Their goal-kicking hasn’t been nearly good enough, and that is a big handicap when you are playing the world champions. The All Blacks boast one of the best ever in this respect, namely Dan Carter.

To beat the world champions and stall their world record run would be an outstanding achievement, especially since the Boks aren’t operating at full strength.

However, it is because the Boks aren’t at full strength that a narrow loss should not be seen as a train smash. A close defeat to the All Blacks would not signify a lack of progress.

JC’S PREDICTION: All Blacks by 3

Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jaco Taute, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Johan Goosen, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermuelen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Coenie Oosthuizen, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Marcel Coetzee, 20 Elton Jantjies, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.

All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Luke Romano, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Tamati Ellison.


285 Comments

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  • 51.Horings: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:17 am

    This is the warmest week in Joburg this year. It is at altitude. All Blacks travelled East for the first time when travelling to SA and the Boks have confidence after last week. For these reasons the Boks should win.

    We do not need to worry about the kicks. Goosen will slot one from 65m in his 6/7 kicking performance.

  • 52.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:17 am

    answer the question

  • 53.Horings: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:18 am

    @Horings-51: Since Winter

  • 54.viewer: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:22 am

    Mr. Meyer it should have been : 12. JdV 13 Juan de Jongh
    I get a sneaky feeling the ABs have something up their sleeve for J Taute

  • 55.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:22 am

    @Horings-51:
    would love to see goosen slot 3 or 4 drop goals.
    beating them with kicks will be sweeter for me.

  • 56.grant100: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:24 am

    JDJ is kak

  • 57.NZINCHINA: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:24 am

    So much confidence for a team on a 1 win streak.

  • 58.grant100: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:25 am

    LOL @ NZinChina …. a NZ cannibal in China – you can’t top that … its like being a drug dealer in Hillbrow …. clever move …!

  • 59.Jeraldjay: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:26 am

    @NZINCHINA-57:
    Are you like this in real life?

  • 60.NZINCHINA: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:27 am

    what a realist?

  • 61.Horings: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:28 am

    @NZINCHINA-57: Neutral venue you will win, but Fleck in 2000 and Joubert in 2004 shows even if the Boks are not the no1 team they can beat the All Blacks well when all the highveld factors are taken into account. A possible 16-52 scoreline is also on the table given the inexperienced Bok team.

  • 62.NZINCHINA: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:30 am

    Horings anything is possible, you beating Aus just proved that.

  • 63.Dawn: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:33 am

    @NZINCHINA-62:

    You like one of those Maltese poodles who yaps all the time

  • 64.Dawn: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:35 am

    What haka they coming with this week.

    The Panga?

  • 65.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:36 am

    @Jeraldjay-59:
    i view it as a good works, social / mental health upliftment bit of personal sacrifice.
    i do realise that i may have bitten off a lot more than i can chew but i will endeavour to help him as best i can.

  • 66.NZINCHINA: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:37 am

    Keeping it real Dawn.

  • 67.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:39 am

    @Dawn-64:
    to be horribly honest, i really dont care.
    i’ve lost any respect for it a long time ago and use the time to get beers and snacks before kickoff. it works great as a sound que for the match kickoff.

  • 68.Atreides: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:40 am

    @i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-65: What was your take on the referee’s mistake on saturday?

  • 69.viewer: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:40 am

    @Dawn-64
    Nope! The Panga dance is property of striking miners

  • 70.Dawn: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:41 am

    @NZINCHINA-66:

    You know what?

    We get it already.

  • 71.NZINCHINA: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:41 am

    every young South African player dreams of facing it

  • 72.W.P: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:42 am

    NZINCHINA : The Boks showed enough in Dunedin – even with Morne Steyn – that they’re capable

  • 73.Slartibartfast: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:43 am

    @Dawn-70:

    Agtermiddag waar hy is, seker al half gesuip. Los maar.

  • 74.Dawn: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:43 am

    @i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-67:

    Set the PVR to Autotune for the start of the game.

    No pangas, no anthems.

  • 75.NZINCHINA: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:45 am

    Wp most teams are capable, very few actually do it, coulda shoulda woulda’s count for nothing.

  • 76.Dawn: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:45 am

    We gonna send our striking hoardes with their weapons to face this panga.

    See what the ABs do then.

  • 77.NZINCHINA: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:47 am

    73 ni shuo shen me?

  • 78.Brads: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:47 am

    My oh my, some wild and hopeful predictions by both camps.
    On one point I agree with Cardinelli, the game will be close. A converted try will separate the teams.
    But who will win is another issue.
    Either team can win on merit, and that is as it should be.

