Preview: Ireland vs Springboks
9 Nov 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner of the year-end tour Test in Dublin.
The optimism among Ireland supporters appeared to be high when I first arrived in Dublin last Saturday, but I’ve since sensed a steady shift to something bordering pessimism, in light of injuries to key and experienced players. They still hope for an Ireland victory, of course, but there is none of the strong belief that had accompanied their ambition in recent meetings at Lansdowne Road.
Ireland have won three of the last four Tests in the city. Experienced and respected men among their media contingent predict that dominance will end, despite acknowledging the Springboks’ own struggles with injuries and their poor form in 2012. I think they’re right, although any Springbok victory will not be accompanied by glowing praise of the beauty of their performance.
The forecast is for cold but clear conditions at kick-off, which will assist the attacking play of both sides, not that either team is likely to thrill in their own territory. The Boks won’t veer from the kick-chase method when in their half, and they will look to put Ireland’s receivers under pressure with committed chasers. The hosts have consistently pointed to the importance of putting their primary punters – Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie and Zane Kirchner – under pressure. I don’t foresee them achieving this, with the Springboks’ pack likely to be dominant and in so doing buying the aforementioned players time to set themselves and pick their spots (they’ll target fullback Simon Zebo), whether that be up-and-unders or kicks into space.
Pat Lambie’s tactical game showed improvements in the Currie Cup, but the pressure of Test matches is incomparable and he’ll be under close scrutiny in this regard. Lambie will also be thrust further into the spotlight if the Springboks succeed in pressuring Ireland into penalties in kickable positions. He has kicked superbly of late and needs to replicate that form on the international stage. Certainly if Ireland find their attacking groove they are capable of punishing the Springboks for infringements, with Jonathan Sexton and Ronan O’Gara among the most accurate Test goal-kickers in 2012.
If Lambie wobbles with the boot the Springboks have problems. Statistically no team in the world has spent more time in the opposition’s 22m than they have this year, yet the return in terms of tries scored has been desperately poor. They have consistently conceded penalties or made handling errors when on attack in this zone. There needs to be a dramatic reduction in both counts. The Springboks simply have to be more clinical.
The Bok pack has fronted well in set and general play, even against the All Blacks, who are widely regarded to be the strongest eight in the game. They’ll be too good for the Irish, who’ll miss Paul O’Connell’s physicality and leadership and Sean O’Brein’s industry and potency at the breakdown. If Francois Louw can impose himself at breakdown time (off the back of a good gainline contest) it will further compound Ireland’s attacking struggles. I think he will, with Declan Kidney’s team not possessing enough high calibre strike runners to boss the tackle and render Louw a non-factor.
Expect parity at scrum time, while the tourists will boss the lineouts, where their rolling maul will be a massive weapon.
Overall, Ireland will be a fierce competitor but not one with the quality to take advantage of a significantly weakened Springbok side.
VREDE’S CALL: Springboks by 10
1,019 Comments
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9 Nov 2012, 13:53 pm
@The Rangerman-391:
oh… okay…
thanks man… first time ever on keo that wp has won something… so very chuffed with the team…
but fact is it could have very easily gone the other way and the sharks could’ve won… same thing the week before… lions could just as easily have won… so we got the results but the teams all very close and did all their supporters proud…
enjoy the trip…!!
9 Nov 2012, 13:54 pm
Youtube Mike Tysons knockouts……that kat had a way of humiliating folk the way they went down, it is like his punch had an extra jolt of real electricity, people would wriggle around the ropes like clowns after being hit down
Just some usless of the topic info
9 Nov 2012, 13:54 pm
@Rockn Rolla-402:
stay focussed
9 Nov 2012, 13:55 pm
@cane-399:
hehehe…
shot bud…!
if only it was…!!
9 Nov 2012, 13:56 pm
@Rockn Rolla-402: He was quick to check that they were OK though, espoecially in his early fights before Don King got hold of him he was one of the best winners in boxing I’ve seen. Rushing over to congratulate and compliment the loser on a good fight.
Quite out of character with the man in later life.
9 Nov 2012, 13:57 pm
@Nikita-403: Strong is the new skinny sweetie.
Diversity is where it’s at,
9 Nov 2012, 13:57 pm
@gunther-375:
we all have our faults hey…
puma fewer than most of us…
9 Nov 2012, 13:57 pm
@wnbb-353:
I entirely agree. They have nothing to lose and are seriously up for the game, in spite of enforced injury changes. Nobody is more up for it than Bloem’s R. Strauss. The Irish, and the Leinstermen particularly love him, and he’s been a star through the last 2no. HC campaigns. He’s certainly not the stereotypical ‘MAAK-VAS’ South African tight-forward!!!! For some, these enforced changes have enabled a potential break-out from the narrow, conservative approach dictated by Declan Kidney. Dont forget the Gert Smal factor either.
