Preview: Ireland vs Springboks
9 Nov 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner of the year-end tour Test in Dublin.
The optimism among Ireland supporters appeared to be high when I first arrived in Dublin last Saturday, but I’ve since sensed a steady shift to something bordering pessimism, in light of injuries to key and experienced players. They still hope for an Ireland victory, of course, but there is none of the strong belief that had accompanied their ambition in recent meetings at Lansdowne Road.
Ireland have won three of the last four Tests in the city. Experienced and respected men among their media contingent predict that dominance will end, despite acknowledging the Springboks’ own struggles with injuries and their poor form in 2012. I think they’re right, although any Springbok victory will not be accompanied by glowing praise of the beauty of their performance.
The forecast is for cold but clear conditions at kick-off, which will assist the attacking play of both sides, not that either team is likely to thrill in their own territory. The Boks won’t veer from the kick-chase method when in their half, and they will look to put Ireland’s receivers under pressure with committed chasers. The hosts have consistently pointed to the importance of putting their primary punters – Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie and Zane Kirchner – under pressure. I don’t foresee them achieving this, with the Springboks’ pack likely to be dominant and in so doing buying the aforementioned players time to set themselves and pick their spots (they’ll target fullback Simon Zebo), whether that be up-and-unders or kicks into space.
Pat Lambie’s tactical game showed improvements in the Currie Cup, but the pressure of Test matches is incomparable and he’ll be under close scrutiny in this regard. Lambie will also be thrust further into the spotlight if the Springboks succeed in pressuring Ireland into penalties in kickable positions. He has kicked superbly of late and needs to replicate that form on the international stage. Certainly if Ireland find their attacking groove they are capable of punishing the Springboks for infringements, with Jonathan Sexton and Ronan O’Gara among the most accurate Test goal-kickers in 2012.
If Lambie wobbles with the boot the Springboks have problems. Statistically no team in the world has spent more time in the opposition’s 22m than they have this year, yet the return in terms of tries scored has been desperately poor. They have consistently conceded penalties or made handling errors when on attack in this zone. There needs to be a dramatic reduction in both counts. The Springboks simply have to be more clinical.
The Bok pack has fronted well in set and general play, even against the All Blacks, who are widely regarded to be the strongest eight in the game. They’ll be too good for the Irish, who’ll miss Paul O’Connell’s physicality and leadership and Sean O’Brein’s industry and potency at the breakdown. If Francois Louw can impose himself at breakdown time (off the back of a good gainline contest) it will further compound Ireland’s attacking struggles. I think he will, with Declan Kidney’s team not possessing enough high calibre strike runners to boss the tackle and render Louw a non-factor.
Expect parity at scrum time, while the tourists will boss the lineouts, where their rolling maul will be a massive weapon.
Overall, Ireland will be a fierce competitor but not one with the quality to take advantage of a significantly weakened Springbok side.
VREDE’S CALL: Springboks by 10
1,019 Comments
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10 Nov 2012, 08:33 am
All the talk about merit selections at flyhalf/13/fullback for me ignores an even greater risk for the boks: no real cover at openside. Flo was barely declared fit. If he goes off injured, we will be back to having Coetzee out of his favourite position at 6. And we see how that worked in the draw against argentina. Don’t get me wrong: coetzee is a promising 7/8, but to have no cover specialist openside even in the squad shows HM is a very slow learner….
10 Nov 2012, 08:47 am
@peanut_g-901: A glaring weakness in the squad selected…well said.
10 Nov 2012, 08:57 am
@peanut_g-901:
Meyer not really convinced yet re a fetcher, if you ask me. If he was, he would’ve selected cover for Flo.
Instead, he selected 5 freakin WINGS for a three match tour.
10 Nov 2012, 09:01 am
I would have selected D Fourie in a heartbeat…..
10 Nov 2012, 09:35 am
@nama1-874: Interesting final sentence.
Mass action?
10 Nov 2012, 10:06 am
@ryecatcher-905:
No, at least three of them are LEFT wings. :lol
10 Nov 2012, 10:09 am
@peanut_g-901: @grant10-902: @nama1-903: If Louw breaks down early we’re in big trouble. Coetzee is far from the kind of player we need at openside. Vermuelen has been pretty good at the breakdown though.
