Preview: Boks vs All Blacks
5 Oct 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner of the Rugby Championship Test in Soweto.
In the one corner we have the resurgent Springboks, who produced their most balanced showing of the season when they pulverised the Wallabies last week. In the other is the world champions, who have just come off their most convincing performance of 2012, a 54-15 bashing of Argentina.
The Rugby Championship title is no longer up for grabs, but there is a sense that this final Test of the competition could still prove to be the climax, a game and occasion to remember.
The All Blacks have plenty to play for. They haven’t lost to South Africa this year, and will be determined to maintain that mental hold over their fiercest foes.
They’ve won 15 games in a row, and four more victories will see them surpassing Lithuania for the most consecutive Test wins. A loss to South Africa this Saturday would scupper those ambitions.
The Boks have much to gain, and their desperation to win will be patent. Coach Heyneke Meyer revealed this week that his most realistic short-term goal has been to finish his first season with an undefeated home record. Victory at Soccer City would see Meyer and the Boks realising that ambition.
They’ll be driving for that minor milestone, and will use that massive, passionate crowd at the Calabash for extra motivation. Above and beyond that, there will be a belief that they can beat the All Blacks, having so nearly achieved this rare feat in Dunedin three weeks ago.
It was a day where wayward goal-kicking and poor option-taking by the halfbacks let them down. The forwards dominated at the point of contact, at the breakdowns, and through a much improved rolling maul. If the Boks can replicate that forward performance, it should create sufficient opportunities to win the game in Soweto.
The tight five has been excellent over the course of the last two games, and the loose forwards have thrived off such a powerful platform. The introduction of Francois Louw and Duane Vermeulen to the starting side, as individuals and as part of a balanced loose trio combination, has been telling.
The Bok forwards will need to be on point in terms of clearing away the likes of Richie McCaw and Andrew Hore from the breakdown, as these All Blacks players excel at not only stealing possession but slowing opposition momentum. On the other hand, men like Louw will have a big role to play in stalling the Kiwis’ attack. The extent to which Louw is able to do so will determine the outcome of the game.
It’s not going to be a try-fest, and I’m not even going to apologise. The best matches, the most absorbing and tightly contested games, are those where both sides come to the party with outstanding defensive systems and kicking games. It takes something special to break the line, let alone score a try. And when that happens, it is all the more reason to celebrate.
The Boks may have produced a strong all-round showing against the Wallabies last week, but they have some way to go before they can boast the All Blacks’ balance between attack and defence.
Meyer has already said this week that the latter strength is more concerning than the former. How are the Boks going to fracture that World Cup-winning All Blacks’ defence?
It won’t be enough to win the forward battles, they will need to with the tussle for territory too. Ruan Pienaar assumed the tactical kicking duties last week, but he will need Johan Goosen to contribute more in a game of this nature. The accuracy of this pair will be crucial, as the All Blacks’ back three all have the potential to punish poor kicks.
Winning territory also won’t be enough, the Boks will need to put points on the board once they have the opposition on the ropes. Goosen has brought a spark to the Bok attack, but he will also be required to convert all shots on goal. It’s a lot of pressure for a 20-year-old to deal with in only his second Test start.
The All Blacks have subtly suggested that they will target Goosen when they are on the attack. What will make the young flyhalf’s task slightly easier is a superior showing by the Bok forwards. Dan Carter and his backline will present less of a gainline threat if they are operating with back-foot ball.
I believe Meyer is doing the right thing by backing Goosen, and I believe that the forwards have the potential to stand up to their All Blacks counterparts. The Calabash is a special place, and there could be another record crowd through the gates tomorrow. Don’t underestimate the galvanising impact that number of people can have on the home team.
But then again, it wasn’t enough before. In 2010, it seemed as if Soccer City had worked it’s magic until the All Blacks snatched a late try at the death.
It will be another close loss for the Boks this Saturday. Their goal-kicking hasn’t been nearly good enough, and that is a big handicap when you are playing the world champions. The All Blacks boast one of the best ever in this respect, namely Dan Carter.
To beat the world champions and stall their world record run would be an outstanding achievement, especially since the Boks aren’t operating at full strength.
However, it is because the Boks aren’t at full strength that a narrow loss should not be seen as a train smash. A close defeat to the All Blacks would not signify a lack of progress.
JC’S PREDICTION: All Blacks by 3
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jaco Taute, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Johan Goosen, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermuelen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Coenie Oosthuizen, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Marcel Coetzee, 20 Elton Jantjies, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Luke Romano, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Tamati Ellison.
285 Comments
Pages: « 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 » Show All
5 Oct 2012, 10:06 am
@Dawn-148: We get the picture …. already !
5 Oct 2012, 10:06 am
@Liewe Luiperd-146: Same here.
Boks by 15.
5 Oct 2012, 10:07 am
@Dawn-145:
What is rabid mean?
1 . Hate the team and want them to always lose and every player burn in hell..