SA must target the Irish tight scrum – a major weakness, particularly off the bench (Kilcoyne = hopeless & Bent = just flown in from Taranaki), but then, I look at the Bok bench and shake my head. Heinke and BJ have been enormously destructive scrummagers here in Ireland the past seasons. Please don’t hold up CJ, he became a bit of a laughing stock here in Leinster those 2 seasons (always injured and no impact scrumming).
SA also must target Irish line-out. D. Ryan = utility lock / backrow & M.McCarthy = scrumming, mauling, physicality type lock. R. Strauss = as impressive as he has been with high intensity, pacy ball carrying, his weakness is line-out throwing.
I hold thumbs. SA only won 1 of 4 since 2001. Its been painful.
re. R. Strauss, the following is an Irish perspective, as reported in the Times this morning —
STRAUSS ON LAST LEG OF JOURNEY
By Ruaidhri O’Connor —– Friday November 09 2012
AT Grey College in Bloemfontein, they nail the names of their former students who go on to be Springboks above the numbered seats in the locker room.
When Richardt Strauss was head boy at the famed rugby academy in 2004, he took his seat under the names of Herman van Broekhuizen, Theuns Stofberg, Ruben Kruger, Gerrie Britz and Naka Drotske — all former flankers who left the school and went on to represent South Africa.
As a Junior Springbok himself, he fully expected to emulate them. But tomorrow, when he becomes a senior international rugby player at the age of 26, he won’t sing ‘Nkosi Sikelel iAfrika’ and, when the whistle goes, he will throw himself at everything moving in dark green.
Before he joined the academy at local Super Rugby franchise Cheetahs and became a hooker, Strauss formed part of a formidable back-row with fetcher Heinrich Brussow and No 8 Deon Stegmann — both of whom went on to play for South Africa.
Strauss will finally join the Test ranks at the Aviva, but until he left for Leinster in 2009, he couldn’t have imagined his international debut would come against the land of his birth.
SPECIAL
“All three of those loose forwards in our senior team became senior internationals, it is something special,” head of rugby at Grey, Dries van der Wal, told the Irish Independent.
“From the start Richardt was an excellent rugby player. At that stage, when he played for our first team he played with the two other guys, Heinrich and Deon, and he was always a very positive guy and a hard-working player.”
Like RBAI in Belfast and Blackrock College in Dublin, Grey has a proud record of producing top-level rugby players.
Ruan Pienaar is one of those and, along with Jannie du Plessis and Strauss’ cousin Adriaan, he will take to the field opposite his alma mater team-mates tomorrow.
“It was not an easy decision for him to come here and leave everything behind,” the Ulster scrum-half admitted.
“South Africa is a rugby nation and it is every young boy’s dream to play for the Boks, but young players see that opportunity that he has taken with both hands and I’m sure he can’t wait to make his Ireland debut.
“I played with his brother Andries, who is the same age as me. I know Richardt since he was in primary school. I always knew he was a special player.”
The hooker himself stressed yesterday that he has no mixed feelings about the anthems or facing the team he grew up dreaming of playing for, and said he will be focused on the task at hand.
But Drotske, who coached Strauss at the Cheetahs, believes he will have to deal with the inevitable emotions that will come during the formalities.
“That must be tough,” the former Springbok said. “The better thing for him to do is get the emotions out of the way.
“There is no doubt that, as a young boy, his ambition was to play for the Springboks. But I think that he is mentally strong enough to put that to one side and to play well for Ireland.”
Having moved from the back-row to hooker in the formative years of his own career, Drotske oversaw Strauss’ development at the Cheetahs. The man who was part of the 1995 World Cup-winning squad played a big part in helping the youngster grow into his new position.
“I always knew it was a good move for him, being in the same position myself. I moved when I was an U-21 player from flank to hooker,” he said.
“I thought it was a very good idea, he worked hard and made it and I am very glad for him.
“At the beginning he was a little bit small. We all said to him that he must put on some weight and he really responded well and worked hard in the gym to put on seven or eight kilos.
“He worked hard at his basics, his scrummaging and his line-out throwing, and it is quite nice to see that he has made it in Ireland. He is a quality player, a very good ball-stealer with a very high work rate.”
