Preview: Scotland vs Springboks
16 Nov 2012
RYAN VREDE, in Edinburgh, analyses the key match ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test at Murrayfield.
I’ve written extensively about the importance of the victory over Ireland in Dublin last week from Heyneke Meyer’s perspective and what it would have done for the mental growth of the collective. However, the quality of the performance needs to improve against a determined Scotland side who come into the Test with confidence gained from having beaten the Springboks recently and indeed tested the world champion All Blacks last Sunday.
I think there will be three key areas the Springboks have to master if they are to win: The gainline and breakdown on attack (I’m confident they’ll do so on defence), the lineout and goal-kicking.
Scotland have great belief that their rush defence system will blunt the Springboks’ aerial assault, cutting down the tourist’s primary strike runners’ space and time and consequently creating broken-field opportunities from poor punts. The tourists’ strike runners were poor in the first half at Lansdowne Road but upped the ante after the break which saw a drastic change in the Test’s attacking complexion. They have to be on point, not only for the efficiency of their kicking game, but also the fluency of their ball-in-hand attack, with Scotland exhibiting an appetite for spoiling play at the breakdown. It is therefore imperative that they win the collisions and clean well if they hope to ease their attacking task.
With their attack in what Meyer called the ‘goal zone’ (between the 22m and opposition tryline) unlikely to show marked improvement, they will rely heavily on their lineout mauling as a try-scoring weapon. Territory is key in this regard and if they are able to set up drives close to the aforementioned zone I cannot see Scotland’s pack denying them regularly. Expect them to crumble under the force of the Springboks’ shove or concede penalties, which then heightens the importance of goal kicker Pat Lambie.
The Springbok flyhalf kicked relatively well last week, but with his side’s now chronic struggles to cross the chalk, he will be acutely aware of how critical it is that he contributes with the boot.
The forecast is for heavy rain on Saturday, which will demand a tight approach from both teams. In a war of attrition, the Springboks have an edge but Scotland will be combative for at least three quarters of the match. The vistors’ bench boasts some strong impact players and they could prove to be a determining factor in the result, but they must have a platform on which to build, as I suspect that chasing the game with the Scots galvanised by the prospect of another Springboks scalp and passionate home crowd roused, could be terminal to the Springboks’ cause.
There has been a patent determination about the Springboks this week and their supporters will hope that translates into a clinical performance. Victory is non-negotiable.
VREDE’S CALL: Springboks by 10
Scotland – 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Lamont, 13 Nick De Luca, 12 Matt Scott, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Greig Laidlaw, 9 Mike Blair, 8 David Denton, 7 John Barclay, 6 Kelly Brown (c), 5 Jim Hamilton, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Ryan Grant.
Subs: 16 Dougie Hall, 17 Kyle Traynor, 18 Geoff Cross, 19 Alastair Kellock, 20 Stuart McInally, 21 Henry Pyrgos, 22 Ruaridh Jackson, 23 Peter Murchie.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Pat Lambie, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermuelen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Subs: 16 Schalk Brits, 17 Heinke van der Merwe, 18 CJ van der Linde, 19 Flip van der Merwe, 20 Marcell Coetzee, 21 Morne Steyn, 22 Jaco Taute, 23 Lwazi Mvovo.
272 Comments
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16 Nov 2012, 13:01 pm
@cane-36: Not too sure what he did over in Aussie-land but he made a big impact to the Bok team when introduced by Jake White before the 2007 WC.
The bok backline began to run lines we had never seen before – there was very good feedback from the players about his technical coaching abilities
16 Nov 2012, 13:05 pm
@Marty-51:
See this is my issue, why cant the same folks that learnt the running lines and attaching style replicate the same thing in our current setup
16 Nov 2012, 13:05 pm
attacking style
16 Nov 2012, 13:06 pm
@Rockn Rolla-45:
Paddy is in no ones pocket Rocker.
He is however a little guilty of over defending his Referees.
Wayne Barnes springs to mind.
16 Nov 2012, 13:06 pm
@cane-40:
well, he does have a look in his eyes about him which speaks of murder and suffering, but expect heinke to tear him a new one on saturday.
and to think the ab’s were lucky to miss him due to his silly religious beliefs.
