Preview: Scotland vs Springboks
16 Nov 2012
RYAN VREDE, in Edinburgh, analyses the key match ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test at Murrayfield.
I’ve written extensively about the importance of the victory over Ireland in Dublin last week from Heyneke Meyer’s perspective and what it would have done for the mental growth of the collective. However, the quality of the performance needs to improve against a determined Scotland side who come into the Test with confidence gained from having beaten the Springboks recently and indeed tested the world champion All Blacks last Sunday.
I think there will be three key areas the Springboks have to master if they are to win: The gainline and breakdown on attack (I’m confident they’ll do so on defence), the lineout and goal-kicking.
Scotland have great belief that their rush defence system will blunt the Springboks’ aerial assault, cutting down the tourist’s primary strike runners’ space and time and consequently creating broken-field opportunities from poor punts. The tourists’ strike runners were poor in the first half at Lansdowne Road but upped the ante after the break which saw a drastic change in the Test’s attacking complexion. They have to be on point, not only for the efficiency of their kicking game, but also the fluency of their ball-in-hand attack, with Scotland exhibiting an appetite for spoiling play at the breakdown. It is therefore imperative that they win the collisions and clean well if they hope to ease their attacking task.
With their attack in what Meyer called the ‘goal zone’ (between the 22m and opposition tryline) unlikely to show marked improvement, they will rely heavily on their lineout mauling as a try-scoring weapon. Territory is key in this regard and if they are able to set up drives close to the aforementioned zone I cannot see Scotland’s pack denying them regularly. Expect them to crumble under the force of the Springboks’ shove or concede penalties, which then heightens the importance of goal kicker Pat Lambie.
The Springbok flyhalf kicked relatively well last week, but with his side’s now chronic struggles to cross the chalk, he will be acutely aware of how critical it is that he contributes with the boot.
The forecast is for heavy rain on Saturday, which will demand a tight approach from both teams. In a war of attrition, the Springboks have an edge but Scotland will be combative for at least three quarters of the match. The vistors’ bench boasts some strong impact players and they could prove to be a determining factor in the result, but they must have a platform on which to build, as I suspect that chasing the game with the Scots galvanised by the prospect of another Springboks scalp and passionate home crowd roused, could be terminal to the Springboks’ cause.
There has been a patent determination about the Springboks this week and their supporters will hope that translates into a clinical performance. Victory is non-negotiable.
VREDE’S CALL: Springboks by 10
Scotland – 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Lamont, 13 Nick De Luca, 12 Matt Scott, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Greig Laidlaw, 9 Mike Blair, 8 David Denton, 7 John Barclay, 6 Kelly Brown (c), 5 Jim Hamilton, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Ryan Grant.
Subs: 16 Dougie Hall, 17 Kyle Traynor, 18 Geoff Cross, 19 Alastair Kellock, 20 Stuart McInally, 21 Henry Pyrgos, 22 Ruaridh Jackson, 23 Peter Murchie.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Pat Lambie, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermuelen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Subs: 16 Schalk Brits, 17 Heinke van der Merwe, 18 CJ van der Linde, 19 Flip van der Merwe, 20 Marcell Coetzee, 21 Morne Steyn, 22 Jaco Taute, 23 Lwazi Mvovo.
272 Comments
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16 Nov 2012, 11:23 am
pfff
16 Nov 2012, 11:31 am
If it rains Lambie is the man. I would have been even more worried if Steyn was the flyhalf in the rain.
16 Nov 2012, 11:33 am
one thing’s for certain, the scots are in with a chance
because the bok dont cheat as much as you know who.
16 Nov 2012, 11:41 am
The last time we played the Scots, the ref literally cheated, I remember Zinzan Brooke, calling how embarrassing for Scotland to celebrate such a clear undeserved win, he clearly wasn’t yet to benefit from their own Lawarence
16 Nov 2012, 11:41 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-3: I think the Boks chances have improved as all I read is how good the Scots’ chances are. For them to win they need to catch us off guard. We will not underestimate them, in fact I think we will come out firing.
