Preview: Boks vs All Blacks
5 Oct 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner of the Rugby Championship Test in Soweto.
In the one corner we have the resurgent Springboks, who produced their most balanced showing of the season when they pulverised the Wallabies last week. In the other is the world champions, who have just come off their most convincing performance of 2012, a 54-15 bashing of Argentina.
The Rugby Championship title is no longer up for grabs, but there is a sense that this final Test of the competition could still prove to be the climax, a game and occasion to remember.
The All Blacks have plenty to play for. They haven’t lost to South Africa this year, and will be determined to maintain that mental hold over their fiercest foes.
They’ve won 15 games in a row, and four more victories will see them surpassing Lithuania for the most consecutive Test wins. A loss to South Africa this Saturday would scupper those ambitions.
The Boks have much to gain, and their desperation to win will be patent. Coach Heyneke Meyer revealed this week that his most realistic short-term goal has been to finish his first season with an undefeated home record. Victory at Soccer City would see Meyer and the Boks realising that ambition.
They’ll be driving for that minor milestone, and will use that massive, passionate crowd at the Calabash for extra motivation. Above and beyond that, there will be a belief that they can beat the All Blacks, having so nearly achieved this rare feat in Dunedin three weeks ago.
It was a day where wayward goal-kicking and poor option-taking by the halfbacks let them down. The forwards dominated at the point of contact, at the breakdowns, and through a much improved rolling maul. If the Boks can replicate that forward performance, it should create sufficient opportunities to win the game in Soweto.
The tight five has been excellent over the course of the last two games, and the loose forwards have thrived off such a powerful platform. The introduction of Francois Louw and Duane Vermeulen to the starting side, as individuals and as part of a balanced loose trio combination, has been telling.
The Bok forwards will need to be on point in terms of clearing away the likes of Richie McCaw and Andrew Hore from the breakdown, as these All Blacks players excel at not only stealing possession but slowing opposition momentum. On the other hand, men like Louw will have a big role to play in stalling the Kiwis’ attack. The extent to which Louw is able to do so will determine the outcome of the game.
It’s not going to be a try-fest, and I’m not even going to apologise. The best matches, the most absorbing and tightly contested games, are those where both sides come to the party with outstanding defensive systems and kicking games. It takes something special to break the line, let alone score a try. And when that happens, it is all the more reason to celebrate.
The Boks may have produced a strong all-round showing against the Wallabies last week, but they have some way to go before they can boast the All Blacks’ balance between attack and defence.
Meyer has already said this week that the latter strength is more concerning than the former. How are the Boks going to fracture that World Cup-winning All Blacks’ defence?
It won’t be enough to win the forward battles, they will need to with the tussle for territory too. Ruan Pienaar assumed the tactical kicking duties last week, but he will need Johan Goosen to contribute more in a game of this nature. The accuracy of this pair will be crucial, as the All Blacks’ back three all have the potential to punish poor kicks.
Winning territory also won’t be enough, the Boks will need to put points on the board once they have the opposition on the ropes. Goosen has brought a spark to the Bok attack, but he will also be required to convert all shots on goal. It’s a lot of pressure for a 20-year-old to deal with in only his second Test start.
The All Blacks have subtly suggested that they will target Goosen when they are on the attack. What will make the young flyhalf’s task slightly easier is a superior showing by the Bok forwards. Dan Carter and his backline will present less of a gainline threat if they are operating with back-foot ball.
I believe Meyer is doing the right thing by backing Goosen, and I believe that the forwards have the potential to stand up to their All Blacks counterparts. The Calabash is a special place, and there could be another record crowd through the gates tomorrow. Don’t underestimate the galvanising impact that number of people can have on the home team.
But then again, it wasn’t enough before. In 2010, it seemed as if Soccer City had worked it’s magic until the All Blacks snatched a late try at the death.
It will be another close loss for the Boks this Saturday. Their goal-kicking hasn’t been nearly good enough, and that is a big handicap when you are playing the world champions. The All Blacks boast one of the best ever in this respect, namely Dan Carter.
To beat the world champions and stall their world record run would be an outstanding achievement, especially since the Boks aren’t operating at full strength.
However, it is because the Boks aren’t at full strength that a narrow loss should not be seen as a train smash. A close defeat to the All Blacks would not signify a lack of progress.