10. Sacrificing my first born if the team required it.
5 Oct 2012, 10:09 am
@Dawn-148:
I dont know if my meaning of fend is the same as yours.
5 Oct 2012, 10:09 am
@Brads-153:
You know Bakkies posts……. there is rabid.
5 Oct 2012, 10:13 am
@Brads-141: You guys care about the bedisloe cup?
5 Oct 2012, 10:13 am
@Golden Boy-150:
Be sure to post a link to where ever it is you can prove you have emptied your wallet with such confidence.
A facsimile of of your betting stub will be all we need.
5 Oct 2012, 10:14 am
@Hurricane-154:
5 Oct 2012, 10:17 am
@goodstuff-156:
Yep we sure do.
Why wouldnt it?
Its a cup that we have fought over for along time.
5 Oct 2012, 10:17 am
@Brads-153:
What’s with the definitions
Just on a scale of 1 – 10!
5 Oct 2012, 10:18 am
How come Pops is unavailable for a week.
No internet in NZ
5 Oct 2012, 10:18 am
@goodstuff-156:
Less and less I have to be honest, we have held it for 8 odd years..
It became bloody important when we didn’t own it. Helped without question by the Aussie crowing when they took it off us.
5 Oct 2012, 10:21 am
@Doughnut-149: it’s not only Heyneke/MADaboutrugby that thinks the Boks are dangerous…
Wayne Smith on:
The All Blacks’ rivals
“I was pretty impressed with the Springboks in the second Test against England, in the first half. They had real attention to detail in their attacking ball … they’ve still got a bit of work to do in the way that they use that ball, but they are certainly very good at the speed of ball, their ball retention. So if they can reach those levels and maybe vary their game a bit more, they’ll be dangerous.”
5 Oct 2012, 10:23 am
@Dawn-161: his waka don’t have wi-fi, only a cannon.
5 Oct 2012, 10:25 am
@Dawn-160:
I was deeply depressed in 1995, 2003 and 2007
Is that an answer that will satisfy you?
5 Oct 2012, 10:30 am
@128 – a wide ranging faux theoretical equivalent of brain diarrhoea splattered in a post containing semi truths & falseheaded points of view mixed with factoids which while plausible, could only sway the supine, sedentary & infantile amongst the sheeple who soak up & find to be irresistable what indisputably appears in the intermission amongst the numerous words as fawning over the new gaffer who is impulsively worshipped as a superior being to the previous verbose & hirsute incumbent & his overly rotund captain leading the meek to anticipate a false dawn whereafter perusing those voluminous paragraphs they would in any event not be endowed with the sense & clarity expected from an expansive treatise which nonetheless is rather anorexic in its content
5 Oct 2012, 10:35 am
@Transformation-163:
Wayne Smith is a damn good coach, but he would bore you to tears with his “analism”.
That’s a new word I just created to describe Wayne Smith’s intensity
5 Oct 2012, 10:37 am
@Brads-165:
So that’s a 10
5 Oct 2012, 10:38 am
@viewer-166:
What
5 Oct 2012, 10:38 am
@Brads-167:
Don’t go there. Transie worships the ground Smith walks on.
5 Oct 2012, 10:41 am
@Dawn-161: Pops is in Sydney.
A massive Maori-doorman keoing from his Blackberry whilst on shift.
5 Oct 2012, 10:43 am
@willievz-171:
Pops caught a flight back to NZ yesterday
5 Oct 2012, 10:44 am
@Brads-141: I’d probably care about it if the Boks won it a few times in a row and started bragging about it like the Aussies did. I’ve seen interviews with ABs in the 80s and they were pretty annoyed at the Aussies going on about it when they ABs barely knew what the Bledisloe was considering they hadn’t lost it in 30 years.
Still not sure how the Freedom Cup works – wikipedia tells me we defended it 1-1 last year. Not sure if it’s on points difference or if like the Bledislow the holder retains it after 1 win
5 Oct 2012, 10:45 am
@willievz-171:
hehehe
Pops dont use blackberry,thats so 2004. I reckon pops is a Samsung or iphone fella. He has class.
5 Oct 2012, 10:47 am
@Dawn-172: I see. He is probably jetlagged so catching up on some sleep. Or had some shaky lamb curry on the plane. Kiwis in general struggle with jetlag and food poisoning.
@Hurricane-174: True, I reckon his fingers are too big for the Blackberry keys!
5 Oct 2012, 10:51 am
@willievz-175:
hmmm did he catch South African airways?
Boy imagine that flight. Pilot complaining all the way to NZ. Flight Crew complaining about air NZ cos… they dont know why but they will think of something.
And a nice lady serving odd food called senior suzie.