Then, in 2009, the protege came to his coach and sought advice about a move he was thinking of making.
“At that stage he came to talk to me and explained there were quite a lot of young, quality hookers playing for South Africa,” Drotske recalled.
“John Smit was still captain, Bismarck du Plessis came through, Adriaan Strauss and Chiliboy Ralepelle and he just felt that, at that stage, it would have taken him a long time to play international rugby and that is what he wanted to do.
“He thought that he could make it quicker in Ireland and he did. I’m very proud of him.”
COURAGE
That move, Van der Wal said, took “a lot of courage,” and having never looked back with success after success with Leinster, he becomes an Irishman this week.
Still, nobody else wearing black tomorrow will understand what it means to wear that dark green.
“When you go into our training room, where the boys sit, we have the names of all the Springboks who have played in that position. It is an unbelievable experience and inspiration for the boys to sit in a place where other Springboks have sat, knowing that so many others in their position have gone on to play international rugby,” Van der Wal explained.
Whether they add the school’s first Ireland international to their wall of fame remains to be seen, but Strauss, himself, appears to be happy to leave the past behind.
“I see myself as an Irish player and one day I’ll be lucky enough to be a citizen. So, bar my family and a couple of my friends, I’m an Irishman,” he said, confirming that his parents Andries and Colleen will be at Landsdowne for his big day.
“I made my commitment to Ireland three years ago and I’m just very happy to get this opportunity. For me, it’s probably more special just to run out for Ireland than anything else.”
- Ruaidhri O’Connor
9 Nov 2012, 13:58 pm
personally, my take on that whole defection event is, they were under severe pressure in the run up to the final… and the gaskets blew.
just lost a super final… perennial chokers tag bandied around…
moerse big expectation for them (the form team) to walk the final…
and then somebodys says something in the mix
and BOOM!
9 Nov 2012, 13:58 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-400: Hehe, why not? These are not soccer “friendlies”.
9 Nov 2012, 14:00 pm
Lambie will have a stormer of a game tomorrow.Bok supporter first and foremost tomorrow.Really don’t have time for provincialism when it comes to the national team.
9 Nov 2012, 14:00 pm
@stormersboy-406:
I don’t know if I should answer you. You know what happened last time.
farkingsmiliescanalwayspleasethosewholikepleasing
9 Nov 2012, 14:01 pm
anyway…
let’s hope the bokke have a stormer tomorrow…
and give us all a GOOD reason to celebrate…!!
cheers all
9 Nov 2012, 14:01 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-409:
Actually never thought of it like that. You may be right for once.
9 Nov 2012, 14:02 pm
@Nils-410:
you’re setting yourself up as a martyr to a nothing cause, here.
9 Nov 2012, 14:02 pm
@ufo-407:
Looking forward to Schalks return next season
Elstadt, Carr, Kolisi, Burger, Fourie, Vermeuelen.
I honestly don’t know who AC will select as his combo. The only given is Vermuelen at 8. The rest is a free for all.`
9 Nov 2012, 14:02 pm
oopa gangnam style
9 Nov 2012, 14:02 pm
@ufo-407:
Indeed.
A gent.
Sad to lose one when you get left with pondscum like HG and Capo.
9 Nov 2012, 14:04 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-394: @<a
"so in short; poppa is a doos kiwi troll who exploits the provincial rivalries of saffas on this site..?."
And you are exactly what………………………….. bakkies?
9 Nov 2012, 14:04 pm
@Nikita-412: Yes. We make and explosive team!
Like Diet Coke and Menthos.
You’re the Diet Coke of course.
9 Nov 2012, 14:04 pm
@DublinShark-408:
How’s the weather there?
9 Nov 2012, 14:04 pm
@Nikita-414:
well yes, this once AND the facts about kiwis cheating
9 Nov 2012, 14:04 pm
@Dawn-324: Accepted, was a slow night here also. I’m sure we’ll chat again soon though. Good evening.
9 Nov 2012, 14:05 pm
@Dawn-392: it is i Dawnie, it is i.
@ufo-393: nah, the others just needed a break i guess.
@David-396: i am always watching you guys ready to pounce
@Jeraldjay-397: ag i am sorry i missed it but have started a new web based service so i need my sleep haha.
9 Nov 2012, 14:05 pm
@ufo-413: Cheers mate have a good one.
Still working half days i see
9 Nov 2012, 14:05 pm
@DublinShark-408: Looking forward to seeing the Irish Strauss in action.Are you going to the game tomorrow ?
9 Nov 2012, 14:07 pm
@The Rangerman-424:
Home delivered biltong?
