Preview: Boks vs All Blacks
5 Oct 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner of the Rugby Championship Test in Soweto.
In the one corner we have the resurgent Springboks, who produced their most balanced showing of the season when they pulverised the Wallabies last week. In the other is the world champions, who have just come off their most convincing performance of 2012, a 54-15 bashing of Argentina.
The Rugby Championship title is no longer up for grabs, but there is a sense that this final Test of the competition could still prove to be the climax, a game and occasion to remember.
The All Blacks have plenty to play for. They haven’t lost to South Africa this year, and will be determined to maintain that mental hold over their fiercest foes.
They’ve won 15 games in a row, and four more victories will see them surpassing Lithuania for the most consecutive Test wins. A loss to South Africa this Saturday would scupper those ambitions.
The Boks have much to gain, and their desperation to win will be patent. Coach Heyneke Meyer revealed this week that his most realistic short-term goal has been to finish his first season with an undefeated home record. Victory at Soccer City would see Meyer and the Boks realising that ambition.
They’ll be driving for that minor milestone, and will use that massive, passionate crowd at the Calabash for extra motivation. Above and beyond that, there will be a belief that they can beat the All Blacks, having so nearly achieved this rare feat in Dunedin three weeks ago.
It was a day where wayward goal-kicking and poor option-taking by the halfbacks let them down. The forwards dominated at the point of contact, at the breakdowns, and through a much improved rolling maul. If the Boks can replicate that forward performance, it should create sufficient opportunities to win the game in Soweto.
The tight five has been excellent over the course of the last two games, and the loose forwards have thrived off such a powerful platform. The introduction of Francois Louw and Duane Vermeulen to the starting side, as individuals and as part of a balanced loose trio combination, has been telling.
The Bok forwards will need to be on point in terms of clearing away the likes of Richie McCaw and Andrew Hore from the breakdown, as these All Blacks players excel at not only stealing possession but slowing opposition momentum. On the other hand, men like Louw will have a big role to play in stalling the Kiwis’ attack. The extent to which Louw is able to do so will determine the outcome of the game.
It’s not going to be a try-fest, and I’m not even going to apologise. The best matches, the most absorbing and tightly contested games, are those where both sides come to the party with outstanding defensive systems and kicking games. It takes something special to break the line, let alone score a try. And when that happens, it is all the more reason to celebrate.
The Boks may have produced a strong all-round showing against the Wallabies last week, but they have some way to go before they can boast the All Blacks’ balance between attack and defence.
Meyer has already said this week that the latter strength is more concerning than the former. How are the Boks going to fracture that World Cup-winning All Blacks’ defence?
It won’t be enough to win the forward battles, they will need to with the tussle for territory too. Ruan Pienaar assumed the tactical kicking duties last week, but he will need Johan Goosen to contribute more in a game of this nature. The accuracy of this pair will be crucial, as the All Blacks’ back three all have the potential to punish poor kicks.
Winning territory also won’t be enough, the Boks will need to put points on the board once they have the opposition on the ropes. Goosen has brought a spark to the Bok attack, but he will also be required to convert all shots on goal. It’s a lot of pressure for a 20-year-old to deal with in only his second Test start.
The All Blacks have subtly suggested that they will target Goosen when they are on the attack. What will make the young flyhalf’s task slightly easier is a superior showing by the Bok forwards. Dan Carter and his backline will present less of a gainline threat if they are operating with back-foot ball.
I believe Meyer is doing the right thing by backing Goosen, and I believe that the forwards have the potential to stand up to their All Blacks counterparts. The Calabash is a special place, and there could be another record crowd through the gates tomorrow. Don’t underestimate the galvanising impact that number of people can have on the home team.
But then again, it wasn’t enough before. In 2010, it seemed as if Soccer City had worked it’s magic until the All Blacks snatched a late try at the death.
It will be another close loss for the Boks this Saturday. Their goal-kicking hasn’t been nearly good enough, and that is a big handicap when you are playing the world champions. The All Blacks boast one of the best ever in this respect, namely Dan Carter.
To beat the world champions and stall their world record run would be an outstanding achievement, especially since the Boks aren’t operating at full strength.
However, it is because the Boks aren’t at full strength that a narrow loss should not be seen as a train smash. A close defeat to the All Blacks would not signify a lack of progress.
JC’S PREDICTION: All Blacks by 3
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jaco Taute, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Johan Goosen, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermuelen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Coenie Oosthuizen, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Marcel Coetzee, 20 Elton Jantjies, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Luke Romano, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Tamati Ellison.
285 Comments
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5 Oct 2012, 11:43 am
@cane-197: That’s a joke, right?
There’s supposed to be a screening process. Poeps wouldn’t even make the jury in a Jim Carey movie.
