Preview: Ireland vs Springboks
9 Nov 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner of the year-end tour Test in Dublin.
The optimism among Ireland supporters appeared to be high when I first arrived in Dublin last Saturday, but I’ve since sensed a steady shift to something bordering pessimism, in light of injuries to key and experienced players. They still hope for an Ireland victory, of course, but there is none of the strong belief that had accompanied their ambition in recent meetings at Lansdowne Road.
Ireland have won three of the last four Tests in the city. Experienced and respected men among their media contingent predict that dominance will end, despite acknowledging the Springboks’ own struggles with injuries and their poor form in 2012. I think they’re right, although any Springbok victory will not be accompanied by glowing praise of the beauty of their performance.
The forecast is for cold but clear conditions at kick-off, which will assist the attacking play of both sides, not that either team is likely to thrill in their own territory. The Boks won’t veer from the kick-chase method when in their half, and they will look to put Ireland’s receivers under pressure with committed chasers. The hosts have consistently pointed to the importance of putting their primary punters – Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie and Zane Kirchner – under pressure. I don’t foresee them achieving this, with the Springboks’ pack likely to be dominant and in so doing buying the aforementioned players time to set themselves and pick their spots (they’ll target fullback Simon Zebo), whether that be up-and-unders or kicks into space.
Pat Lambie’s tactical game showed improvements in the Currie Cup, but the pressure of Test matches is incomparable and he’ll be under close scrutiny in this regard. Lambie will also be thrust further into the spotlight if the Springboks succeed in pressuring Ireland into penalties in kickable positions. He has kicked superbly of late and needs to replicate that form on the international stage. Certainly if Ireland find their attacking groove they are capable of punishing the Springboks for infringements, with Jonathan Sexton and Ronan O’Gara among the most accurate Test goal-kickers in 2012.
If Lambie wobbles with the boot the Springboks have problems. Statistically no team in the world has spent more time in the opposition’s 22m than they have this year, yet the return in terms of tries scored has been desperately poor. They have consistently conceded penalties or made handling errors when on attack in this zone. There needs to be a dramatic reduction in both counts. The Springboks simply have to be more clinical.
The Bok pack has fronted well in set and general play, even against the All Blacks, who are widely regarded to be the strongest eight in the game. They’ll be too good for the Irish, who’ll miss Paul O’Connell’s physicality and leadership and Sean O’Brein’s industry and potency at the breakdown. If Francois Louw can impose himself at breakdown time (off the back of a good gainline contest) it will further compound Ireland’s attacking struggles. I think he will, with Declan Kidney’s team not possessing enough high calibre strike runners to boss the tackle and render Louw a non-factor.
Expect parity at scrum time, while the tourists will boss the lineouts, where their rolling maul will be a massive weapon.
Overall, Ireland will be a fierce competitor but not one with the quality to take advantage of a significantly weakened Springbok side.
VREDE’S CALL: Springboks by 10
1,019 Comments
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9 Nov 2012, 07:31 am
SA will arm wrestle this one but it will be scrappy with too much kicking .. shame Kearney is not playing as it may force some discipline on the k&c .. Lets see how Taute gets on, if he doesnt have a blinder there will be big cr*p.
Good luck Boks .. strange i am not getting a buzz this eoyt.
9 Nov 2012, 07:35 am
@Hurricane-47: Right, and almost lost the 2nd test? You AB supporter are sooooooo full of it at the moment. Enjoy it while it lasts.
9 Nov 2012, 07:38 am
@goodstuff-52:
Settle down. Cant we have a bit of fun on here or are you still a bit bitter?
So far its lasted a long time, so thank you
9 Nov 2012, 07:41 am
@Hurricane-49:
fear not my concerned friend, boks will beat a win out of the irish and english.
scots, if they are lucky, might sneak in under the radar, which will make it interesting to say the least.
as the saying goes, ‘once you hit bottom, the only way is up’ so i do think there is less pressure on the squad and the coach.
9 Nov 2012, 07:43 am
SA Best cricket team in the world … 2nd best rugby team in the world …
9 Nov 2012, 07:45 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-54:
you have hit bottom with your boring namecalling of the all blacks and kiwis and have decided to stay a bottom dweller and not go up…
you can only break down what is higher than you
9 Nov 2012, 07:49 am
Just read that Oregon Hoskins has requested a special concession from SA Govt to allow Boks to play Mujati…..Mujati apparently very keen to play for Boks….good news…that 3 spot worries me a lot…if anything happens to Jannie we in a bit of a bind imo
9 Nov 2012, 07:52 am
@grant10-57:
Hi grant10, where can i read this?
9 Nov 2012, 07:53 am
Cricket folk: What’s a good 1st innings score here you reckon?
Rugby folk: Meyer is still a thicko.
9 Nov 2012, 07:55 am
This Mujati issue is what confuses me about HM…..
IMO he can make some really good calls, [ Flo, Guthro....S Brits...eventually Lambie ]… and then mixes it up with some really strange decisions…..[ bRUSSOW, jdj, aplon...Jantjes ]….
Really confuses me that oke
9 Nov 2012, 07:56 am
@Jeez-58: SA Rugby Magazine press release…
9 Nov 2012, 07:58 am
@grant10-60: This begs the question: did SARU really try ‘that’ hard to sort this out last year when P Divvy wanted Mujati?
9 Nov 2012, 07:59 am
Oh dear.
You drop the Amlanator and you pay.
9 Nov 2012, 08:00 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-62:
Maybe Mujati wasn’t keen last year?
9 Nov 2012, 08:02 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-62: Yes….and the lack of professionalism worries me in this instance as well….surely this process should have been sorted out prior to the tour as well….