16 Nov 2012, 13:08 pm
@Horings-13:
pragtig
16 Nov 2012, 13:11 pm
@cane-50:
‘Ludekrous’
no, not for the bok job but slaptjips and pine would be.
16 Nov 2012, 13:11 pm
What does Euan think will happen if he scrums on a Sunday? Will the sky fall on Scotland?
Just as well Mtwarira went home. Because imaging Euan dominating him in the scrum, and then Monday we have to read about how Murray had the number of the Beast?
Horrific.
16 Nov 2012, 13:13 pm
@katman-58:
16 Nov 2012, 13:13 pm
@Marty-51:
They ran such good lines,
they scored no (zero, nought, none, nil, zilch, nada) tries in the final.
Against the 6th rated IRB Team in the World.
In fact England were the only Team that looked likely to score a try.
SA loves Eddie,
Jakes loves Eddie,
and
of course most of all,
Eddie loves Eddie.
16 Nov 2012, 13:15 pm
@cane-54:
True Referee Bosses are way to lenient, Andre Watson our Ref Boss is the same……..
last i saw if was a profession……..Imagine fuckingup like that as a manager in any corporate enviroment……you get sacked right……..These refs has an OJ Simpson vibe about them
16 Nov 2012, 13:15 pm
@katman-58:
we are only one month and ten days away from the ‘end of the world’ as it is.
he clearly is being cautious.
16 Nov 2012, 13:18 pm
@cane-54:
‘Paddy is in no ones pocket Rocker.’…
you kiwi fans are unbelievable
16 Nov 2012, 13:18 pm
@cane-60: OK, so we won 15-6. By how many points did you win your final in your home country?
16 Nov 2012, 13:30 pm
@Rockn Rolla-52: I don’t know boet. It is what all of us are hoping for but somehow we haven’t been able to get it right.
16 Nov 2012, 13:30 pm
@Horings-64: Against a team that lost to Tonga!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
16 Nov 2012, 13:34 pm
Heavy rain pretty much even things up. Scots are probably second best rugby team playing under water.
16 Nov 2012, 13:42 pm
@Nils-67: Ryan probably got his prediction from a local barmen who claims to know Edinburgh weather better than anyone else. The weather forecasts show sunny afternoon with 20% chance of rain.
16 Nov 2012, 13:45 pm
@Horings-68:
And you expect us to believe you,
I’m with Ryan,
I’ll listen to the Barman all day.
16 Nov 2012, 13:46 pm
@Horings-68: Ouch, that’s bad for them.
However since Scots finally have seen how the tryline (the opposition’s) looks like maybe we’ll witness a contest anyway.
16 Nov 2012, 13:47 pm
@Nils-67:
our coaches have been under water, infact out of depth deep under water since day one, when HM screams into the walkie talkie its got that under water muffled effect
16 Nov 2012, 13:48 pm
@Horings-64:
Enough.
That’s how many Horings…………………….Enough.
16 Nov 2012, 14:02 pm
Hey Ryan, what’s the weather like? I have a Springbok jersey, but I feel its not going to get much airtime in Edinburgh. My knock off Springbok scarf seems more sensible.
16 Nov 2012, 14:06 pm
@goodstuff-66:
Yep, we beat them twice oh and the team that owns you guys Ozzie, we beat then as well.
16 Nov 2012, 14:07 pm
@catchlightuk.com-73: Maybe a dress. Fit right in with the Mac’s.
16 Nov 2012, 14:08 pm
Why Vermeulen’s days are numbered :
Spies and Kankowski retain a comfortable advantage for their athleticism and explosiveness off the mark, they are far likelier to be a link in attacking plays or counter-attacking plays, an area where Vermeulen tends under perform!
Spies and Kankowski , of course, are undoubtedly world-class lineout players, another area where Vermeulen is not being used. As for the Grunt a lot of people are talking about, surely this could come from the tight 5 and other loosies (no shortage of grunt in the pack).
All this talk of the Boks playing attacking rugby, surely we need the right players for this!
16 Nov 2012, 14:11 pm
@goodstuff-10: Like we would know what to do on a perfect day for running rugby. This Bok side are playing like the Sharks always play at the start of every season. K.A.K.
