Currie Cup preview (Final)

Currie Cup preview (Final)

26 Oct 2012

GARETH DUNCAN analyses Saturday’s Currie Cup final between the Sharks and Western Province.

WHY THE SHARKS WILL WIN

Most of the odds lie in the Sharks’ favour: home ground advantage, they have the better team on paper, they have settled combinations and the stronger pack. Let’s not beat around the bush, the Sharks are overwhelming favourites to claim the title.

The Sharks have not lost against any South African team at home during Super Rugby and the Currie Cup. Kings Park has been a fortress against their local rivals, and they will carry that confidence into the title-decider. WP will also go into this match knowing they only won once in the last five against the men from Durban in all competitions. The bashing they received in the Super Rugby semi-final at Newlands must still haunt them.

A key advantage for the hosts will be their expected ascendancy among the heavies. While the Golden Lions boasted the strongest pack for most parts of the domestic competition, the Sharks forwards won that reputation during the latter league rounds and in the semi-final win over the Blue Bulls as their Springboks returned.

The Sharks boast brute strength up front, which has been central on attack and defence, their scrumming performances and setting a quality platform for in-form flyhalf Pat Lambie and his dangerous backline. There’s a 60% chance of rain in Durban on Saturday, highlighting the importance of dominance among the forwards.

Kudos must be given to head coach John Plumtree, who mastered the management of his Test players after they came back from Rugby Championship duty. The Kiwi learned his lesson the hard way last season when he rushed all seven of his internationals into the starting line-up when they jetted back from the World Cup in New Zealand. They struggled to make an impact in the 2011 Currie Cup final at Ellis Park, which saw the Lions ease to a 42-16 win. Plumtree will get the best out of his Boks on Saturday.

Lambie’s most outstanding individual performance came in the 2010 Currie Cup final. He’s yet to eclipse that memory over the last two years, but the signs he’s shown over the last fortnight in the No 10 jersey indicate he’ll be an important player on the pitch on Saturday. Even though he struggled to get game time with the Springboks this season, he’s looked confident at flyhalf and will play a vital role with the boot and in marshalling his team-mates on his outside. A strong run this weekend will force Bok coach Heyneke Meyer’s hand in picking him at pivot (and not fullback) during the end-of-year tour.

If the Sharks gain ascendancy, their backline will thrive. Young scrumhalf Cobus Reinach has been Plumtree’s find of the season, the young centre combination of Paul Jordaan and Tim Whitehead has gelled really well (to think Frans Steyn will still jump into the midfield equation next season), and wing JP Pietersen and fullback Louis Ludik are enjoying a purple patch of form.

This is the Sharks’ final to lose.

WHY WP HAVE A CHANCE

It doesn’t look good for the visitors.

They shocked the Lions by scoring a late try for a 21-16 comeback win in Johannesburg last weekend. But the final against the Sharks should be a step too far.

However, head coach Allister Coetzee and optimistic Province fans will say: ‘never rule out the underdogs’.

The main targets the Cape side will aim for are the lineouts, the breakdown battle and the tactical kicking game. If WP can achieve any ascendancy in these facets of play, they’ll have hope.

The Sharks have been poor at the lineouts in recent weeks, while Province have excelled at the set piece throughout the domestic campaign. Province will miss their injured lineout kingpin Andries Bekker, but if they can continue their impressive showings, they have a platform to attack from. Their driving maul has beaten most defences from close range.

The individual performances of No 8 Duane Vermeulen and flank Deon Fourie will be very influential. Both players have been consistent throughout the year, and their team will need big contributions from them. They’ll be key in the breakdown assault and as ball carriers. Fourie will also need to keep a cool head and not concede needless penalties.

The halfback combination of Nic Groom and Demetri Catrakilis will need to fire. The two players know each other well as they’ve played alongside each other ever since the 2011 Varsity Cup with UCT.

Groom provides quick service and will keep the defenders around the fringes on their toes, which takes some pressure off Catrakilis. The Kings-bound pivot has impressed with the boot when his forwards hold their own up front, but he’s known to falter when defences give him no space or time with the ball. The Province pack need to play their part, as Catrakilis will be a vital part of their tactical kicking game.

If WP can achieve this, they will have the chance to win favourable field positions. If they can milk kickable penalties off the Sharks, the visitors have a sharpshooter to rely on. But I stress, this will be a tough task.

It will be interesting to see how Coetzee’s gamble of starting rookie Damian de Allende at inside centre pays off. Marcel Brache has been inconsistent and many feel JP du Plessis (who’s with the U21s) should’ve been given a go, but Coetzee seems confident De Allende can provide a physical presence. Province can’t afford him to falter.

