Preview: Ireland vs Springboks
9 Nov 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner of the year-end tour Test in Dublin.
The optimism among Ireland supporters appeared to be high when I first arrived in Dublin last Saturday, but I’ve since sensed a steady shift to something bordering pessimism, in light of injuries to key and experienced players. They still hope for an Ireland victory, of course, but there is none of the strong belief that had accompanied their ambition in recent meetings at Lansdowne Road.
Ireland have won three of the last four Tests in the city. Experienced and respected men among their media contingent predict that dominance will end, despite acknowledging the Springboks’ own struggles with injuries and their poor form in 2012. I think they’re right, although any Springbok victory will not be accompanied by glowing praise of the beauty of their performance.
The forecast is for cold but clear conditions at kick-off, which will assist the attacking play of both sides, not that either team is likely to thrill in their own territory. The Boks won’t veer from the kick-chase method when in their half, and they will look to put Ireland’s receivers under pressure with committed chasers. The hosts have consistently pointed to the importance of putting their primary punters – Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie and Zane Kirchner – under pressure. I don’t foresee them achieving this, with the Springboks’ pack likely to be dominant and in so doing buying the aforementioned players time to set themselves and pick their spots (they’ll target fullback Simon Zebo), whether that be up-and-unders or kicks into space.
Pat Lambie’s tactical game showed improvements in the Currie Cup, but the pressure of Test matches is incomparable and he’ll be under close scrutiny in this regard. Lambie will also be thrust further into the spotlight if the Springboks succeed in pressuring Ireland into penalties in kickable positions. He has kicked superbly of late and needs to replicate that form on the international stage. Certainly if Ireland find their attacking groove they are capable of punishing the Springboks for infringements, with Jonathan Sexton and Ronan O’Gara among the most accurate Test goal-kickers in 2012.
If Lambie wobbles with the boot the Springboks have problems. Statistically no team in the world has spent more time in the opposition’s 22m than they have this year, yet the return in terms of tries scored has been desperately poor. They have consistently conceded penalties or made handling errors when on attack in this zone. There needs to be a dramatic reduction in both counts. The Springboks simply have to be more clinical.
The Bok pack has fronted well in set and general play, even against the All Blacks, who are widely regarded to be the strongest eight in the game. They’ll be too good for the Irish, who’ll miss Paul O’Connell’s physicality and leadership and Sean O’Brein’s industry and potency at the breakdown. If Francois Louw can impose himself at breakdown time (off the back of a good gainline contest) it will further compound Ireland’s attacking struggles. I think he will, with Declan Kidney’s team not possessing enough high calibre strike runners to boss the tackle and render Louw a non-factor.
Expect parity at scrum time, while the tourists will boss the lineouts, where their rolling maul will be a massive weapon.
Overall, Ireland will be a fierce competitor but not one with the quality to take advantage of a significantly weakened Springbok side.
VREDE’S CALL: Springboks by 10
1,019 Comments
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9 Nov 2012, 14:32 pm
It was the warm down after the days play.
Not the warm up before the days play.
Can’t change him.
9 Nov 2012, 14:32 pm
@David-485: Isnt it after?
9 Nov 2012, 14:33 pm
@gunther-501: Exactly
9 Nov 2012, 14:34 pm
@The Rangerman-490:
‘burning a cornfield’
9 Nov 2012, 14:34 pm
@wnbb-496:
very well thanks and you?
9 Nov 2012, 14:34 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-497: I guess so.Will be a huge lift for them.Luckily we played the extra batsman,so,it might not be all doom and gloom.Pitch look good enough to go big in the first innings.Deprive us of a spinning option though.
9 Nov 2012, 14:35 pm
@David-491: Check the posts further up. After the days play.
9 Nov 2012, 14:35 pm
anyway – it will make Kallis & “the dictator” concentrate more …. joost played the 1995 RWC with a broken shoulder( & Greame Smith with a broken hand)…. will Duminy pull a poefter and not try and bat if his country needs him? pisgat ..
