Preview: Ireland vs Springboks
9 Nov 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner of the year-end tour Test in Dublin.
The optimism among Ireland supporters appeared to be high when I first arrived in Dublin last Saturday, but I’ve since sensed a steady shift to something bordering pessimism, in light of injuries to key and experienced players. They still hope for an Ireland victory, of course, but there is none of the strong belief that had accompanied their ambition in recent meetings at Lansdowne Road.
Ireland have won three of the last four Tests in the city. Experienced and respected men among their media contingent predict that dominance will end, despite acknowledging the Springboks’ own struggles with injuries and their poor form in 2012. I think they’re right, although any Springbok victory will not be accompanied by glowing praise of the beauty of their performance.
The forecast is for cold but clear conditions at kick-off, which will assist the attacking play of both sides, not that either team is likely to thrill in their own territory. The Boks won’t veer from the kick-chase method when in their half, and they will look to put Ireland’s receivers under pressure with committed chasers. The hosts have consistently pointed to the importance of putting their primary punters – Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie and Zane Kirchner – under pressure. I don’t foresee them achieving this, with the Springboks’ pack likely to be dominant and in so doing buying the aforementioned players time to set themselves and pick their spots (they’ll target fullback Simon Zebo), whether that be up-and-unders or kicks into space.
Pat Lambie’s tactical game showed improvements in the Currie Cup, but the pressure of Test matches is incomparable and he’ll be under close scrutiny in this regard. Lambie will also be thrust further into the spotlight if the Springboks succeed in pressuring Ireland into penalties in kickable positions. He has kicked superbly of late and needs to replicate that form on the international stage. Certainly if Ireland find their attacking groove they are capable of punishing the Springboks for infringements, with Jonathan Sexton and Ronan O’Gara among the most accurate Test goal-kickers in 2012.
If Lambie wobbles with the boot the Springboks have problems. Statistically no team in the world has spent more time in the opposition’s 22m than they have this year, yet the return in terms of tries scored has been desperately poor. They have consistently conceded penalties or made handling errors when on attack in this zone. There needs to be a dramatic reduction in both counts. The Springboks simply have to be more clinical.
The Bok pack has fronted well in set and general play, even against the All Blacks, who are widely regarded to be the strongest eight in the game. They’ll be too good for the Irish, who’ll miss Paul O’Connell’s physicality and leadership and Sean O’Brein’s industry and potency at the breakdown. If Francois Louw can impose himself at breakdown time (off the back of a good gainline contest) it will further compound Ireland’s attacking struggles. I think he will, with Declan Kidney’s team not possessing enough high calibre strike runners to boss the tackle and render Louw a non-factor.
Expect parity at scrum time, while the tourists will boss the lineouts, where their rolling maul will be a massive weapon.
Overall, Ireland will be a fierce competitor but not one with the quality to take advantage of a significantly weakened Springbok side.
VREDE’S CALL: Springboks by 10
1,019 Comments
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9 Nov 2012, 08:47 am
Unless of course Oz decides not to waste it because of the light.
9 Nov 2012, 08:48 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-94:
With a stick of rhubarb.
9 Nov 2012, 08:49 am
Here we go. Last 10 overs, quickies up.
Critical phase of the game, if our guys can weather this and come out at the end of the day with only 2 wickets down, we will be set to dominate day 2.
Bring it on!
9 Nov 2012, 08:50 am
@grant10-57: nice one Regan!
9 Nov 2012, 08:51 am
@stormersboy-103:
I wonder if the Aussies will sneakily take the new ball and hope to get a wicket before there’s a light appeal?
9 Nov 2012, 08:54 am
New ball up.
9 Nov 2012, 08:55 am
@David-105: I thought this might happen lol.
New ball taken but light and stumps.
So it starts tomorrow,
9 Nov 2012, 08:56 am
didn’t mujati’s father invade a few farms in Zim? also made up that “SA players called me a ******” story? this guy is bad news
9 Nov 2012, 08:56 am
Are they done?
Just walked off field?
9 Nov 2012, 08:56 am
@gunther-102:
And we know how that ended….
9 Nov 2012, 08:57 am
@suffer_guy-108:
Ag please man dont start your kuk early in the morning
9 Nov 2012, 08:57 am
Kallis jys my allis
9 Nov 2012, 08:57 am
@David-105:
No…
4.55 pm Clarke wanted to take the new ball but once he indicated his intention, the umpires decided the light wasn’t good enough to continue. Off go the players. Five minutes left for the scheduled close and a 30 minute extension is available to bowl the remaining eight overs, but that won’t be possible now, by the looks of it.