9 Nov 2012, 14:07 pm
@Jeraldjay-416: Schalk will be eased back in, so it will be Elstadt and Kolisi.
If Elstadt’s chest injury heals in time. he tore the muscle off the bone, so quite a rehab process.
I’d be happy with Fourie, Kolisi and Duanne if required. A great trio. Each bringing skills to the party,
9 Nov 2012, 14:08 pm
@gunther-427: Organic Tuna Steaks.
9 Nov 2012, 14:09 pm
So all in all Trolls are like rouge ******* of the blogging underworld…….IE dispelled by the group and throwing rocks and barking off in the distance looking for attention in any synical way
9 Nov 2012, 14:10 pm
@Dawn-421: @Dawn-421:
Right now – pouring with rain, 5ish degrees. Expect to clear later.
Tomorrow evening – partly cloudy, 7ish degrees, 50% rain showers
9 Nov 2012, 14:10 pm
@Esoteric-423:
Good evening to you too, sir.
@The Rangerman-424:
You lie. Since when are you a proponent of diversity!
9 Nov 2012, 14:10 pm
i mean seriously, if one were to consider the things these filthy capey’s say about bulls players and coaches AGAIN AND AGAIN, thats good grounds for litigation and libelous lawsuits.
even a reason for the human rights commision and constitutional court to have a look in.
all she did was call a few sharkies out for ‘polluting’ the place with ‘i love lambie more than you’, ‘no, i love lambie more than you do’, ‘no, i love lambie more than all of you’…. fark me… i was uncomfortable…
9 Nov 2012, 14:10 pm
@cane-419:
Poppa used to be OK until he went all rouge
9 Nov 2012, 14:11 pm
@ufo-401: cheers man, enjoy.
@stormersboy-405: ithink iron mike is probably one of the real gents of boxing these days but man did he have some demons to get rid of.
9 Nov 2012, 14:11 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-433: Sticky keyboards all round.
9 Nov 2012, 14:12 pm
@stormersboy-428:
What about Rhodes? Also a 4/7 like Elstadt.
9 Nov 2012, 14:12 pm
@Nikita-374:
No one is perfect Niki.
That’s why this is such a great site.
from 12,000 miles away……………………………………..we care what YOU think.
9 Nov 2012, 14:12 pm
@Rockn Rolla-434</a
All rouge?
Indeed. A good reason why men should never wear makeup.
9 Nov 2012, 14:12 pm
I cant belive they edit the word B@B00n….
9 Nov 2012, 14:12 pm
@Heavens Game-337: We know your a w anker HG, no need to perform!
9 Nov 2012, 14:13 pm
@cane-419:
never mind the truth of the statement caner, as it was said it jest.
i dont believe i would qualify as a troll, i honestly don’t.
ask anybody here
i trust they would testify for me
9 Nov 2012, 14:13 pm
@David-437: Yes he’ll be in the mix for sure.
Carr may be fit too in which case we have 2 full sets of loosies
6 Kolisi / Fourie
7 Elstadt / Rhodes
8 Vermullet / Carr
Then Burger who will end up being a first choice at 6 or 7.
9 Nov 2012, 14:14 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-433:
Same here. I mean, what they do in the privacy of the Shark Tank showers is up to them, but not on a public blog.
9 Nov 2012, 14:14 pm
@Rockn Rolla-434:
You Mothers drove him Rouge.
9 Nov 2012, 14:14 pm
@stormersboy-428:
Yes. The Fourie, Kolisi, Vermuelen combo would be my choice. Covers all bases.
9 Nov 2012, 14:14 pm
@gunther-427:
nah
.@Dawn-432: moi?
i live in the most diverse city in the country Dawnie.
and i love it.
every day, every hour.
but i hate our government because they are lying pigs.
9 Nov 2012, 14:15 pm
sorry.
i meant lying thieving pigs.
9 Nov 2012, 14:15 pm
Actually i enjoy the Bulls bloggers on here immensely. Tac included.
Nothing personal.
Just good banter.
9 Nov 2012, 14:15 pm
@Jeraldjay-416:
yeah.. schalk’s gonna be rip-roaring to go…!!
will be interesting to see what AC does… good to be able to rotate and hopefully keep all of them fit through the season…
@gunther-418:
very true words and sentiments…
@The Rangerman-424:
ley’s hope they have a good break and come back refreshed and fired up…!!
@stormersboy-425:
cheers bud…
such a lekker day out there today… gotta go and enjoy some of it..!!
out…
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