16 Nov 2012, 11:47 am
@Horings-5:
yip
a guns blazing arm wrestle which might open up later in the match but the boks to win it, no doubt.
16 Nov 2012, 11:55 am
Nah, the Boks can’t lose to the Scots. It is impossible.
I think it quite disturbing already that some people are even giving them a chance against the Boks.
As @Horings-5 said above, they would only have a chance if we were asleep and the media has ensured that we’re awake for this game.
R1500.00 on the Boks by 15 or more.
16 Nov 2012, 11:56 am
Flashbacks of 2010 anyone? Nahhhhhhhhhhhh, surely not.
16 Nov 2012, 11:58 am
Scots played their game “of the season” last weekend, I think.
Boks to win comfortably and much more convincing. If they don’t, then we’re in even deeper poo than anybody might’ve thought.
GO BOKKE!!!!!
16 Nov 2012, 12:01 pm
So the AB’s get a perfect day for running rugby against the Scots and we get a soggy Murreyfield yet again.
Ai.
16 Nov 2012, 12:05 pm
@XhosaKid-4: Does the ref always cheat when the Springboks lose, or only sometimes?
16 Nov 2012, 12:08 pm
boks by 4
HM OUT
16 Nov 2012, 12:09 pm
@BrumbiesBoy-11: Only sometimes. For instance when he confesses it after retirement.
16 Nov 2012, 12:10 pm
@jacoshark-12: If you want him out they need to lose.
16 Nov 2012, 12:14 pm
@Horings-14: Lets’s say hypothetically, things get so bad that HM gets fired – who would you have him replaced with? What would be the best cadidates at this current moment?
16 Nov 2012, 12:18 pm
@Marty-15: Mallet?
16 Nov 2012, 12:19 pm
@goodstuff-16: Gift from the rugby gods that would be.
16 Nov 2012, 12:22 pm
@Marty-15: Gert Small / though I think Nick mallet is better I haven’t been coached by him. Jaaq Nienaber for defence. Some nz/aus skills or backline couch or Hawies Fourie and brendon venter fowards coach . If A coetzee wins the super 15 he is also in with a shout
Who else do we have
16 Nov 2012, 12:22 pm
@goodstuff-10: Its a conspiracy. The NZRU has bribed God along with the RFU and every match official that has ever referred their games except that paragon of virtue W Barnes.
16 Nov 2012, 12:22 pm
@Marty-15: Meyer will be the best man for the job. I am just saying if some here wants him to get fired we need to lose to the Scots, because we will not lose one of our first 3 tests next year.
But hypotetically, I would have said Mallett, but he pisses me off these days. Old coaches should not team up against each other. They should know how difficult the job is.
But hypothetically, my head coach will be Allistair Coetzee, Rassie as technical advisor, Proudfoot as forwards coach, Pieter de Villiers as scrum consultant. Matfield as lineout and kick offs consultant. Nienaber as defence coach and then we need a proper skills coach.
16 Nov 2012, 12:23 pm
@goodstuff-10: According to every other website and weather report there won’t be any rain and it won’t even be that cold either. don’t know where ryan got his weather info. Therefore his preview is actually not worth alot
16 Nov 2012, 12:24 pm
@groen-18: So you have been coached by Gert?
16 Nov 2012, 12:25 pm
@Horings-13: Is that right?
I don’t suppose you happen to have any documentary evidence of this that I could read do you?
16 Nov 2012, 12:26 pm
@aliboy-19: You are on to something my dear Watson.
16 Nov 2012, 12:27 pm
@Horings-22: Nope was just meaning with Mallets abrasive style on tv he looks good but you know the players would know best. Would be an honor to be coached by any of these guys
It’s always different behind the scenes . We don’t want another Mitch saga
16 Nov 2012, 12:28 pm
Crofters by 6.