9 Nov 2012, 14:35 pm
@gunther-501:
What was he warming down from? Don’t they have a warm up before the toss in case they’re fielding?
9 Nov 2012, 14:36 pm
@Sasuke-507: Kicking a rugby ball of all things. There we linked the cricket to this site!
9 Nov 2012, 14:36 pm
@skopdiekan-495: you are awesome.
now take your meds and stop talking k u k, this isnt fantasy forest.
9 Nov 2012, 14:37 pm
@David-509:
true hey, I thinking from sitting whole day they need a warm down.
9 Nov 2012, 14:37 pm
@suffer_guy-508: graeme smith played in the 95 rwc?
wake up you illiterate postal worker.
9 Nov 2012, 14:38 pm
@gunther-305: “fence sitter” my toe!
fokkof!
9 Nov 2012, 14:38 pm
@Sasuke-507:
Yep, just read the full report.
9 Nov 2012, 14:38 pm
hows everyone doing?
warming up for the weekend?
9 Nov 2012, 14:39 pm
@wnbb-506: Very true. We are still on for a 450/500 tommorrow. It’s bowling the Aussies out twice that worries me, already did when it was clear the wicket was rather ‘slow’.
9 Nov 2012, 14:39 pm
@David-509:
The whole team has a warm down at the end of the days play regardless of whether they have batted or fielded.
They warm up before they start.
9 Nov 2012, 14:39 pm
@skopdiekan-500:
yes, a very, very good bok team.
i supose sometimes its a curse for one country to be blessed with so many of the best rugby players in the entire world.
worse when they all coming up in the same eras.
9 Nov 2012, 14:40 pm
@Transformation-514: he is correct transie.
at least next year you will have a team finally.
its going to probably feel quite odd but you will be ok in the long run.
9 Nov 2012, 14:40 pm
@Transformation-514:
Settle
9 Nov 2012, 14:40 pm
@The Rangerman-516: A weekend of cricket and rugby yes
This cricket being played across time zones is not good though….
9 Nov 2012, 14:42 pm
@suffer_guy-508: Lordyouareoneofthosewhoneedsconstantprayer.
9 Nov 2012, 14:42 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-522: its great agreed but i will be in the water hunting by 5 am so i will miss the cricky again.
maybe time for a bit of a fish fry up for brekkie before it ends?
9 Nov 2012, 14:42 pm
Jeez! I was so concerned this morning when we into the game without a recognised spinner, but thought JP could do the job if needed on day 4&5. Jacques hasn’t been bowling of late and neither has Graeme. We now sit without a spinner. SA did well on this wicket. Most think it was playing easy, but it wasn’t. The batsmen were never really in. Hopefully our quickies can exert more pressure and force errors. I believe the weather may play havoc as well. They are expecting quite a bit of rain. I hope not…
9 Nov 2012, 14:43 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-522: Yip going to have to wake up early to catch the end of the S.A innings and the beginning of the Aus innings.
9 Nov 2012, 14:43 pm
@The Rangerman-520: shut up…
9 Nov 2012, 14:43 pm
@The Rangerman-511: @The Rangerman-511:
pity is you dumb cleverdick idiotic pseudo intellect morons got sweet fanny all clue about rugby and how it should function.. so you fanny about with every conceivable connotation going when the simplest solution is staring you straight in your dumb schmuck eyes.
One more little moronic ******** round here that thinks its bright and bushy tailed clever when fact is you so emphatically dumb.
9 Nov 2012, 14:43 pm
@The Rangerman-524:
Saarkswors.
9 Nov 2012, 14:44 pm
@gunther-521: how did you get to support the bulls in anycase?
9 Nov 2012, 14:44 pm
@Transformation-527:
like you did after the cheetahs kings promo game?
i expect more of the same in 2013.
maybe even a nic change.
9 Nov 2012, 14:44 pm
Blisters on handies yet?
No?