10 Nov 2012, 10:12 am
@grant10-904:
I bet you Meyer will select Schalk at 6 the moment he is available. His preferred trio is probably:
6. Schalk
7. Alberts
8. Vermeulen
We gonna get moered silly with that trio next year.
10 Nov 2012, 10:15 am
@Spiesisworthless1-907:
Agree. I’m not really convinced by Coetzee yet. He does the basics very well but he does not give you that something extra imo.
See the probable Meyer trio I put up. What do you think?
10 Nov 2012, 10:23 am
@nama1-909:
Kolisi does have that ‘Extra’ to deliver, Carr too
Provided they don’t injured their hands!
10 Nov 2012, 10:42 am
nama: that trio is kak slow…plus they ALL look for contact with only schalk possessing anything resembling an off-load game.
10 Nov 2012, 10:46 am
@nama1-909: Looks about right. The balance of a potential loose trio wont matter long as the guys are 5 kg bigger than the next man. Also wouldn’t be surprised if Spies is given another shot. Pretty sure he’s 2nd choice to Vermuelen at least in Meyers mind
10 Nov 2012, 10:49 am
@Spiesisworthless1-912: should say at least 2nd choice.
10 Nov 2012, 10:52 am
@nama1-908:
Schalk will have to play his way back into contention next year. Because you can’t just go and drop Flo all of a sudden. I think even HM is seeing the value of him there at 6.
So Schalk would have to move to 7.
Interesting times. Because it remains to be seen if HM keeps JDV on as captain next year. Otherwise, next Bok captain could be……..?
10 Nov 2012, 11:00 am
@nama1-908: that loose trio will be a disaster ….free lunches all over again….like the Spies…J Smith and Schalk trios used to hand out ….
Brussow….Flo and D Fourie are rare gems at the breakdown…..add Bissy and we really competetive there….dont have to stand back for anyone….
Seems Heyneke is impressed with Flo….so not all doom and gloom to be fair….but I would like quality back up
10 Nov 2012, 11:08 am
@nama1-906: Well said.LOL
In our village there is an ex journalist who spent 7 years
in the Kalahari living with the KHOE people.Not many whiites
realise that the KHOI and the SAN are 2 seperate nations.
She tells me that the original language N\\NU is now only spoken
by a handful of people,of which she is one also very interesting
on the German/Herero genoc ide in 1908.
She has put me onto a Prof.Hendrik Witbooi at Windhoek Uni.
Maybe I am assuming too much from your name,and this post
will confuse you.Regards
10 Nov 2012, 11:13 am
@ryecatcher-916: Other people to speak to are Karim Sadr (Wits) and Andy Smith (UCT). She is of course entirely right.
10 Nov 2012, 11:19 am
Greetings good people. (and a massive FU to HG and ET).
Full of postivity folk?
Ready for a Bok rumbling
Sheez Meyer makes my ulcer bleed, but I want the Boks to perform well today. Honestly hope all this talk of a “very weak” Irish team hasn’t lodged itself in the Bok group.
A dodgy start to this EOYT, and my word the demons will be vicious.
Loose trio to rock.
Front row to rock.
2nd Row might rock…..
Lambie to possibly rock….
The rest? Fucknows.
10 Nov 2012, 11:21 am
@mikeybrass-917: Thank you very
much.
10 Nov 2012, 11:22 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-918: Good morning to you good lady.
And to Dawn
10 Nov 2012, 11:27 am
@ryecatcher-920: Morning
10 Nov 2012, 11:29 am
all fit and strong a bok 32 man squad for 2013 could be a sight to behold….if HM just gets his selection act together…
15 Kirchner….Taute
11 Habana …Rhule
12 F Steyn….Serfontein
13 JDJ…JF
14 JPP…Aplon
10 JG ….P Lambie….E Jantjes
9 RP….J Vermaak
8 Vermeulen …Kanko
7 S Burger….W Alberts
6Flo…Brussow….