5 Oct 2012, 11:44 am
@cane-197:
Had forgotten what I said
That was back at 161
5 Oct 2012, 11:45 am
Oh my hat
Pops doing jury duty?
5 Oct 2012, 11:46 am
What BS – “Heynecke has revealed that his most realistic goal was to remain unbeaten at home this season”. Why did he not say that before he took the job? Seems like he is drinking his own Kool Aid as he keeps moving the goalposts of his ambition and we are expected to believe the **** he is trying to sell. If, as Springbok coach, your goal is to have an unbeaten home record then perhaps you should get another occupation.
5 Oct 2012, 11:50 am
@Dawn-203: Unless it’s one of those redneck reality TV shows where a “jury” votes on some cosmetically challenged family member’s tacky make-over. That would be Poepa’s cup of tea.
5 Oct 2012, 11:54 am
Where’s Cane to explain this travesty of justice.
5 Oct 2012, 11:56 am
Well isn’t Poeps in Oz? Probably a kangaroo court then.
5 Oct 2012, 11:59 am
The game of the season for me. Nothing beats Blacks vs Boks played in South Africa.
And if Blacks win, the record will be broken for bloody sure.
5 Oct 2012, 12:00 pm
@sharks_lover-200: Rolland. Ok. Thanks Sharks lover.
5 Oct 2012, 12:00 pm
@katman-207:
No man
He flew back to NZ yesterday for a week
No communication, he said
5 Oct 2012, 12:01 pm
Canes formula to determine the victor.
Front Row……………….Even.
Locks………………………slight advantage SA. 0.5 points.
Loosies…………………..Even.
Halves…………………….Advantage NZ 1.0 point.
Midfield…………………..Advantage NZ 1.0 point.
Back three………………Advantage NZ. 1.0 point.
Crowd Home Advantage………………………….SA…….1.0 point.
Home Town Subliminal effect on Ref…………SA 1.0 point.
Desire to win…..Slight advantage SA…………….0.5 points.
Current form based on last match…………………..even.
Over-all. That makes it a draw. 3 points each.
Bugger……………………………I’ll need to find a point somewhere else to engineer this thing.
Oooh ……………………………………..Ritchie is going for hist 100th test win……………1.0 point NZ.
5 Oct 2012, 12:01 pm
Vok I hope the accused isn’t South African
5 Oct 2012, 12:03 pm
@Brads-189:
I mentioned that Pienaar will kick for goals (according to NZ Herald reports) because JC has it in his match prediction that Goosen will have that added pressure.
Doesn’t really matter who takes the shots at goal though.
Conditions are perfect for Boks to ambush the AB’s.
Therefor, Republic of South Arica, by 25.
5 Oct 2012, 12:07 pm
@cane-211:
Ritchie going for his 100th victory
Tier 1 Test Record
I hope it blows up in your faces like it did for Boks (J. Smit 2010) and the 17 streak Boks (Twickenham)
5 Oct 2012, 12:08 pm
@wpstormerbok-213:
I wanted to say Boks by 25 but was scared that people will call me crazy.
I do, however, think the Boks will smash the Kiwis tomorrow. By at least 2 scores.
5 Oct 2012, 12:09 pm
@cane-211: Has he 99 wins?
Think about it, he helped to screw the baddies cappie’s ton there, it would be fitting to get himself a winning ton in the exact awesome stadium.
5 Oct 2012, 12:12 pm
@cane-211: Ah, but your calculations didn’t take into account The Golden Goose shaking off his first match jitters and unleashing the full might of his potential on the opposition: 1.0 points right back at ya.
5 Oct 2012, 12:20 pm
@cane-211:
Oooh … Reechie’s 100th
Did you come in your pants slightly?
5 Oct 2012, 12:24 pm
People are slow to respond here
Or maybe this strike just gives me too much time on my hands
5 Oct 2012, 12:26 pm
@David-188: I considered it but I can’t remember my wikipedia log in details and it’s in table format so i’ll need to figure out how to add another row for 2012. That’s beyond me. Posting on here is about as Web 2.0 as i get. I’ll leave it to the professionals
5 Oct 2012, 12:27 pm
@Hurricane-176: Nice one!
5 Oct 2012, 12:28 pm
@BrumbiesBoy-221:
For goodness sake
“Nice one” to something 60 posts back.
5 Oct 2012, 12:29 pm
CANE
Different topic, but I understand you dislike my Griquas?
Is it because we have always won the fight against the ABs?
Do you remember oom Jimmy Young’s red card in 1974?
The beating the NZ Maoris (including Zinzan and Aran Pene) took in 1994 – both the fight and the game?
The 18-18 draw in 1996?
Schweet
5 Oct 2012, 12:30 pm
@willievz-223: sorry 76 not 74
5 Oct 2012, 12:34 pm
@willievz-223: I don’t think Kiwis have the heart to play rugby on an asphalt pitch,actually nobody should.