16 Nov 2012, 12:28 pm
@BrumbiesBoy-23: Oh, you did not. Some of these keo bloggers (read tranformation) will be all over you before you can say aussie, aussie, aussie!
16 Nov 2012, 12:28 pm
@goodstuff-10: What does it matter if there’s rain, wind or shine?
Our tactics won’t change whatever the weather – skop ‘n jaag and then maul in their 22……… zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
16 Nov 2012, 12:32 pm
@Horings-27: I wait with baited breath.
16 Nov 2012, 12:34 pm
@goodstuff-16: @The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-17: @Horings-20: I reckon Eddie Jones
16 Nov 2012, 12:37 pm
I dont think Lambie has had decent playing conditions since the S15
he should be able to roll a joint with one hand in black the south easter wind !!!
16 Nov 2012, 12:38 pm
@Marty-30:
The man that took Queensland to 14th in the Super 14.
Judas Jones.
Yeah right.
16 Nov 2012, 12:39 pm
Expected weather: Partly cloudy with a high of 9°C, dropping to 4°C.
16 Nov 2012, 12:41 pm
@cane-32:
Dont even think the rugby Gods themselves could have save the Reds that season!!!
16 Nov 2012, 12:44 pm
Euan Murray vs Heinkie in scrum
cant wait to see this battle
16 Nov 2012, 12:44 pm
@Rockn Rolla-34:
Maybe. But Eddie didn’t help either.
The rat that left the sinking ship.
16 Nov 2012, 12:45 pm
rain in the last 1/4
slat hulle bokke!
16 Nov 2012, 12:46 pm
@kingrichard-33:
Not a good day to be a winger with not much to do.
16 Nov 2012, 12:48 pm
@cane-32: He’s a cult hero in SA, Cane.
Was given the nickname “Eddie Moans” when coaching the Wallabies but when Jake roped him in to help the Boks to RWC glory in ’07 he instantly became “Eddie the Great”!
Flippin hypocrites!!!
16 Nov 2012, 12:48 pm
@greatest13gerber-35:
The Murrays were the most blood thirsty of the Highland Clans.
They killed more Jocks than any English King ever did.
16 Nov 2012, 12:49 pm
@cane-32: Jones has just coached Japan to their first ever win on European soil, a 34-23 win over Romania.
16 Nov 2012, 12:51 pm
@BrumbiesBoy-39:
He did okay for your Brumbies though……………………didn’t he?
I mean he inherited the best Team in the Super Comp…………….
16 Nov 2012, 12:51 pm
@cane-40:
ah true. Euan is a powerful scrummager one of Top 5 in Europe…although Thomas Domingo made him look like a schoolgirl a few years back
16 Nov 2012, 12:51 pm
Mallet said on Supersport that he’s not interested in the Bok coaching job. This was just after not getting the England job, and at the time we all thought Gert Smal would be the Bok coach. Hopefully after watching Meyer this year he changed his mind!
Anyway we should beat the Scots, I’m worried about next Saturday against the Poms!
16 Nov 2012, 12:54 pm
@cane-36:
But hold on if Paddy O’Brien was in the pocket, they would be reffed all the way to the trophy (IE NZ WC 2012
……Just Kidding Mate !!!!!
16 Nov 2012, 12:54 pm
@jacoshark-12:
@Marty-15:
@goodstuff-16:
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-17:
not gonna happen.
you people are ludicrous.
16 Nov 2012, 12:55 pm
@cane-42: Yeah, he did a great job with us…which made him even more unpopular in SA!!!
16 Nov 2012, 12:55 pm
@Big Hit-41:
True enough, Eddie has had his moments.
And he is an absolutely brilliant man with the media.
The very best International Coach to see Interviewed.
16 Nov 2012, 12:57 pm
@groen-18:
sad to say that a combination of all the above including meyer is probably an unrealistic ‘A-team dream team’ pipedream…
16 Nov 2012, 12:58 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-46:
“You people are Ludicrous”.
So what, you think Franz Ludicous is the man for the job.
You Bulls fans are unbelievable.
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