Our suits and admin need to up their games….this reactive style of Management is poor…
9 Nov 2012, 08:03 am
@gunther-64: I’m not having a go at Meyer here….I’m questioning SARU.
What’s a good score for us here? Thankiethegods Smith’s wicket hasn’t been as ‘expensive’ as it could have been…
9 Nov 2012, 08:04 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-59:
350 for the Gabba
9 Nov 2012, 08:04 am
kallis only 18 runs behind amla …. faced 70 balls less… King kallis best cricket the world has ever seen … test avg of 57 & bowling avg of 33 ….
9 Nov 2012, 08:04 am
Gunther….who is in Tahir place?
9 Nov 2012, 08:05 am
with this start anything under 500 will be dissapointing
9 Nov 2012, 08:06 am
kleingeld kleinveldt ….
9 Nov 2012, 08:06 am
PS. 350 is the average 1st innings score batting first at the Gabba, don’t have the stats but I know wy over 50% of teams batting first also win in Brisbane.
9 Nov 2012, 08:07 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-66:
I’m just saying you can’t do much if he isn’t keen.
Anyway the govt will tell them to fist themselves. They aren’t going to want any window dressing with another Zimbo.
They’ll want Meyer and SARU to feel the pain.
500 plus. Tomorrow will be the best day for batting.
Amla and Kallis will want to be there.
9 Nov 2012, 08:09 am
Who will win in Dublin on 10 November?
Springboks by 8-plus 43745% of all votes
Springboks by 1-7 34835% of all votes
Ireland by 1-7 14615% of all votes
Ireland by 8-plus 515% of all votes
Does this mean skop actually have 51 different log-in names on keo?
9 Nov 2012, 08:10 am
@grant10-69:
Kleinveldt.
Lyon is expensive with no Kallis we have nobody to fill the holding role.
Kleinveldt will be much better at that than Tahir.
Mind you if we can’t bowl them out on the final day we might regret that.
9 Nov 2012, 08:11 am
Head-to-Head – SA vs Aus
Played 85
SA won 19
Aus won 48
Draws 18
Not bragging, I seriously didn’t know the gap was so wide.
9 Nov 2012, 08:12 am
@Slartibartfast-67: @gunther-73: Ta
Jip. I’m also inclined to think we’ll want a 500 + in the 1st innings. Just makes things that much easier.
Bowlers will feel the pain tommorrow……
Helluva sad listening to Tony Greig talking about his cancer
9 Nov 2012, 08:14 am
Dark outside, rain around the corner. Probably won’t see 5pm…
9 Nov 2012, 08:14 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-77:
He’s a beaut.
9 Nov 2012, 08:15 am
Is Siddle wearing a sports bra?
9 Nov 2012, 08:17 am
gunther, actually he is a big do os, but no one deserves cancer. Strange how everyone is raving about kallis. If Amla was white, they would name Loftus after him. Sick white people.
9 Nov 2012, 08:18 am
Whatever they are paying those two poor knobbers to ride out at drinks with giant power are bottles strapped to their backs; it’s nowhere near enough.
9 Nov 2012, 08:22 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog poo-81: Whatthefuckisyourproblem?
9 Nov 2012, 08:22 am
Jackers also fighting cancer…
9 Nov 2012, 08:23 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog poo-81:
Shut up.
9 Nov 2012, 08:25 am
@Fern-56:
seriously, fern… seriously..?…
9 Nov 2012, 08:27 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog poo-81:
Sick white people? Where do you fall out the bus? Kallis is widely regarded as one of the top 2/3 cricket players EVER!
9 Nov 2012, 08:27 am
This vaunted Ozzie pace attack looking quite innocuous.
9 Nov 2012, 08:29 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-83:
Fark thought for a sec you suddenly lost it…
Anyway, got the following bit of info…
There are 25,114 people at the ground. A record attendance for a non-Ashes Test
Previous record was only around 21k.
9 Nov 2012, 08:32 am
@grant10-60: His best selections have been tight five selections and his loose forward selections have gotten better, but his backline selections are still poor.
9 Nov 2012, 08:32 am
@gunther-75: thanks….yeah, I am sceptical about not having Tahir….Hope Duminy can turn a few
9 Nov 2012, 08:37 am
@goodstuff-90: spot on mate
9 Nov 2012, 08:42 am
@Slartibartfast-89: Bloody good numbers those. Aussies streaming in to watch the No 1 Test team on the planet
I have to be honest, while I want us to smash a huge tally in the 1st innings, I’m rather keen to see our bowling attack unleashed on these fellas…although, the wicket seems rather sloooow….
9 Nov 2012, 08:44 am
@gunther-88:
“My grandmother could face these fellas….”
9 Nov 2012, 08:44 am
@goodstuff-90:
i think its more a question of the backline combinations from the available selections. lots of individualy good players in the teams his put out but either not working well as combinations or had poor games.
also a few games where the best players in some positions were not available.
springboks really need a scrumhalf.
9 Nov 2012, 08:44 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-94: Must add: they HAVE had their chances though…..
9 Nov 2012, 08:46 am
New ball due, so it’ll either be wickets or runs.
9 Nov 2012, 08:46 am
@BrumbiesBoy-76: why would you “brag”, you’re not an aussie
9 Nov 2012, 08:46 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-95: Bakkies, I think Heyneke and his assistants with their wayweirdandfuckedup backline selections have just shown what we all know to be true: when it comes to backline play they are clueless. All the focus is on the forwards…..
9 Nov 2012, 08:47 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-93:
And they getting a show put on by Kallis and Amla…
As for the wicket, lets see when we bowl. I remember against the poms where it looked like a carpet just to suddenly turning into a green mamba when we bowled
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