JC’S PREDICTION: All Blacks by 3
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jaco Taute, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Johan Goosen, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermuelen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Coenie Oosthuizen, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Marcel Coetzee, 20 Elton Jantjies, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Luke Romano, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Tamati Ellison.
285 Comments
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5 Oct 2012, 09:04 am
@Atreides-68:
lol
And Bakkies logs off,way to scare him off.
5 Oct 2012, 09:05 am
@Hurricane-100: That was meant with tongue in cheeck Hurri. I must admit I used to enjoy watching the odd stand off after the Haka. Just added that extra bit of spice.
5 Oct 2012, 09:09 am
@Jeraldjay-85:
Says you with nil evidence to back it up!.
Yes, he may well have all of that fortitude, but there is no history to demonstrate he can be relied upon.
Hopeful expectation is fine for a pre-match wank, but you are endorsing what I stated previously.
“SA are putting way too much pressure on your Goosen to deliver.”
5 Oct 2012, 09:11 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-21:
lol
Did you realise they stopped the game for over that time. To clean flower bombs and i think one of the ABs was hit, that took alot of time.
Should have been 15 minutes extra time. So dont use that as an excuse.
5 Oct 2012, 09:14 am
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE-102:
I dont get it.
I am Maori and really any challenge we put down, we expect at aleast recogntion that the challenge has been accepted or challenged back. The other team not allowed to respond or
actually do anything is a joke. IRB clueless on that.
5 Oct 2012, 09:14 am
The haka should be reciprocated as is the way of the Maori
5 Oct 2012, 09:15 am
@Hurricane-100: I enjoy the haka .. it also fuels the fire for us ..
The ABs do fear the Boks, they are the only team that scare them and if we do complete our game plan then AB are going down.
More likely by 2013 I think we will have a blueprint of players and plan that will worked on leading up to 2015…
Theres confidence for you !
5 Oct 2012, 09:15 am
Dudes please stop arguing about what happened in 1976 and 1981. Move on. This is 2012. Gonna be a good game on Saturday between the world’s 2 best teams. ABs favourites but this will be no easy game.
5 Oct 2012, 09:16 am
@Brads-103:
I agree, the pressure on the kids shoulders is immense.
But if he comes through tomorrow he will be able to deliver on any stage and it will lay the foundation for future success.
5 Oct 2012, 09:19 am
Dawn choose already! Cory Jane or did you dump Eben?
5 Oct 2012, 09:21 am
@Doughnut-107:
Mate,if the ABs feared the Boks, we would not be winning many against you.
I think the word is respect. I mean you have to shohw respect to all teams but there are the teams where you just cannot put your guard down, repect for the whole game….Boks are oneof those teams.
I think the ABs do this well against the Boks.
Hats of to your boys for bringing the best out of the ABs….cos you do. Rarely do we play a bad game against the BOks. Normally if we lose we are just out played, simple.
5 Oct 2012, 09:22 am
@Atreides-68:
the substitution issue?
notice how the irb falls over themselves to say they made a fault when its friends of kiwis involved.
@Dawn-74:
thanks for the advice.
its not my cup of tea.
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE-86:
i dont like it and like the welsh did to them, would prefer they did it in the toilets before they came out.
5 Oct 2012, 09:24 am
@Jeraldjay-109:
Fair enough.
Yes, if he delivers he will stamp his mark on where he stands in SA rugby, but expecting him to do so before the match is another animal altogether.
What happens if he falls short, do you look to the next wunderkind as the answer to all SA problems.
5 Oct 2012, 09:25 am
@Te Rangatira-106:
We gonna send our strikers
5 Oct 2012, 09:25 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-112:
haha
You wanted a fair game but it did not happen, yet you still blamed us?
LOOOOSSSSEEEERRRR
The Welsh fans complained bitterly about that, actually booed the ABs.
So what happened next time? We did the Haka on the field. All were happy.
Dont really expect that from a bitter fool like you Bakkies.
5 Oct 2012, 09:25 am
@viewer-110:
Cory has a fend
5 Oct 2012, 09:26 am
JC has put the kiss of death on the AB’s
5 Oct 2012, 09:26 am
@Hurricane-104:
not true.
get a copy of the full test and time it.
it was conclusivley proved a number of times by audio visual and television experts.
including all game time stoppages for any and all reasons, the flour bags and everything else, there was still and extra 11 or 12 minutes of time added after all this.
but what do you know
5 Oct 2012, 09:27 am
meeting out for now.
