Preview: Ireland vs Springboks
9 Nov 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner of the year-end tour Test in Dublin.
The optimism among Ireland supporters appeared to be high when I first arrived in Dublin last Saturday, but I’ve since sensed a steady shift to something bordering pessimism, in light of injuries to key and experienced players. They still hope for an Ireland victory, of course, but there is none of the strong belief that had accompanied their ambition in recent meetings at Lansdowne Road.
Ireland have won three of the last four Tests in the city. Experienced and respected men among their media contingent predict that dominance will end, despite acknowledging the Springboks’ own struggles with injuries and their poor form in 2012. I think they’re right, although any Springbok victory will not be accompanied by glowing praise of the beauty of their performance.
The forecast is for cold but clear conditions at kick-off, which will assist the attacking play of both sides, not that either team is likely to thrill in their own territory. The Boks won’t veer from the kick-chase method when in their half, and they will look to put Ireland’s receivers under pressure with committed chasers. The hosts have consistently pointed to the importance of putting their primary punters – Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie and Zane Kirchner – under pressure. I don’t foresee them achieving this, with the Springboks’ pack likely to be dominant and in so doing buying the aforementioned players time to set themselves and pick their spots (they’ll target fullback Simon Zebo), whether that be up-and-unders or kicks into space.
Pat Lambie’s tactical game showed improvements in the Currie Cup, but the pressure of Test matches is incomparable and he’ll be under close scrutiny in this regard. Lambie will also be thrust further into the spotlight if the Springboks succeed in pressuring Ireland into penalties in kickable positions. He has kicked superbly of late and needs to replicate that form on the international stage. Certainly if Ireland find their attacking groove they are capable of punishing the Springboks for infringements, with Jonathan Sexton and Ronan O’Gara among the most accurate Test goal-kickers in 2012.
If Lambie wobbles with the boot the Springboks have problems. Statistically no team in the world has spent more time in the opposition’s 22m than they have this year, yet the return in terms of tries scored has been desperately poor. They have consistently conceded penalties or made handling errors when on attack in this zone. There needs to be a dramatic reduction in both counts. The Springboks simply have to be more clinical.
The Bok pack has fronted well in set and general play, even against the All Blacks, who are widely regarded to be the strongest eight in the game. They’ll be too good for the Irish, who’ll miss Paul O’Connell’s physicality and leadership and Sean O’Brein’s industry and potency at the breakdown. If Francois Louw can impose himself at breakdown time (off the back of a good gainline contest) it will further compound Ireland’s attacking struggles. I think he will, with Declan Kidney’s team not possessing enough high calibre strike runners to boss the tackle and render Louw a non-factor.
Expect parity at scrum time, while the tourists will boss the lineouts, where their rolling maul will be a massive weapon.
Overall, Ireland will be a fierce competitor but not one with the quality to take advantage of a significantly weakened Springbok side.
VREDE’S CALL: Springboks by 10
1,019 Comments
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10 Nov 2012, 12:51 pm
@I am a stormer-940: that’s quite clever.
10 Nov 2012, 12:51 pm
Grant jys die tipe ou wat sal rook in die kerk….
10 Nov 2012, 12:51 pm
@suffer_guy-948: He supports Luke
10 Nov 2012, 12:53 pm
@suffer_guy-952: En Skop steel die kollektegeld
10 Nov 2012, 12:56 pm
@fishdish-949:
don’t hold your breath
10 Nov 2012, 13:06 pm
@Treehugger-939:
yip, nicely put.
@fishdish-949:
agreed, but more correcty stated as; as a consequence of their cheating and our maladministration and player politics we lose games more than they WIN any against us.
10 Nov 2012, 13:25 pm
war is usually started be peanut brained little flesh devouring pipsqueaks who think they cleverer than they are, if humankind did not lust after flesh for sustainable existence war between men would not exist, same way as you do not find one herbivore dictating to another in nature so would humanity live in peace if flesh eating was not in their frame of dietary consciousness.
10 Nov 2012, 13:26 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-956:
yip you have the greatest depth, the most talent, the best players blah blah blah unfortunately you lose nearly as often as you win
10 Nov 2012, 13:29 pm
If the Paddies take you again in Dublin does meyer drop below a 30% win record? surely he’s gone if he doesnt go 3 from 3 ?
10 Nov 2012, 13:31 pm
does skop ever desist from posting absolutely mind numbingly stupid, boring and non-sensical posts?
Does the guy ever post anything credible and sane?
10 Nov 2012, 13:41 pm
@NZINCHINA-958:
thems the facts china,
you cheat to win
and we s.crew ourselves to lose
deal with it
10 Nov 2012, 13:44 pm
@fishdish-949:
I think you are a bit off there.
In fact smacks of arrogance.
What about the Ozzies and the french….both these teams have had the wood over you guys over the last few games. Surely you have to give the opposition a bit of respect and admit that the boks are not all what you think they are.