9 Nov 2012, 08:59 am
Stupid time zones
9 Nov 2012, 09:01 am
@Slartibartfast-113: lol espn cricinfo?
9 Nov 2012, 09:02 am
cut and paste cricinfo
9 Nov 2012, 09:02 am
The Mooj is apparently keen on playing for the Boks and Heyneke has been talking to him, the Ministry has asked SARU to “motivate” that there aren’t better tightheads in SA than the Mooj.
9 Nov 2012, 09:02 am
@suffer_guy-112: Must be tough for you to swallow hey? All these ‘players of colour’ in the Proteas setup smashing ALL comers, Amla the Great etc etc?
You must be torn, bewildered, confused….not sure whether to ******* or fuckoff?
9 Nov 2012, 09:03 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-118: ** J-a-c-k-o-f-f**
9 Nov 2012, 09:03 am
@Slartibartfast-113:
You also following Cricinfo?
9 Nov 2012, 09:03 am
Dawn wag tot hy try om jou huis te steel
9 Nov 2012, 09:05 am
@suffer_guy-55:
3rd best rugby team
9 Nov 2012, 09:05 am
Ozzies will be very happy to get off the park.
9 Nov 2012, 09:06 am
@Transformation-117:
Are there?
9 Nov 2012, 09:07 am
This from Jonathan Mokuena on John Mitchell from Rugby 365:
Cape Town – Former South African Sevens captain Jonathan Mokuena says the Lions will make the “biggest mistake” in the history of South African rugby” if they allow John Mitchell back as coach.
Suspended coach Mitchell is set to return as coach of the embattled union after he was found not guilty of all complaints of misconduct levelled against him.
The Lions on Thursday confirmed to the Associated Press that Mitchell will meet with management on Friday “to discuss the way forward”.
Loose forward Mokuena, who had a brief spell under Mitchell at the Lions from 2010-2011, feels caretaker coach Johann Ackermann is a better option.
According to the Rugby 365 website he called the Kiwi a “demon” who treats players like “animals”.
“We (the players) are humans, not animals. We are adults. You don’t curse and swear adults who are married and already have children – that is not how you treat people.
“Johan Ackermann is a great person and he knows how to work with adults.”
Although Mokuena left the Lions before their successful Currie Cup campaign in 2011, he confirmed that he had experienced the same unpleasantness that resulted in misconduct charges being laid against Mitchell by the players.
“I wasn’t part of the current complaints against him. By then I had already returned to Griquas.
“The environment for me just wasn’t right.
“Obviously he didn’t rate me as a player, but I experienced this all during my time at the Lions.”
9 Nov 2012, 09:07 am
Sharks pisgree, is kallis black?
9 Nov 2012, 09:09 am
@gunther-123: Ja they were going to just leak runs if they kept it up with the old ball and the part timers.
Best to start over in the morning. Only 255 on the board, not over yet by a long way.
9 Nov 2012, 09:12 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-99:
ag you know hondkossharkie, its so easy to say things like heyneke makes wierd backline selections and is clueless about backline play. dont let the facts get in the way of a good story.
let us be clear, THE ONLY NEWLY CAPPED BACKLINE PLAYERS PICKED BY MEYER AND HIS ASSISTANTS HAVE BEEN:
jj engelbrecht
johan goosen
jaco taute
elton jantjes
now, we can agree that two of those four are ‘not popular’ in cape town, no problem. the other two are well loved, hey.
the rest of HIS backline players are players who have been around and in the bok squad setup since the time of pdivy and some of them even since the time of white.
tell me, has goosen and jantjes been poor selections for you? or have his selection of divvy and white’s players been poor too..?..
9 Nov 2012, 09:14 am
The greatest sportsman in the history of Bananaland showing his class again.
How could Mickey actually think that his susceptible to verbal abuse.
I don’t know much about the muslim faith but what I do is that on the cricket field when you try and mess with their minds (the good players) they come back at you hard.
9 Nov 2012, 09:16 am
@Transformation-98: Maybe not, but in your case I’m prepared to rub it in nevertheless so here goes: “Played 85, Won 48″ – Take that, Bruce!
9 Nov 2012, 09:16 am
@stormersboy-125:
BOOM!
and there you have it.
for me personally, i believe in hard love.
9 Nov 2012, 09:16 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-99: “I think Heyneke and his assistants with their wayweirdandfuckedup backline selections have just shown what we all know to be true: when it comes to backline play they are clueless. All the focus is on the forwards”
why are you so disrespectful? you need to check yoself missy. johan “kitch christie” van graan is a coaching phenomenon!