    That said, I obviously favour the AB’s and believe they have the experience and talent to see off the Bokke.

    SA are putting way too much pressure on your Goosen to deliver.

  • 79.Slartibartfast: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:48 am

    South Africa 2.75 New Zealand 1.46

    Also only get 1.34 for Boks to loose by more than 12…

  • 80.Dawn: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:49 am

    Except Cory of course

    He will be protected

  • 81.goodstuff: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:49 am

    @NZINCHINA-42: Not the the junior rugby world cup :) .

  • 82.NZINCHINA: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:52 am

    Goodstuff the boys cup? he he ok you got me

  • 83.viewer: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:52 am

    @bakkies-67
    Wow. Your aversion & antipathy towards all things New Zealand is disturbing

  • 84.Slartibartfast: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:53 am

    @Brads-78:

    Yes Brads, it will be close and I don’t understand the odds given by the bookies. Take into consideration the highveld and travel and surely the odds must be closer.

  • 85.Jeraldjay: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:54 am

    @Brads-78:
    The Goose has the mental toughness of our golfers.

    Ernie Els, Charl Schwartzel and his namesake Retief.

  • 86.KWAGGA ROBERTSE: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:54 am

    @i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-67: I still quite enjoy the Haka but somehow the white dudes fail horrifically in pulling off them scary faces. They tend to resemble those fakkers down in Cape Town trying the same thing without the front toofs.

  • 87.Brads: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:54 am

    @W.P-72:
    Yes, they did, but they only managed to force penalty’s in the marginal kicking range of Morne.

    This notion that every long range penalty attempt should have been a certain conversion is okay, so long as you accept that every missed judged off load by the AB’s represented an even more amazing number of scoring opportunities.

  • 88.KWAGGA ROBERTSE: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:54 am

    @Slartibartfast-84: Dobbel jy weer jou geld weg gomgat?

  • 89.goodstuff: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:55 am

    @NZINCHINA-82: You do have all the ‘senior’ trophies, the AB’s doing well, but built on the back of the 2011 crew. No Brad Thorn makes the AB pack a bit skiddish.

    Guess the same for us without Bakkies, I still believe Pocock would not have had a chance agaisnt the boks with Bakkies there.

  • 90.Slartibartfast: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:55 am

    @KWAGGA ROBERTSE-86:

    Howzit pajama D! Nope, Haka turned into a farce the moment the irb declared the opposition is not allowed to do anything.

  • 91.Dawn: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:57 am

    @KWAGGA ROBERTSE-86:

    Stop talking your stereotypical kuk please

  • 92.KWAGGA ROBERTSE: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:58 am

    @Slartibartfast-90: Ja that was kak. IRB protecting the golden boys again…….etters

  • 93.Slartibartfast: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:59 am

    @KWAGGA ROBERTSE-88:

    Check maar net, kan lekker geld maak die naweek ek dink.

  • 94.Slartibartfast: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:59 am

    @KWAGGA ROBERTSE-92:

    Right, ek pak op, genoeg gewerk vir een dag. Chat weer later.

  • 95.KWAGGA ROBERTSE: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 08:59 am

    @Dawn-91: Sin vir humor noem mens dit Dawn. Joune weer vir n bol gegaan vanmore?

  • 96.KWAGGA ROBERTSE: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 09:00 am

    @Slartibartfast-94: Cheers ou maat.

  • 97.goodstuff: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 09:00 am

    @Slartibartfast-90: Not a farce, but yes the IRB have become to sesnsitive, how awsome have the very important matches been when the AB’s are marched upon by their foes? Think of 2007 France vs. NZ and 1995 AB’s vs. South Africa or even the Welsh vs. AB’s when both teams refused to back down and Kaplin had to force them to start the match.

    But now the pufter old men at IRB make rugby more and more like soccer.

  • 98.Jeraldjay: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 09:00 am

    @NZINCHINA-82:
    China I missed the Haka against the Argies.

    Was it the special one or the kamate for unworthy opponents.

  • 99.Brads: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 09:01 am

    @Slartibartfast-84:
    Working out the odds must be a nightmare, but the motherfecker bookies all seem to survive no matter what the result.

  • 100.Hurricane: Reply to this comment
    5 Oct 2012, 09:02 am

    @KWAGGA ROBERTSE-92:
    What is there to protect??
    What can you guys do to hurt us while we are doing the Haka?
    IRB rules and not ours.

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Keo.co.za has always promoted uncensored views, but has never tolerated racist or crass outbursts. Come on guys and girls. If you can't moderate yourselves or each other then I am going to be forced to regulate the posts and enforce a registration process for comments. The choice is yours.

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