WP don’t have much running for them, but if they can put the Sharks under pressure in the aforementioned areas, they could find themselves in the position to pull off one of the most unlikeliest upsets of the year.

FORM
Sharks WWLWLWLWWWW
WP LWLWWLWLLWW

Sharks – 15 Louis Ludik, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Paul Jordaan, 12 Tim Whitehead, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Pat Lambie, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Keegan Daniel (c), 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Steven Sykes, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Craig Burden, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Kyle Cooper, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Jandre Marais, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Charl McLeod, 21 Meyer Bosman, 22 Odwa Ndungane.

WP – 15 Gio Aplon, 14 Gerhard van den Heever, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Demetri Catrakilis, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Don Armand, 6 Deon Fourie (c), 5 De Kock Steenkamp, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Scarra Ntubeni, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Subs: 16 Deon Carstens, 17 Brok Harris, 18 Wilhelm van der Sluys, 19 Jebb Sinclair, 20 Louis Schreuder, 21 Marcel Brache, 22 Joe Pietersen.

Gareth’s prediction: Sharks by 15


567 Comments

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  • 1.Heavens Game: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 07:27 am

    BOOM!

  • 2.Sasuke: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 07:50 am

    Gareth my friend, Sharks by 15? It will be much closer than that. Remember this is a final, past results dont matter much. Both teams will be nervous. I think Province by 5.

  • 3.Horings: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 07:55 am

    Predicting a 15 point win in a final when rain is expected?

  • 4.trupisero: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:02 am

    Ja, I think 15 is optimistic for a wet game. 10 should do it :)

    Only positive thing of this site being crocked is that we can read the ******* swearwords in the sidebar.

  • 5.suffer_guy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:02 am

    just can’t see Whitehead & Jordaan stopping Danie Gerber and I also think that Carel & Michael Dup will run circles around JP & Mvovo … also with Nick Mallet & Rob Louw in the forwards, WP has to be favourites … my call : WP by 12!

  • 6.pokkel: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:10 am

    Dragon Sharks!!

  • 7.Finfan: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:11 am

    Too close to call.

  • 8.Guns: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:14 am

    Cant see any comments on mobile or regular mode…

  • 9.kwensie: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:19 am

    Julius Malema, during his fact (read fund!) finding mission to the UK last week, was visiting a Scottish primary school and the class was in the middle of a discussion related to words and their meanings.

    The teacher asked Julius if he would like to lead the discussion on the word ‘Tragedy’.
    …

    So our illustrious ex-leader asked the class for an example of a ‘Tragedy’.

    A little boy stood up and offered, “If ma best freen, wha lives on a ferm, is playin’ in the field and a tractor rins ower him and kills him, that wid be a tragedy?”

    “Incorrect”, said Julius, “That would be an accident.”

    A little girl raised her hand, “If a school bus kerryin’ fifty children drove owr a cliff, killing a ‘body inside, that wid be a tragedy?”

    ‘I’m afraid not’, explained Julius, “that’s what we would refer to as a great loss.

    The room went silent. No other children volunteered. Julius searched the room. “Isn’t there someone here who can give me an example of a tragedy?”

    Finally, at the back of the room, a wee lad raised his hand and, in a quiet voice, said: “If a plane kerryin’ you and your deputy ‘ wiz struck by a ‘freendly fire’ missile & blawn tae smithereens, that wid be a tragedy.”

    “Fantastic!” exclaimed Julius, “and can you tell me why that would be a tragedy?”

    “Weel”, says the lad, “it has tae be a tragedy, because it certainly widnae be a great loss, and it probably widnae be a fockin accident either!”

  • 10.Guns: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:21 am

    No wonder cant see comments, its powered by “WP”touch pro…..###

  • 11.Stormtrooper: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:24 am

    You are forgetting that the Sharks scored 3 tries while WP had 13 then 12 men on the park last time out.Up until then they competitive. The game before that the Sharks won by 3 at Newlands. I think it will be much closer that the Sharks by 15. All the expectations are on the Sharks. The pressure will be on them make no mistake!

  • 12.Finfan: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:25 am

    Keo she is broken today – I can’t see any comments! WTF?!

  • 13.Zandberg Jansen: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:31 am

    I cant see any comments….anybody with a similiar problem?

  • 14.mamma_lou: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:40 am

    ?

  • 15.Gumboots: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:43 am

    What is the use of a blog if you cannot comment or reply to someone… Strange indeed.

  • 16.Mr Black: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:43 am

    Gareth says sharks by 15, i say 10.