5 Oct 2012, 12:37 pm
@Dawn-218:
It would be awesome feat Dawn. Unprecedented in the History of International Rugby.
Maybe, never to be repeated.
And hey…………………………………………………………lets keep things seemly.
@katman-217:
The Goose has not yet laid a Golden Egg…………………………………No point allocated
5 Oct 2012, 12:39 pm
@Dawn-222: Could be 160 back, I don’t care…nice ones deserve “applause”!
Been busy and sometimes these threads fill up so quickly it’s irritating.
Specially for a meaningless dead rubber like tomorrow…
5 Oct 2012, 12:41 pm
@cane-226: If you want to see a golden egg, watch young Johan on Saturday. However, you can watch just about half the AB team if you’re into poached eggs.
5 Oct 2012, 12:42 pm
@cane-226:
I am very seemly.
@BrumbiesBoy-227:
You should try striking. Gives you lots of time.
5 Oct 2012, 12:42 pm
@wnbb-225: Do they wear tennis shoes on that “field”? They must have damn thick skin. No way our backs would be taking contact. Kicking and hospital passes galore
5 Oct 2012, 12:47 pm
@willievz-223:
I don’t “dislike” the Griqualand West Rugby Team Willy.
I despise them.
5 Oct 2012, 12:49 pm
@gonzo-230: If the Bulls don’t have the heart for it,than i don’t expect the Kiwis to have any.Kuk stadium and kuk field.Nothing more to add to it.
5 Oct 2012, 12:50 pm
@willievz-215:
On Keo you can basically say whatever you like,
even when you’re wrong,
misplaced your can of whoop @***,
fallen in then out with Meyer on the basis of him not picking your franchise captain,
or in extreme cases even if you sometimes forget to take your meds and just come online to vent your frustrations on a blog,
you can still come back the next day just a bit more braver.
5 Oct 2012, 12:52 pm
@Dawn-229:
I work for a large fruit & veg company in Jhb & one of our drivers was in a precarious situation in Heidelberg, Tvl last week; he was instructed over the radio to “drive, drive, drive & knock them over if they get in your way.”
Funny now but a colleague & I were watching him on satelite tracking at the time and in a very short space of time it showed us…Speed 0km/h..27km/h…54km/h…63km/h…until he was out of immediate danger.
Not bad for a 4-ton truck!!!
5 Oct 2012, 12:53 pm
@cane-231: But why?
5 Oct 2012, 12:55 pm
@wpstormerbok-233:
I was directed to a Sharks fan wesbite, sharksworld I think? I see they are now cockahoop about the Currie Cup playoffs, and how Lambie at 10 for them, is first going to destroy Goosen in the semi-finals, and then as an afterthought ruin Elton Jantjies in the CC final 
5 Oct 2012, 12:55 pm
@gonzo-220:
5 Oct 2012, 12:57 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-236: “I was directed to a Sharks fan wesbite, sharksworld I think?”
Oh dear, get away from that site as quickly as possible!! It’s dangerous to your health!
5 Oct 2012, 12:58 pm
As one blogger once put it:
“I always liked the Sharks until I met their supporters online”
5 Oct 2012, 12:58 pm
@Nils-216:
How do you feel about, the very slight possibility, that the AB’s might surpass your brother Lithuanians.
5 Oct 2012, 13:01 pm
@willievz-239:
All 6 of them….
5 Oct 2012, 13:01 pm
@willievz-238: @willievz-239:
Yeah, the folk do seem to be a little ‘obssessed’ in a Jack Torrance sort of way…..
They take it all very seriously…and personally it seems
5 Oct 2012, 13:05 pm
@katman-228:
JC’S PREDICTION: All Blacks by 3
Springboks – 1 to 22………………………………….Scambled Eggs.
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 The Fender Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Top Gear, 10 Daniel, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 the next god, 7 god (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Timberdick.
Subs: 16 St. Keven, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Luke Romano, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Tamati Ellison.
5 Oct 2012, 13:10 pm
@BrumbiesBoy-227:
“nice ones deserve “applause”!
And vice versa.
5 Oct 2012, 13:16 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-41:
SALUTE!
5 Oct 2012, 13:24 pm
@cane-243: JC’s prediction? Gimme a break. He couldn’t predict Christmas.
Hang on, we’re talking “JC” Cardinelli here and not the son of god, right? Let me not get on the wrong end of a lightning strike.
5 Oct 2012, 13:30 pm
@katman-246:
You will not know the day or the hour of the strike.
But you will fry.
……………………………………………..sunny side up.
5 Oct 2012, 13:36 pm
@cane-247: Hey, why don’t you eggsaggerate a little?
5 Oct 2012, 13:39 pm
@katman-248: You shouldn’t yolk about these things
5 Oct 2012, 13:42 pm
@Atreides-249: I shell try not to, but cane cracks me up.
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