10 Nov 2012, 13:45 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-961:
Facts are Boks are average and you are insane.
10 Nov 2012, 13:46 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-961: don’t you ever grow weary of accusing the kiwis of cheating? You’re like a stuck record.
Your posts are boring, repetitive, monotonous, and reveal an innate insecurity.
10 Nov 2012, 13:48 pm
@skopdiekan-957: I used to lust after
flesh.Carnally.
10 Nov 2012, 13:50 pm
@ryecatcher-965: Going to be a long day.
Got up early for cricket.Think I will go to bed now.
10 Nov 2012, 13:51 pm
well try refute it
If you go to the pick and pay check out counter on a Saturday morning and check what comes through there in the average human shopping trolley, especially if there is a rugby game or three being shown on the telly that afternoon.. you will find about 20 frozen chickens, 5 cases of beer, 6 bottles of wine, maybe a carton or two of klipdrift brandy, 10 packs of boerewors, 15 packs of lamb chops or 10 packs of beef steak rumps all ready for the big binge where man reckons he is about to ‘enjoy’ himself filling up with fear laden death devouring carnage, and then he wonders why the hell there is a planet torn to shreds by avarice, fear, hate, revenge and war…
Goes with the territory, chuck all your domination desiring lustful hateful revengeful warlike intent, and what do you have by automatic repercussion, a planet living in peace, continue the senseless acts of killing and flesh and blood lusting deliriousness and war is an automatic by product of your war mongering lifestyle and psyche.
10 Nov 2012, 13:53 pm
@Liewe Luiperd-964:
This year alone he has accused the teams beloe of cheating.
NZ ( of course)
Ozzies
Argentina
Chiefs
Sharks
And probably more but you get the idea.
10 Nov 2012, 13:57 pm
@ryecatcher-965: that is also a by product of the human conditioned psyche, most species mate for the primary purpose to produce offspring and perpetuate the survival of the species, humans tend to do it purely for seeking pleasure, which has a direct resultant repercussion, as much pleasure we seek to inculcate the equal and opposite reaction of pain is the direct consequence result. Hence overpopulation, hunger, war, Aids, misery, starvation, poverty, deficiency etc.
If man understood the principles of natural equilibrium none of these repercussions of devastation and deprivation would ensue.
10 Nov 2012, 13:59 pm
@Hurricane-968:
OH and i forgot the refs.
Probably about 4-5 refs cheated this year as well.
10 Nov 2012, 14:00 pm
@NZINCHINA-958: Yes there is some truth in that. However, in my opinion, the Boks are not a mediocre team, never have been and never will be. They do however under-perform and that is exactly the case right now. If an example is required, one need look no further than the recent Test in Dunedin. They completely outplayed the AB’s and yet lost the Test. That is not the act of a mediocre team but they most certainly did under-perform, because they still managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory(as usual).
10 Nov 2012, 14:02 pm
@Hurricane-963:
does it hurt to admit you are a cheat?
@Liewe Luiperd-964:
and you set the world of blogging alight, do you….
10 Nov 2012, 14:03 pm
Boks problem is up there in the top two inches as Fitzy once so aptly and accurately implied..
Fix that little itsy weeny problem and Boks should be almost invincible or at least on par but mainly better than most their international counterparts.
10 Nov 2012, 14:04 pm
@Hurricane-968: well I wouldn’t take it too seriously Hurri. Boet, he’s just trying to wind you guys up methinks. Seems to be working pretty well if I’m right.
10 Nov 2012, 14:07 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-972: c’mon man what is it with this cheating fetish, if you so fixated on who is cheating and who is not you are missing the entire object of the exercise with this dominate at all costs escapade called rugby …if you wanna stay within the framework of competition then you have to adapt and adopt to what transpires on the field of play, which is win within the parameters of what is allowed and what is not, that is how the AB’s do it, how come you so thick you still can’t get to grips with what to do to win?
10 Nov 2012, 14:07 pm
@skopdiekan-973: middag Skop. New nic I see. You I think you’re right. But I think it runs a little deeper than that. Our local coaches are responsible. Maybe it’s ingrained. The Kiwi’s coaches on average are light years ahead of ours. Lets face facts. Coaches dictate how teams play. Not individual players. After-all it is a team game first and individual brilliance(read: those top two inches you refer to) second.
10 Nov 2012, 14:08 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-972:
Ohhh poor Bakkies,crying the cheating card again.
Why dont you start early and blame the ref and accuse Ireland of cheating.
Loser.
10 Nov 2012, 14:09 pm
@TASSIES-974:
lol
Tassie, this guy seems to think every thing he says is the truth.
He is not trying to wind anyone up….he thinks all teams cheat bar the ones he supports.
10 Nov 2012, 14:11 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-972:
Seems alot of people are getting a bit tired of your same rant.
Time to give it a rest.