“Johann has been the most important coach at the Bulls since 2008,” wrote Fourie du Preez. “He has the respect of all the players and he has been influential in most of our lives, especially mine.”
9 Nov 2012, 09:17 am
@stormersboy-127:
Happy to be where we are though.
2 down on day two best batting day of the test.
We mustn’t take our foot off a drowning man’s head here.
500 plus.
Thangyaverymuch.
9 Nov 2012, 09:18 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-131:
Keep your hard love to yourself m
9 Nov 2012, 09:20 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-131: Do you now??
9 Nov 2012, 09:21 am
@BrumbiesBoy-130: what pleasure do you derive? that’s like watching a s.extape with your sister in it and jerking off to it…
you’re a whackjob Imi
9 Nov 2012, 09:23 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-128: Bakkies, Yay or nay. Meyer doesn’t seem to be a backline orientated in terms of overall gameplan and blueprint.
Yay or nay?
I think it’s a weakness.
@Transformation-132: “Kitch” van Graan? ohdearfuckno. I guess if Fourie du Preez says he is a rugbycoachgod he must be……
9 Nov 2012, 09:23 am
@Transformation-132:
why dont you come back back when your kings have a title, transie.
your lips are cheap.
9 Nov 2012, 09:23 am
@gunther-124: Broken Harris, Werner Kruger?
9 Nov 2012, 09:25 am
@gunther-133: Yes, we need to kick on.
Fuckem.
9 Nov 2012, 09:26 am
@gunther-134:
@stormersboy-135:
hehehe
lost in translation perhaps.
i mean strict teaching and training.
9 Nov 2012, 09:27 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-131: A player who spent the S15 season this year under Mitchell (player has since gone) told someone I know (rather well) that John Mitchell was no worse than said ‘players’ Varsity Cup coach……
There are always going to be players who thrive under your ‘hard love’ regime…..BUT: there will always be players who need a ‘softer love’ regime to thrive.
The trick for ANY coach is working out WHAT player, needs WHAT type of ‘love’ regime and then adapting to this.
9 Nov 2012, 09:28 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-142: So it’s either “Guns” OR “Roses”, can never be both old Bakkies sweet child of mine.
9 Nov 2012, 09:32 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-137:
i believe he would do well to contract in a few specialist consultants in the same way he did at the bulls.
but ultimately, it all starts up front. fail there and you fail everywhere.
9 Nov 2012, 09:33 am
11 afrikaans speaking players in the starting line up … oooh die brannas en coke gan lekker wees more aand saam die braai!
9 Nov 2012, 09:33 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-141: In principle i have no problem with that, except we seem to have a trend here with Mitchell.
Plenty of coaches are strict and stern, think Mallet and his infamous half-time rants (which occasionally worked, remember our great second half comeback in the tri nations those years ago) but Mitchell doesn’t seem to be able to get away with it without starting a riot.
9 Nov 2012, 09:37 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-138: steady bakkies, calm down, we got titles aplenty
9 Nov 2012, 09:44 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-142:
yes, i suppose that is the best way these days. i accept the times change but i would prefer hard love, this would be be the best way to weed the weak ones out i feel.
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-143:
where is the logic in stopping ourselvves from doing what’s best for ourselves..?
i understand the world less and less as time goes on.
@stormersboy-146:
exaclty!
i like that. if kitch christie told a player he needed to do something, that player would do it or farking die trying.
@Transformation-147:
real titles you chancer!
not plascon paint tins
9 Nov 2012, 09:46 am
@stormersboy-146: Mitchell, quite possibly, needs a little assistance with the ‘head work’. He is an outstanding coach, but a hard as nails rugby man…..
You will probably find that HE (when he still played) responded positively to the old rugby school of hard knocks, discipline and ‘cowboys don’t cry’ attitude of his coaches at the time.
His problem is, what happened to motivate him when he played, doesn’t necessarily work for the next player….or group of players.
He just needs someone to assist him in identifying the ‘individual’ players he is working withs personal pressure points and motivators. Some react positively to stress, others don’t. Some need ego stroking, others need a kick up the @ ss; whilst others need nothing at all….
I read that when he first got the Lions job, he tried to attend prayer meetings with his players in order to understand them better etc. So on some level he possibly realises he might have a problem with this?
9 Nov 2012, 09:47 am
@suffer_guy-145: Did you see the goal Janine “Booth” van Wyk scored for Banyana Banyana against Nigeria in the semi-finals of the African Championships?
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