5 A Bekker …J Kruger
4 etsebeth….Flippie
3 Mujati…Jannie Dup
2 Bissy …S Brits….D Fourie…
1 Beast …Guthro
10 Nov 2012, 11:31 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-918: Hi…I think the Boks will come out snorting fire….just praying the weather is better than that in Brisbane…
10 Nov 2012, 11:36 am
Good morning from a cold and rainy Dublin.A few Saffa supporters walking around in the city centre.Saffa flags flying proudly at pubs and bars.All we need now is a victory!!Go Boks!!!!
10 Nov 2012, 11:37 am
@grant10-923: I have no doubt they are going to come out snorting. We have seen them do it a few times this year. This time round, it would be nice to see them go the distance.
Nothing less than a pretty comfy win IMHO (10 points +, even if the weather isn’t tasty), will be acceptable.
I just hope Pienaar hasn’t been instructed to be the “playmaking” man, in order to ‘protect’ Lambie.
Lambie needs to be the playmaker today…..and I reckon he’ll play the percentages well.
10 Nov 2012, 11:38 am
@wnbb-924: Great!!!!! You going to be at the game? Weather going to get worse? Or stay the same?
10 Nov 2012, 11:41 am
@wnbb-924: enjoy it….would love to be there!
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-925: Yes, good point, and a valid concern…..Lambie must run the show, he seems to enjoy the responsibility and his inherent DNA is linked to look for space and opportunity as opposed to M Steyns kick mentality….
If weather is okay, we must give it some air and have a go….
10 Nov 2012, 11:42 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-926: No.Will be watching at a pub in the Temple Bar area of the city.Weather will be around 5 degrees at ko.Hopefully it will be dry,but it will be cold.
10 Nov 2012, 11:53 am
@grant10-927: Indeed! The way I see it, is that just because Meyer is starting Lambie, doesn’t mean he ‘trusts’ Lambie to ‘run the game’.
And one thing about Lambie, he ain’t the type of 10 who is able (IMHO) to play according to a signed and sealed gameplan. I reckon that’s where he might struggle.
So let’s hope, pray and light candles if we have to, that Meyer has given him the freedom of the city.
10 Nov 2012, 12:02 pm
@wnbb-928: Hope you enjoy it, you should try and wrangle a ticket out of somebody!
10 Nov 2012, 12:03 pm
if Boks can’t put 30 past this 2nd rate Irish outfit then they not in the ball park
Time they stepped out of the shadows of indiscriminate discrimination
Boks first team
Taute / A. Coetsee
JPP, De Jongh, Serfontein, Habana,
Goosen, Hougaard
Vermeulen, Alberts, Louw
Etsebeth, Elstadt
JdP / Mujati, Bismark, Steenkamp
Beast, Fourie, Cilliers, Psdt, (Coetsee / Kolisi / A.Botha), Groom, (Jantjies / Lambie), (Aplon / Rhule)
10 Nov 2012, 12:04 pm
More blounulle coaches than players in this side….pity there weren’t less of either
10 Nov 2012, 12:04 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-929: Yeah….we get a good solid win today we may see HM being prepared to play a ‘ fringe ‘ squad against the Scots….I am hoping Jantjes will be trusted with a start to show his wares…..as well as a few others….also hope the Mujati issue can be sorted, would like to see him in the mix a sap…..a crucial area where boks have a real quality depth issue….imo
10 Nov 2012, 12:07 pm
forgot about Kolisi….
He may be the ace in the deck of cards next year …for sure !
10 Nov 2012, 12:12 pm
@grant10-933: IMHO, Jantjies should have been starting today, but I’m not unhappy with Lambie getting a run (I just though he might get it against Scotland). I’m still damn peeved with Morne on the bench though – either way.
I’ts almost a sign that Lambie is going to be pulled at the 1st sign of things not going according to ‘Meyer’s’ plan. And then for Meyer to come out and state that Morne is an ‘insurance policy’ – wtf type of confidence mist that give Lambie OR Elton for that matter?