16 Nov 2012, 14:13 pm
@umfezi-77: IS playing. Christelike Nasionale Onderwys showing its undies…
16 Nov 2012, 14:30 pm
@JAWESOME-76: I will rather play an 8th man who is not an explosive player, but has some fight in him. Play Vermeulen until Arno Botha replaces him.
16 Nov 2012, 14:31 pm
@JAWESOME-76: Duane does the dirty work and is good in the lineouts. Spies can stick to Pretoria. Kanko is good – I would have him off the bench.
16 Nov 2012, 14:31 pm
@Horings-79: I think workrate is the term I was looking for. Maybe Kanko, but not Spies. Vermeulen also adds fetching skills at the breakdown.
16 Nov 2012, 14:31 pm
@Horings-79: Duane and Flo compliment each other well.
16 Nov 2012, 14:32 pm
@JAWESOME-76:
Thank god, i though i was the only person that see’s he runs at the same pace as his WP FWD,s coach Matt Proudfoot!!
16 Nov 2012, 14:34 pm
@Horings-81:
If only one could have a hybrid of Kanko’s speed and skill with Vermeulens physicality and fetching skill,
16 Nov 2012, 14:37 pm
@katman-58: brilliant
16 Nov 2012, 14:38 pm
@Rockn Rolla-83:
Even a bit slower after his recent knee injury…..
Also all this moaning about not playing smaller quicker players with better skill levels, Butt please!!!!!!!! when it comes to Vermeulen it is the bigger the better…….
16 Nov 2012, 14:42 pm
@Rockn Rolla-84: I think Kanko added physicality to his game, but he should have gone to Europe to develop his game. These agents pisses me off with them always going after the money.
Fetching skills should not be so important for your lineout specialists. I think it is very difficult to do both and I think props and hookers are best positioned to fetch from multi phases. If you are a young prop it is one aspect of your game you need to be as accurate as possible in to stand out.
16 Nov 2012, 14:46 pm
@JAWESOME-86:
Im sure he must be the slowest in the touring squad, even behind Guthro……im a fan of fast backrowers, i would choose speed over size anyway, what good is it having a big strong no 8 that the defence will be able to commit 2x defenders to the tackle !!!
Then again i thought Daniel and Coetzee where fast but JDJ danced past them so badly that they were clutching air and holding their peckers on that one switch in the CC final
16 Nov 2012, 14:47 pm
@Rockn Rolla-84:
his name is spies… pierre spies…
16 Nov 2012, 14:47 pm
@Horings-87:
Ya Kanko became the shark lineout kingpin before the went to that empire of the sun
16 Nov 2012, 14:48 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-89:
Britney Spies
16 Nov 2012, 14:48 pm
There are certain games in which Duane will be rampant (his strengths), and there are others in which a Kanko type player will be rampant (his strengths).
There will NEVER be a game in which Spies will be rampant as he has no strengths.
Simple.
16 Nov 2012, 14:52 pm
@Rockn Rolla-91:
Next year it will be Captain Spies……
16 Nov 2012, 14:52 pm
@Rockn Rolla-91:
terma of endearment have long been popular at the bulls.
16 Nov 2012, 14:56 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-94:
Come on please, I bet he takes bubble baths !!!
16 Nov 2012, 15:11 pm
@Rockn Rolla-95: LOL and Kanko was the rubber duckie until recently. Duane is a skillful no 8 who brings a hard edge; he is the best we have.
I’d like to see Coetzee get an extended run at 7.
16 Nov 2012, 15:12 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-92: Oh yes there is: a game of who has the most mis-matched upper to lower body profile.
16 Nov 2012, 15:17 pm
@Rockn Rolla-95:
you have a stance against rugby players using surfactants of a certain kind in their bath water..?..
16 Nov 2012, 15:20 pm
The Boks lost last time out at Edinburgh in 2010, they had the Beast, Mvovo, Aplon in the line up then?
So, replace the Beast with Steenkamp, Aplon with JdJ while Kirchner and Mvovoare there alright, what wiould you get?
I see a betting upset here, the odds are nearly 5:1, the SPCA who are one of the beficiaries of my winning kept bugging me for a while since their windfall from the CC Final
Provided Steenkamp and JdJ will stay on the field for 60 minutes, its the Jocks by 3-5 points!
16 Nov 2012, 15:25 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-98: No i dont give a flying FFFFFF about there bath water, that my friend is a calculated bet
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