10 Nov 2012, 14:12 pm
@TASSIES-976: Howdy Oom Tas – nic changes round here out of simple necessity,
I think Fitzy was referring primarily to the top two inches in the coaching dept, which filters through to the same top two inches being dismally absent on the field of play..
Its not the players at fault in our game.. it is primarily and categorically entrenched by stupid thick brainless coaching and strategy and man management techniques.
10 Nov 2012, 14:16 pm
@Hurricane-962:
To this day you lament over certain decisions made in your game against France in 2007…not much respect given there if you ask me
10 Nov 2012, 14:19 pm
@skopdiekan-975:
no thanks skop, what they do is reflective of who they are. this is not what i want the boks to be, ever. we are the best because we go out onto the field and we beat the rest, and we do it hard but fair.
@Hurricane-979:
still cant bring yourself to say it…
10 Nov 2012, 14:22 pm
@fishdish-981:
Strange, i dont recall seeing anything about france 2007 on here, especially from me.
What are you trying to do?
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-982:
People are sick of your rubbish. Cant you see this?
10 Nov 2012, 14:25 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-982:
“we are the best because we go out onto the field and we beat the rest”
Not including France or Ozzie and leceister and saracens and scotland…… yeah you beat the rest sometimes.
10 Nov 2012, 14:30 pm
@skopdiekan-980:
Skop,
It is not the coach who misses tackles.
It is not the coach who butchers a pass with the try line 2m away.
It is not the coach who fails to find touch when clearing.
It is not the coach who misses kicks at goal.
That is why that walkie-talkie bounces around the coaching booth.
It is now time for the players to stand and deliver. They have all bought into HM’s philosophy of “no more excuses.”
The time is now.
10 Nov 2012, 14:31 pm
@Hurricane-983:
when you reach a point where you can admit it to yourself, it get easier.
@Hurricane-984:
of course there have been a few legitimate games which the boks have lost, dont be a tool.
take oz off that list though.
10 Nov 2012, 14:34 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-986:
Oz beats you alot, why take them off the list?
10 Nov 2012, 14:35 pm
Meyer better win all three matches or he should be bloody toast.
Hougaard still on the wing? WTF? Steyn on the bench and no JdJ at centre? His backline selections are utter ****.
10 Nov 2012, 14:38 pm
CJ is starting at loosehead. The Beast is out injured.
10 Nov 2012, 14:39 pm
@I am a stormer-985: Its the coach who sets the platform and the mental resolve and the dictation of the game plan.. it is the coach who drives the bus.. if the coach puts one foot wrong the entire vehicle of opportunity is compromised.. not by the players.. by the coach who orchestrates the symphony from the shelter of his box.
The players are an extension of the coach.. coach selects them, coach dictates game plan, coach sets combinations and strategy, coach drives the game and conducts the war.. team loses its the coach at fault, not the players.. they just do or die and never to ask the reason why.
10 Nov 2012, 14:39 pm
@mikeybrass-988:
I said somewhere else that I hope the match finishes with Taute at 15 and JDJ at 13. With Elton on the bench and not M Steyn. And Hougaard needs a big game. There are others like Mvovo, Rhule and Mapoe all wanting his spot.
And the rest of the tour continues like that.
10 Nov 2012, 14:40 pm
@I am a stormer-985:
We will know it is the end of the road for HM the day you start turning against him.
Since that breakfast you’ve been his most ardent supporter.
10 Nov 2012, 14:42 pm
@skopdiekan-969: Good pos t
10 Nov 2012, 14:43 pm
@skopdiekan-990:
Rugby is not a complicated game.
Play the game in the opposition half of the field and not your own.
Easy as.
10 Nov 2012, 14:46 pm
@I am a stormer-985: Great Pos t
10 Nov 2012, 14:48 pm
@ryecatcher-993:
Hi rye.
I was also up early hoping to see either Kallis or Amla get to their 100.
Very dissapointing. If it dosen’t rain, we need to bat to 1 hour before close and send them in and at least get 2 or 3 wickets.
10 Nov 2012, 14:50 pm
@Hurricane-987:
they play your type of game too often against us.
10 Nov 2012, 14:50 pm
998
10 Nov 2012, 14:50 pm
@Jeraldjay-996: Hello JJ.Mistake to not pick Tahir
10 Nov 2012, 14:51 pm
@Jeraldjay-992:
LOL
I’m not a HM apologist. It might sound like it. The guy has a tremendous love of Bok rugby. He literally dies in that coaching box every match.
I have also queried and become frustrated at certain selections. Slowly but surely I could see them unfold in the right direction.
At that breakfast he rated Vermeulen and didn’t rate Spies. Kanko was off to Japan.
He rates Hougaard highly and will play him anywhere even at 13.
He said Taute WILL be a Bok. But I didn’t expect it at 13.
But HM does need 3 out of 3. No more excuses. His words, not mine.
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