5 Oct 2012, 09:28 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-118:
I watched live, saw the ABs win….game over. Let it go little fella.
5 Oct 2012, 09:29 am
@Delki-108:
Agreed FFS
Flour is so 1980′s
5 Oct 2012, 09:31 am
@Brads-113:
Tomorrow game will provide clarity on Goosen’s defensive abilities more than his attacking skills.
I think all true rugby lovers hope’s he comes through with flying colours.
5 Oct 2012, 09:32 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-112:
Well that is one take on it.
The other is the Ref’s are human and make mistakes.
Deal with it.
5 Oct 2012, 09:37 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-118:
Take it up with Clive Norling and the Welsh Rugby Union is you have a beef over the way he blew the match.
The Welsh hate up more than you guys.
5 Oct 2012, 09:37 am
Boks should win with their 90 000 African supporters……
Wonder how the game will really play out – RC over and nothing else that counts… except the fact it is a test match . to win or lose.
Nice stuff.
(But no ? Surely I don’t know why they will have to have a shield or plate or cup for this game too)
5 Oct 2012, 09:39 am
@Jeraldjay-122:
Well to be fair, I hope he plays well, but not this coming through with flying colours business.
5 Oct 2012, 09:40 am
It can easily explode into a running game try fest on both sides….
5 Oct 2012, 09:41 am
Hi everyone!
It amazes me how little the general rugby public actually knows about our current springbok players and what they are capable of or more importantly who is behind them.
There is always this feeling of fear when so called know it all rugby writers and the general rugby public talks about facing the current All Black side. This, coupled with the thought of the All Blacks doing the haka sends shivers down their spine even before the game has started. Respecting the opposition is one thing which should apply to all opposition but when it comes to the All Blacks it seems that many in their minds have lost the game for the Boks before it even started. Sure, nobody would argue that the All Black achievements warrants credit and like the old saying give credit where credit is due but this negative mindset only says one thing…how little you actually know about the capabilities of our current players even though so many of the top players (in your mind) are currently injured. These same people will be the ones that will use the currently injured players as a reason or excuse if and when the Springboks lost or performed badly. The All Blacks have already won the Championship but the stakes are higher than they have ever been. In All Black minds, if a so called second string Springbok side beats them on Saturday, it will destroy their season, their win record will come crashing down, and of course the biggy it would question their status as being the top side in world rugby at the moment especially as they have their best possible team bar Sonny Bill Williams playing. In their minds they cannot have that happen. I mean if they can’t beat a second string Bok side what will they do when all the “top” Bok players come back, right?
Wrong! Allow me to open your eyes and wake you up a little. The Boks have a new head coach and management. With new coaches and management comes new styles, new rules, new everything. How it will impact a team and the time it takes before positive results show depends on how good the new management and coaching staff are. New coaches and management will unsettle a team and affect their results, any team. Allow yourself to imagine removing all the current All Black coaching staff and team management and and swapping them with the current Bok management and coaching team or the other way around. The All Black or Bok results will instantly be affected in a bad way. Sure even a fool will agree to that. Now, let’s forget about previous Springbok coach De Villiers and his coaching staff as the whole world even non rugby followers knows that he was a clown and didn’t have a clue and didn’t belong there. The new Springbok coach and management team however are not clowns. They are the real deal. They are what the All Black guru’s would fear and with good reason. They know what they doing and they know where they going. Heyneke is no clown. He is a rugby brain with immense talent that the Bok supporters have longed for since Nick Mallet was replaced as coach. Glimpses of him and his coaching staff brilliance was shown in the last test in Dunedin and the last test against the Wallabies. Now let’s forget about injuries here as the Wallabies have as many as the Boks. The Bok performance in Dunedin and last test against the Wallabies confirms what very few are starting to realize. This Bok side without all the so called top players not only has the potential (but not consistently showing it yet) to beat anyone, but in fact this current Bok side as a result of a great head coach and coaching staff aren’t joking when they claim that they will be the best team in world rugby. They are the real deal even though many don’t see it yet! I do. I didn’t think it will happen so quickly after new coach and management but it is happening whether you like it or not.