  • 17.Gumboots: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:45 am

    Oh so now we read the comments under recent comments… OKEY DOKEY

  • 18.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:46 am

    ja typical response to the truth

  • 19.mamma_lou: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:47 am

    its like blogging through a keyhole
    wat loer kry niks

  • 20.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:47 am

    wp to get a PK! BOOM!

  • 21.David: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:47 am

    Looks like they’ve redesigned the comments section and gone live without testing. Even the login button has gone.

  • 22.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:47 am

    twitter style yeah wp sux!

  • 23.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:48 am

    off to another rugby site to battle the pretenders ho hum

  • 24.Brads: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:49 am

    I assume there is a problem with “keo” if all I can do is post comments.

  • 25.mamma_lou: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:53 am

    amateurs pffffft what happened to testing?

  • 26.David: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:54 am

    Of course, it would help if Keo posted a notice regarding their problem, if they’ve noticed it.

  • 27.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 08:58 am

    cute, doggy, its a CT website. choking come finals haha

  • 28.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:03 am

    deon fourie looks like trailer park to me

  • 29.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:03 am

    keegan is clean cut and well spoken

  • 30.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:04 am

    sums up the situation

  • 31.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:04 am

    tjarks tjarks tjarks!

  • 32.umfezi: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:06 am

    Both sides are pretty good. Should be a cracking final!

  • 33.Rhys7: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:06 am

    Its says they haven’t lost to any SA team throughout CurrieCup and Super rugby…Im sure te Stormers beats them in early rounds..

  • 34.Tuna: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:10 am

    It’s going to be slow, steady and brutal.

  • 35.Chris4Lions: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:13 am

    WP got no chance of winning against the Sharks, and i think even they know it. Sad really.

  • 36.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:17 am

    @Rhys7-33: i think they mean at home.

    but they cant even get upgrades to the site right so what do you expect?

  • 37.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:22 am

    really want to see the wpian scrum getting a look at its own ahswhole.

    the red head kid will be smirking with brown stains on his cheeks.

  • 38.Gumboots: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:23 am

    @wp. winning nothing never looked so easy-37:

    Is Keo paying you for hits? Great job you doing… :lol:

  • 39.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:23 am

    sharks, bulls, lions and cheetahs all united against the wpians.

    everyone loves the good guy sharks.

  • 40.Gumboots: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:23 am

    @wp. winning nothing never looked so easy-39:

    No the Lions are joining WP… LOL

  • 41.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:24 am

    @Gumboots-38: i am therapising the wpians so they dont kick their dogs on saturday night.

  • 42.Gumboots: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:24 am

    @wp. winning nothing never looked so easy-41:

    I’m loving it… You doing a good job…

  • 43.Treehugger: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:26 am

    BOOM BOOM BOOM S H A R K S S S S S S S S S S S

    B O O M !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • 44.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:26 am

    @Gumboots-40:

    35.Chris4Lions: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:13 am

    WP got no chance of winning against the Sharks, and i think even they know it. Sad really.

    sharks voted for the lions wpians sold them down the river so they could poach more lions players.

    then again the wpians know all about relegation.

  • 45.Tacitus: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:26 am

    How many final losses will this now be for WP/the Stormers?

    Allistair gonna have to haul out his “It’s gut wrenching but I will never give up” speech again.

    Or maybe the one where he says: “The Bulls also lost a number of play offs before winning the Super 14 3 times.”

    Allistair’s got losing final speeches mastered by now. I’m just glad that our Bok captain won’t be there to have to suffer the indignity of yet another losing captain speech after a crunch game. He deserves better than that.

  • 46.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:27 am

    @Gumboots-42: :lol:

  • 47.Treehugger: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:27 am

    I can read comments, am using opera browser on BB. Couldn’t last night though.

  • 48.stormersboy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:28 am

    If the Sharks can get pumped by Griquas then anything is possible.

    Yes we can!!!

  • 49.wp. winning nothing never looked so easy: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:28 am

    keegan daniel will bamboozle duane all night long.

    like a thoroughbred vs a gluehorse.

  • 50.Heavens Game: Reply to this comment
    26 Oct 2012, 09:29 am

    Schönes Fräulein, lust auf mehr
    Blitzkrieg mit dem Fleischgewehr
    Schnaps im Kopf, du holde Braut
    Steck Bratwurst in dein Sauerkraut!

    BOOM!

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Keo.co.za has always promoted uncensored views, but has never tolerated racist or crass outbursts. Come on guys and girls. If you can't moderate yourselves or each other then I am going to be forced to regulate the posts and enforce a registration process for comments. The choice is yours.

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