Preview: Ireland vs Springboks

Preview: Ireland vs Springboks

9 Nov 2012

RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner of the year-end tour Test in Dublin.

The optimism among Ireland supporters appeared to be high when I first arrived in Dublin last Saturday, but I’ve since sensed a steady shift to something bordering pessimism, in light of injuries to key and experienced players. They still hope for an Ireland victory, of course, but there is none of the strong belief that had accompanied their ambition in recent meetings at Lansdowne Road.

Ireland have won three of the last four Tests in the city. Experienced and respected men among their media contingent predict that dominance will end, despite acknowledging the Springboks’ own struggles with injuries and their poor form in 2012. I think they’re right, although any Springbok victory will not be accompanied by glowing praise of the beauty of their performance.

The forecast is for cold but clear conditions at kick-off, which will assist the attacking play of both sides, not that either team is likely to thrill in their own territory. The Boks won’t veer from the kick-chase method when in their half, and they will look to put Ireland’s receivers under pressure with committed chasers. The hosts have consistently pointed to the importance of putting their primary punters – Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie and Zane Kirchner – under pressure. I don’t foresee them achieving this, with the Springboks’ pack likely to be dominant and in so doing buying the aforementioned players time to set themselves and pick their spots (they’ll target fullback Simon Zebo), whether that be up-and-unders or kicks into space.

Pat Lambie’s tactical game showed improvements in the Currie Cup, but the pressure of Test matches is incomparable and he’ll be under close scrutiny in this regard. Lambie will also be thrust further into the spotlight if the Springboks succeed in pressuring Ireland into penalties in kickable positions. He has kicked superbly of late and needs to replicate that form on the international stage. Certainly if Ireland find their attacking groove they are capable of punishing the Springboks for infringements, with Jonathan Sexton and Ronan O’Gara among the most accurate Test goal-kickers in 2012.

If Lambie wobbles with the boot the Springboks have problems. Statistically no team in the world has spent more time in the opposition’s 22m than they have this year, yet the return in terms of tries scored has been desperately poor. They have consistently conceded penalties or made handling errors when on attack in this zone. There needs to be a dramatic reduction in both counts. The Springboks simply have to be more clinical.

The Bok pack has fronted well in set and general play, even against the All Blacks, who are widely regarded to be the strongest eight in the game. They’ll be too good for the Irish, who’ll miss Paul O’Connell’s physicality and leadership and Sean O’Brein’s industry and potency at the breakdown. If Francois Louw can impose himself at breakdown time (off the back of a good gainline contest) it will further compound Ireland’s attacking struggles. I think he will, with Declan Kidney’s team not possessing enough high calibre strike runners to boss the tackle and render Louw a non-factor.

Expect parity at scrum time, while the tourists will boss the lineouts, where their rolling maul will be a massive weapon.

Overall, Ireland will be a fierce competitor but not one with the quality to take advantage of a significantly weakened Springbok side.

VREDE’S CALL: Springboks by 10


1,019 Comments

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  • 451.cane: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:16 pm

    @i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-442:

    I would testify!

    For the prosecution.

  • 452.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:16 pm

    @stormersboy-436:
    exactly :lol:

    in a way, i feel we saved their dignity to an extent.

  • 453.David: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:16 pm

    @stormersboy-443:
    Just a pity that Koster left before HM could pick him at outside centre. :lol:

  • 454.stormersboy: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:16 pm

    @Jeraldjay-446: Ja but I heard that they will move Deon back to 2.

    Which is a shame really.

  • 455.The Rangerman: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:17 pm

    @cane-445: not our fault caner, kobus kitty skull k no bbed him.

    sadly with poopsie it was like throwing a sausage into a hallway.

  • 456.wnbb: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:17 pm

    @i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-433: considering that a bulls mother is a cow ,you okes absolutely deserve all the abuse coming your way. :D

  • 457.Nikita: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:17 pm

    @cane-438:

    It’s all Kulula Cane. Noone cares more.