So here is a calculated prediction for you for Saturday. This current second string Bok side (even though in my mind under Heyneke not second string as he has a unrivalled skill in bringing out the best in everyone) will not only beat the All Blacks on Saturday, they will hammer them and will win by at least 15 points. Write this down, copy this post and mark my words carefully. Oh I know I will be one of very few willing to make a statement like this, but there are very few people who actually know what the new coach is capable to get from his players.
A new era is about to begin, the sign are there, jump on is going to be a hell of a ride. The Springboks will dominate world rugby as long as Heyneke is there, forget about targeting Goosen or Habana or Taute as the media suggested earlier this week, Heyneke will be the All Blacks worse fear for years to come.
5 Oct 2012, 09:43 am
@MADaboutrugby-128:
Who are all the top Bok players to come back?
And do you believe this is a Bok B team?
5 Oct 2012, 09:44 am
@MADaboutrugby-128:
Kuk man
5 Oct 2012, 09:45 am
@shooter-127:
Got guns?
5 Oct 2012, 09:46 am
@shooter-125:
Are you talking about the Freedom Cup?
Is that up for grabs?
5 Oct 2012, 09:48 am
Funny post Mad. Really funny.
5 Oct 2012, 09:50 am
@Dawn-131: first fast loose draw
@Brads-132: i dont know.. is there
5 Oct 2012, 09:50 am
@MADaboutrugby-128:
You would be perfectly correct if the volume of someone imagination were put into words and dumped on a blog.
5 Oct 2012, 09:51 am
@120 MADaboutrugby
Go take your meds, boet.
5 Oct 2012, 09:51 am
@MADaboutrugby-128:
Oh right you did, so NZ are rooted!
5 Oct 2012, 09:53 am
@viewer-110: Eben is what is called a “Sidesmash”, Cory is the main dish…
ne Dawn?
5 Oct 2012, 09:55 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-118:
Found a report on the game. 11 minutes of injury time as you suggested was incorrect….of course.
Referee Clive Norling awarded the penalty nine minutes into injury time when the scores were locked at 22-all.
“He (Norling) was the sole judge of time – thank goodness he was.”
The park was being strafed by a light plane, the match was marred by numerous stoppages including All Black prop Gary Knight being felled by a flour bomb – accounting for the extended injury time
As i said, the injury time was for all the stoppages, but lets not worry about you being wrong, Let look forward to the game this weekend
5 Oct 2012, 09:56 am
@Transformation-138:
I dig that fend, man
5 Oct 2012, 09:56 am
@shooter-134:
Sorry, you suggested there was a cup to play for.
The big gong is in the bank, so I assumed you were talking about the Freedom Cup.
The Freedom Cup clearly doesn’t have the Mana that goes with the Bledisloe and it never will have if no one cares about it.
5 Oct 2012, 09:56 am
@Hurricane-139:
bakkies is in a meeting
5 Oct 2012, 09:58 am
@Dawn-142:
Oh the Doctors.
Yeah, i think its his normal 1 hour talk about those voicesin the head.
5 Oct 2012, 09:59 am
One small step for Andries Bekker,
one giant leap for Pat Lambie
5 Oct 2012, 09:59 am
@Brads-123:
On a scale of 1 – 10 how much of a rabid AB are you?
5 Oct 2012, 10:00 am
Boks by 15.
5 Oct 2012, 10:02 am
@Liewe Luiperd-146:
5 Oct 2012, 10:02 am
@Hurricane-143:
That fend that fend that fend
All I want to see is that fend
5 Oct 2012, 10:05 am
@MADaboutrugby-128: Ok Heyneke thanks for the post … That is a very big call, I for one agree with your enthusiasm and belief we are headed in the right direction .. However 15points is a very long score considering AB at home with Boks still carrying MS got 11points over the Boks .. Now AB have DC back and Boks are at home so i am going for the win but by a penalty kick … The biggest challenge for Boks will be their kicks at post ..
5 Oct 2012, 10:05 am
Well done JC. By predicting the AB’s to win you have just ensured that the Boks will win this game hands down. Are you perhaps Heineken’s secret weapon? I am definitely putting a few sheckles on the Boks after reading this article. Thanks mate
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