Then… Carry on….
spankwankspankwankspankwankspankwankspankwankspankwank
9 Nov 2012, 14:45 pm
@The Rangerman-524: big f’ng Rambo hunting little fishies that can’t defend themselves.. I hope you come across a real live croc and try shoot him in the tail let him hunt you down for a change.
9 Nov 2012, 14:45 pm
@Transformation-514:
its true, transie.
as i told you before, your lips are cheap.
but next season they will pay the price
and considering your history here… it wont come so cheap after all
9 Nov 2012, 14:46 pm
@The Rangerman-524: You can catch a few hours before you go diving
More than enough time to sleep when you’re older.
This test (and I’m guessing the series) looks as though it’s going to be pretty epic.
9 Nov 2012, 14:47 pm
Rangerman, no you f*cknut .. he played in the last test series in Aus .. with a broken hand.. verbruik jou verstand soutpi3l, los die durban poison
9 Nov 2012, 14:47 pm
@skopdiekan-528: say what you mean man.
coach snoeky
@gunther-529: that will be second choice if one of those little rats tries taxing me again.
shot a beaut of a kingie (fulvy) in ponta douro last weekend.
with a fernandos hangover from R&R that would have killed smarter men.
first 3 huge potato bass tried to rob me, then a blacktip reef shark.
feeling protective over my food at the moment.
9 Nov 2012, 14:48 pm
@The Rangerman-531:
‘The artist formerly known as Transformation’
9 Nov 2012, 14:48 pm
@Transformation-530:
Naas Botha.
9 Nov 2012, 14:48 pm
@Heavens Game-532: We don’t want to play audience to your w-a-n-kathon. I have no interest in hearing the glee in your voice as you praise your lack of blisters……
Dirtyloldgoat.
9 Nov 2012, 14:48 pm
skittle sticks is for the birds mon.. yet its big action stations across the global sporting front watching a few prancing poeftas try straddle the crease.
9 Nov 2012, 14:49 pm
@The Rangerman-531: hahaha i was at Pktoberfest getting sozzled strongly
sorry i didn’t come grace the forum for your schaudenfreuden tl tl tl
9 Nov 2012, 14:50 pm
Duminy moes eerder meer gym werk gedoen het om sy bene as om te worry oor al die aknee merke op sy gesig … kort meer sterk boertjies in die span wat tuff is …
9 Nov 2012, 14:50 pm
@skopdiekan-533: a croc?
the only croc i expect to see is a “croc” couta or really big king mackerel.
great eating even if i have to use a bandsaw to cut the steaks.
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-535: eish, i’m tired thinking about it haha.
@suffer_guy-536: go back to school ingrate.
9 Nov 2012, 14:51 pm
@The Rangerman-531: no nic, change charlie…watch the Kings make a statement in our opening game when we moer the Force!
#go kings!
9 Nov 2012, 14:51 pm
@Sasuke-526: Tough times ahead
I have a koffie maker that starts making the brew at a pre-set time (with alarm). Time for this machine to earn it’s keep.
9 Nov 2012, 14:51 pm
@Transformation-530: just like Keohane and the two hundred and 50 million Barca and Manu supporters they all try clamber after the top dog.. till the top dog goes belly flop then they suddenly start looking for another branded flip flop top dog to tail after.
9 Nov 2012, 14:52 pm
@Transformation-530:
It’s along story.
I’ll tell you over a beer sometime.
9 Nov 2012, 14:52 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-538:
@Transformation-542: yes yes transformation, its ok dont worry lad.
9 Nov 2012, 14:52 pm
@Transformation-527: BTW, “Mr Memory,” remember when I told you I’d find an article (in my own time) about how Oregin Hoskins (SARU/Roux) lied to everyone that the Kinks’ inclusion in Super Rugby would not be at the expense of any existing franchise?
And remember you said you know nothing about that?
Remember?
I happened to go onto the Kinks’ website yesterday and found plenty of it.
Funny that you never saw those articles…
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