  • 458.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:17 pm

    @David-444:
    hehehe

    (sniggers)

  • 459.David: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:17 pm

    @Jeraldjay-446:
    I think Fourie stated that his days at 6 are over.

  • 460.Heavens Game: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:17 pm

    POP!!!

  • 461.Rockn Rolla: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:17 pm

    @gunther-439:

    I thought Gene Simmonds was that reason

  • 462.stormersboy: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:18 pm

    @David-453: Well he was tried at wing a few times…..

    @i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-452: A public service then.

  • 463.skopdiekan: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:18 pm

    I just love how all the smooth operators pretend to be faultless

    This coach could have had an unbeatable team but he is intent on wanting to learn the rugby ropes the hard way

    This how he should have played this team

    Taute, JPP, JdV, De Jongh, Mapoe
    Lambie, Hougaard
    Vermeulen, Coetsee, Louw
    Etsebeth, Alberts
    JdP, Brits, Beast

    Cilliers, Strauss (should be Fourie or Chili), CJ, Vd Merwe / Kruger, Botha, Pienaar, Jantjies, Kirchner / Mvovo

  • 464.The Rangerman: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:18 pm

    @ufo-450: i think the way they left may be making it hard for them to come back but who really gives a toss what anyone else here thinks right?

  • 465.Jeraldjay: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:18 pm

    @stormersboy-454:
    Scarra covers Liebenberg.

    We need a “to the ball” 6.

    Makes no sense.

  • 466.BrumbiesBoy: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:19 pm

    @The Rangerman-448: You’re forgiven.

    But don’t do it again.

  • 467.DublinShark: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:19 pm

    @wnbb-426:
    Sorry, no. Would love to though. We have to live with the fact that the world talks of the Irish economy in the same breath as ‘Greece’!! R500 equivalent for a ticket is extortionate. I guess I’m saying R500 = a big gamble on a game our recent track record says we have difficulty winning. Plus, the ‘Govt.’ has me tied up until kickoff doing other things.

  • 468.Nikita: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:20 pm

    @The Rangerman-464:

    Sticky keyboards?

  • 469.stormersboy: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:20 pm

    @Jeraldjay-465: Agreed. Scarra’s on field play has come on in leaps and bounds this year too. i would be a shame to have him in the doldrums again.

  • 470.zub: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:20 pm

    Duminy ruptures Achilles tendon. Out for 6 months.

  • 471.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:20 pm

    @cane-451:
    you cant be called as a witness.
    serious conflict of interest
    :lol:

    @wnbb-456:
    see, now this is one instance where i get to tell you, ‘your sentence is not very well constructed. please rephrase that.’ .. rather than the other way around :lol:

  • 472.David: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:21 pm

    @stormersboy-462:
    I know. A big fast loosie at 13 is the stuff that HMs wet dreams are made of. :lol:

  • 473.Jeraldjay: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:21 pm

    @zub-470:
    Fark……………………………………………………..

  • 474.Nikita: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:21 pm

    @Jeraldjay-465:

    Really. Scarra covers Liebenberg – we need a to the ball 6. Interesting reading.

  • 475.stormersboy: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:22 pm

    i just caught a headline on IOL’s page:

    “Zille Stoned in De Doorns”

    Who knew it was such a party town??

    And the Dame? Didn’t know she had it in her.

  • 476.David: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:22 pm

    @zub-470:
    Damn, no spinner and batsmen for the rest of the match.

  • 477.skopdiekan: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:22 pm

    @i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-409: now that is about as accurate as you ever gonna get.. that was precisely what happened and all these poef artists wanna blame Nikkichita for their little overblown gasket of expectation which they couldn’t quite manage to keep unblown… chicken artists if ever any have been seen to be so presumtiously cool

  • 478.The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:22 pm

    Oh dear. When I left all the talk was of happy things. And now it’s all gone for a ball of sh y te.

    Even worse is Duminy’s ankle injury? Seems bad? What now…. (always takes a wicket or 2 when he does his part time stuff….eish man.

    And the Boks.

    The stuff of ulcers, all of this.

