Preview: Ireland vs Springboks
9 Nov 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner of the year-end tour Test in Dublin.
The optimism among Ireland supporters appeared to be high when I first arrived in Dublin last Saturday, but I’ve since sensed a steady shift to something bordering pessimism, in light of injuries to key and experienced players. They still hope for an Ireland victory, of course, but there is none of the strong belief that had accompanied their ambition in recent meetings at Lansdowne Road.
Ireland have won three of the last four Tests in the city. Experienced and respected men among their media contingent predict that dominance will end, despite acknowledging the Springboks’ own struggles with injuries and their poor form in 2012. I think they’re right, although any Springbok victory will not be accompanied by glowing praise of the beauty of their performance.
The forecast is for cold but clear conditions at kick-off, which will assist the attacking play of both sides, not that either team is likely to thrill in their own territory. The Boks won’t veer from the kick-chase method when in their half, and they will look to put Ireland’s receivers under pressure with committed chasers. The hosts have consistently pointed to the importance of putting their primary punters – Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie and Zane Kirchner – under pressure. I don’t foresee them achieving this, with the Springboks’ pack likely to be dominant and in so doing buying the aforementioned players time to set themselves and pick their spots (they’ll target fullback Simon Zebo), whether that be up-and-unders or kicks into space.
Pat Lambie’s tactical game showed improvements in the Currie Cup, but the pressure of Test matches is incomparable and he’ll be under close scrutiny in this regard. Lambie will also be thrust further into the spotlight if the Springboks succeed in pressuring Ireland into penalties in kickable positions. He has kicked superbly of late and needs to replicate that form on the international stage. Certainly if Ireland find their attacking groove they are capable of punishing the Springboks for infringements, with Jonathan Sexton and Ronan O’Gara among the most accurate Test goal-kickers in 2012.
If Lambie wobbles with the boot the Springboks have problems. Statistically no team in the world has spent more time in the opposition’s 22m than they have this year, yet the return in terms of tries scored has been desperately poor. They have consistently conceded penalties or made handling errors when on attack in this zone. There needs to be a dramatic reduction in both counts. The Springboks simply have to be more clinical.
The Bok pack has fronted well in set and general play, even against the All Blacks, who are widely regarded to be the strongest eight in the game. They’ll be too good for the Irish, who’ll miss Paul O’Connell’s physicality and leadership and Sean O’Brein’s industry and potency at the breakdown. If Francois Louw can impose himself at breakdown time (off the back of a good gainline contest) it will further compound Ireland’s attacking struggles. I think he will, with Declan Kidney’s team not possessing enough high calibre strike runners to boss the tackle and render Louw a non-factor.
Expect parity at scrum time, while the tourists will boss the lineouts, where their rolling maul will be a massive weapon.
Overall, Ireland will be a fierce competitor but not one with the quality to take advantage of a significantly weakened Springbok side.
VREDE’S CALL: Springboks by 10
1,019 Comments
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10 Nov 2012, 14:51 pm
1000!
10 Nov 2012, 14:51 pm
@I am a stormer-1000:
BINGO!!
10 Nov 2012, 14:51 pm
@Liewe Luiperd-1001:
Sucker!!
10 Nov 2012, 14:51 pm
3 out of 3.
Nothing less.
10 Nov 2012, 14:52 pm
Anyway, I’m out but will be back for the game.
10 Nov 2012, 14:55 pm
I think the IRB’s residency/nationality rules are absolutely RIDICULOUS!
To think that boerseun Richardt Strauss is now “Irish” by virtue of only living there for 3 years…. is a complete JOKE.
In my view, and this applies to obtaining a passport/nationality in a non-sporting sense too, you should live full time in a country for at least 10 consecutive years before you qualify for citizenship.
10 Nov 2012, 14:55 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-997:
So you have problems with teams with good backlines and attacking power.
Thanks for admitting this…now we can all move on.
10 Nov 2012, 14:55 pm
@ryecatcher-999:
Funny thing is I thought it was the right move not to pick him because Kleinveldt is a exceptional talent but whilst watching the highlights of the English series this morning I saw that Tahir took some vital wickets just at the right time which probably won us the series.
10 Nov 2012, 14:58 pm
@Hurricane-1007:
ja i do, if good backlines and attacking power is a euphemism for ‘filthy cheaters’, you f.okken right i do.
10 Nov 2012, 15:00 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-1009:
sad guy really.
You need to growthefuk up and man up about losing.
Otherwise its going to be a lonely life with you blaming everyone else….bitter old fool.
10 Nov 2012, 15:04 pm
@Hurricane-1010:
lighten up, hurri.
your team cheats and my team loses, so what… this does not mean we have to be bitter and filled with contempt of one another on a blog.
10 Nov 2012, 15:08 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-1011:
Your team is dirty and loses…..there we go i am happy.
10 Nov 2012, 15:13 pm
@Hurricane-1012:
farkit, a beakthrough
ok, i accept. my team is dirty and loses and your team cheats professionaly as a unit.
(shake my hand, sir)
skud my hand, meneer
10 Nov 2012, 15:52 pm
Ag, bless you, Bakkies!!!
10 Nov 2012, 17:35 pm
I have not seen a 1,000 thread for a while. This before the game even starts!!
10 Nov 2012, 17:50 pm
Arrgh, excited, I have a foot in both camps here. Lots of interesting little subplots, Strauss vs Strauss, Heinke and CJ vs their Leinster teammates, Pienaar vs his Ulster teammates and Jean vs his former protege Earls. Unfortunatley for Ireland I think they’re in real trouble here, they simply don’t have the depth of SA and most of the team are playing together for the first time. Still I think it will be ferociously physical and Ireland as always will make a real fight of it.
10 Nov 2012, 18:26 pm
Hi Skop.Enjoy the game pal.
10 Nov 2012, 18:29 pm
do it boks
do it
10 Nov 2012, 19:14 pm
Well at least it is not pouring with rain tonight in Ireland for the Boks!
Must be hard leaving the sun in South Africa to come here to our Autumn…..and playing in the dark!!
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