If Morne WAS an insurance policy, he would be one of those fucking2randaday specials, that only pay out once in every 500 000 claims……
10 Nov 2012, 12:13 pm
Pienaar will control the game, if weather is tight you can expect the ‘traditional’ 10 man saffa game with the ball getting past Pienaar maybe 20% of the time
10 Nov 2012, 12:15 pm
@BrumbiesBoy-930: wrangle = wangle
10 Nov 2012, 12:17 pm
@grant10-933:
HM doesn’t have the luxury of playing fringe players at any stage right. Having said that, his run-on side today could’ve been slighty different.
But if the match today finishes with Taute at FB and JDJ at 13 and they both start next Sat, then I’ll be happy. With Elton on the bench instead of Morne.
One sub I am looking forward to is that of Schalk Brits – hope he gets at least 20 minutes if not more.
10 Nov 2012, 12:17 pm
You just need to read some of the threads on keo and you can see how easily wars are started.
The ego’s and vanitys of mankind are so destructive.
10 Nov 2012, 12:22 pm
@Treehugger-939:
You know what WAR is an acronym for:
WE ARE RIGHT.
Says it all, doesn’t it?
10 Nov 2012, 12:24 pm
Watching sky sports news UK…they just had a 15 minute insert on how England have to play against NZ, never mind their games against us or the Aussies??
And to think…we had no business losing to the AB’s this year…
Poor selections and tactics lost it for us…can’t really blame players efforts
10 Nov 2012, 12:24 pm
@skopdiekan-936: Sad thing is, that would be the worst possible thing for Lambie, and his future chances at 10.
Meyer has to remember that we are playing for RWC 2015 seedings as well. It would be a crime if the Boks ends up with a sh y te seeding, leaving the poor fellow who takes over from Meyer(when he is booted out or runs away….) to deal with an obstacle course of note come World Cup time
****OnlyjokingMeyerettesandfans****
10 Nov 2012, 12:30 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-935: M Steyn should be nowhere near the Bok squad…If HM is serious about taking our rugby to a new level he has to abandon that oke ….and imo the Bulls will need to make that call as well….@skopdiekan-936: Thats where the cancer sets in …..always choosing the 9 s to control the game….should have gone with a Vermaak type….with an instruction to clear as quickly as possible and snipe when it is on…
@I am a stormer-938: agree mate…also cant wait for at least a 25 to 30 min cameo from Scahlk Brits
10 Nov 2012, 12:30 pm
@fishdish-941:
you lose to the Ab’s most years this year was no different
10 Nov 2012, 12:31 pm
if Meyer instructs the players to play conservation kick first ask questions later garbage then he deserves to lose.
Same way we scored first in 2009 and should have romped home then FdP and Morne started kicking and ireland won the game. Dumbest rugby I ever seen is this garbage entrenched since Streauli White PdV and now Meyer.
White never won in Dublin, the only time PdV won was when Smit and FdP were absent in 2010
If Meyer wants to beat Ireland he better trust his backs but if he can’t and won’t then I expect Ireland to show him a little thing or two, just like they showed Smit and Pdv in 2009 when Smit tried the ‘traditional’ JW – FdP kick chase game, and lost .., again.
If JdV – Taute midfield don’t work and he chucks on De Jongh too late, then De Jongh gets labelled with the rest, or he brings on Steyn at any time he could blow it by poor replacement strategy.
10 Nov 2012, 12:36 pm
The selection of M Steyn on the bench is mind blowingly disastrous……..impact player M Steyn……what a bloody poor joke that is…
10 Nov 2012, 12:39 pm
@grant10-946:
All we can hope for is that Lambie has a blinder. And that Morne will be surplus to requirements.
10 Nov 2012, 12:41 pm
Grant do you ever support white players u racist f nut
10 Nov 2012, 12:42 pm
@NZINCHINA-944:
Yep, nicely put…”We lose to the AB’s”
There’s a certain self affliction reserved to that statement…
Very seldom do the AB’s really WIN against us…all down to our maladministration and player politics.
When we do hook it up though…curtains for you partner!
10 Nov 2012, 12:48 pm
@suffer_guy-948: I support South African players…..
I leave the racial categorising to nazis like you….
go wash your mouth out vuilgat.
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