  • 479.The Rangerman: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:22 pm

    @skopdiekan-463: tell us more oh rugby guru.

  • 480.wnbb: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:23 pm

    @DublinShark-467: Same here.In any case I am tired of listening to that dreaded Fields of Athenry rendition when the Irish know that they got us by the balls :D

  • 481.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:24 pm

    @skopdiekan-463:
    thats a good team selection, skop.
    i would have made provision for gurthro though, and rather aplon than mvovo.

  • 482.stormersboy: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:24 pm

    @zub-470: Sherbert.

    And we are a batsman short for 2 innings, and minus a spinner.

  • 483.Nikita: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:24 pm

    @stormersboy-475:

    :lol:

  • 484.Superbru: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:25 pm

    @zub-470: Sh*t…that’s a disaster for this test match!

  • 485.David: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:25 pm

    @The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-478:
    Yeah, and he did it in the warmdown before the match.

  • 486.The Rangerman: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:25 pm

    @BrumbiesBoy-466: :lol:

    @Nikita-468: keep quiet woman you are polluting my banter with ruggabuggas.

    @skopdiekan-477: presumtiously?

    put on your predictive text.

  • 487.skopdiekan: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:25 pm

    @stormersboy-454: nope Fourie should always play 2 up front, play 6 only under emergency or reshuffle on sub impact.

    Fourie should have been on tour with Boks.

    AC’s biggest mistake was playing Fourie at 8 that is how he lost the S14 semi playing Deon Fourie at 8 when he had Quinn Roux and Armand to cover 7 or 8.

  • 488.DublinShark: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:25 pm

    @wnbb-480:
    Now you’re getting closer to the truth!!

  • 489.Sasuke: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:26 pm

    @zub-470: Damn thats bad!

    @stormersboy-482: Is there no substitutions in cricket? I mean something as serious as that the team should be able to put their 12th man in.

  • 490.The Rangerman: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:27 pm

    @wnbb-480: you are a garrulous little fcker today eh?

    shouldnt you be somewhere burning a cornfield?

  • 491.David: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:28 pm

    @Sasuke-489:
    Not in this case. I think they have until just before the toss to change the team, so it must have been after the toss.

  • 492.stormersboy: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:29 pm

    @Sasuke-489: To field yes. But no batting or bowling.

  • 493.The Rangerman: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:29 pm

    @Nikita-483: dont slide off your chair.

  • 494.Jeraldjay: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:29 pm

    @Nikita-474:
    Spoilt for choice.

    I’m not a big Schalk fan so I’d prefer Fourie/Kolisi/Vermuelen but if Fourie moves back to hooker we’ll end up with is a Kolisi/Schalk/Vermuelen combo.

  • 495.skopdiekan: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:29 pm

    @The Rangerman-479: yeah wouldn’yt you just like to know

    I I were managing this Bok team instead of the chicken artists that pretend they’re rugby fundies.. they wouldn’t have lost one game this year.. let alone a measly 40% success rate against mediocre opposition… or the WC last year.. they would be No.1 team in the world. and there would never be even a hint of any underhanded racial obviation being bandied about as a presumptuous agenda.

  • 496.wnbb: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:30 pm

    @The Rangerman-490: :D . Howdy Ranger.All well?

  • 497.The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:31 pm

    @David-485: Now I see it’s sh y te serious….. Oh boy, guess who wakes up happier, it won’t be the Proteas. Fokfokfokfokfokfokfok.

  • 498.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:31 pm

    @David-472:
    who wouln’t cream themselves at that.. :lol:

    @skopdiekan-477:
    thanks skop, earning a compliment from you is a badge of honour :grin:
    (no jokes… i mean that,boet :lol: )

  • 499.suffer_guy: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:31 pm

    won’t miss Duminy anyway ,… ANCYL won’t be happy – 1 quota less in the team!!!

  • 500.skopdiekan: Reply to this comment
    9 Nov 2012, 14:31 pm

    @i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-481: yup me too but I only picked those he took on tour, Aplon would have been first choice at 11, and Gurthro first choice at 1 with Beast on bench.

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