5 Oct 2012, 10:51 am
As a Springbok supporter I obviously want them to win. There are a number of significant factors on their side which don’t need repeating……………..but, the ABs know how to win (15 in a row)by whatever means necessary. New Bok team is still learning how to win and a far from the finished article. Very little can be taken out of the Ozzie game as Oz were painfully weak and weakened even further by injuries during the match. My big worry is the way we lost shape in the last 10 minutes against them – if we do that against NZ we will get smashed…..ABs play for 91 minutes !!!
I hope it will be a fantastic game, in the long tradition of Test Match battles between these two great rivals.
Sitting on the fence is most uncomfotable and for that reason I will pin my colours to the mast….hate to say it but I think the ABs will win. Boks right up there for 55-60 minutes and then ABs will score two tries and put us away by >15.
5 Oct 2012, 10:53 am
@willievz-175:
He said he would be unavailable for a week until he got back to Aus
5 Oct 2012, 11:00 am
@gonzo-173: I’ll answer my own question. Looks like we won the cup in Dunedin. Wikipedia surprisingly slow to be updated
5 Oct 2012, 11:02 am
@Brads-167: didn’t come across that way to me.
5 Oct 2012, 11:08 am
@Jeraldjay-170: kwaaaaaaaaaaa nah, i just appreciate genius
5 Oct 2012, 11:12 am
@viewer-166: Yes, but what of the finite continuam ?
5 Oct 2012, 11:14 am
I think that it will be the Boks by 10-15 as well. Let me explain why I think so. The AB’s have struggled to gel up until now and one may argue they got it right on Sat against the Argies and this in itself will be a confidence booster. What strikes me though is that the AB’s did this against a team that in 4 weeks prior to the 1 week rest had travelled from Argentina to SA , back to Argentina then onto Oz and NZ and back to Argentina before playing the AB’s. I believe that this had an impact on the Argies performance last weekend (I may be wrong but I do think this to be case).
The Springboks on the other hand have settled into a nice combination and carry with them the realization that had they converted their points in NZ, they would have won without the lock pairing that is playing tomorrow. I believe that Eben and Becker are better at putting doubt into the AB’s at lineout time which means the Boks can afford to play the territory game on Sat. Add to that the fact that we have a genuine flyhalf general capable of sparking a backline it means different options in the AB’s half for us.
The AB’s will also be at a disadvantage travel wise when compared to the Bokke. All of the above leads me to predict that the Bok can win by at least 10-15 points on Saturday.
5 Oct 2012, 11:14 am
@Transformation-180:
Mail me that pic of Siya and Eben pls?
5 Oct 2012, 11:16 am
@gonzo-173:
Quite right Gonzo.
The Bledisloe Cup wasn’t even a consideration in matches between Aus and NZ.
Then out of the blue Aus noticed they had the cup in the cupboard and trumpeted the **** out of being the holder.
Red rag to a bull stuff like that to the average Kiwi, let alone the AB’s.
Now we can’t stand the concept of those ******** holding the cup
5 Oct 2012, 11:18 am
NZ Media reports this week had it that Pienaar is set to take the kicks at goal.
Boks by 25.
5 Oct 2012, 11:19 am
@bananaboy-183:
Don’t be so conservative, get ambitious and call as you really see it.
NZ are ****, and the only reason the AB’s staggered to 16 wins on the trot is luck.
5 Oct 2012, 11:20 am
@gonzo-179:
So why don’t you update it?
5 Oct 2012, 11:20 am
@wpstormerbok-186:
What are the odds if other players take the kicks?
5 Oct 2012, 11:22 am
@Tiptackle-182:
by at least 10 to 15 points so a 20 point hiding is on the cards, oh dear one win against a depleted Aus C team and you are going to beat the world champs by at least 10 – 15 points
5 Oct 2012, 11:22 am
@willievz-175:
It’s probably QUANTAS and is still circling trying to make an emergency landing with only one engine.
5 Oct 2012, 11:23 am
That was meant for 183 Banana
5 Oct 2012, 11:29 am
@NZINCHINA-190: Dude, what are you talking about ??? looks like the finite continuam has gotten the better of you……
5 Oct 2012, 11:30 am
@NZINCHINA-192: Sorry ! Just saw you meant a BANANA !!
5 Oct 2012, 11:33 am
@Dawn-184: ok
5 Oct 2012, 11:35 am
This is going to be close. One moment of brilliance will decide this match.
5 Oct 2012, 11:36 am
@Dawn-161:
Jury Duty.
5 Oct 2012, 11:38 am
@rossoneri-196: Agree with you, i dont see a wide margin by either team
5 Oct 2012, 11:42 am
By the way, who is the ref handling this matter?
5 Oct 2012, 11:43 am
@rossoneri-199: Date: Saturday, 6 October 2012
Kick-off: 17.00 (15.00 GMT)
Venue: Soccer City, Soweto
Expected weather conditions: Mostly cloudy with a high of 30°C, dropping to 15°C
Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Romain Poite (France), Greg Garner (England)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa
Pages: « 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 » Show All
Have your say
You must be logged in to post a comment.