The year of the Sharks
16 Jan 2013
MARK KEOHANE is picking the Sharks, Reds and Canes as the 2013 Super Rugby conference winners.
It may appear madness to pick a winner of the tournament in January because this expanded version means so much can change post the June internationals, but my money is on the Sharks to finally win the competition that has taunted and teased their supporters but never pleased them.
My pick is the Sharks to take the South African conference and have the crucial advantage of hosting teams in the play-offs. Home ground advantage is usually the recipe for title success, although the Sharks have proven to be the exception. In 2007 they hosted the Bulls and lost in the last minute. In last year’s Currie Cup final a youthful Western Province thumped the hosts.
That’s history.
John Plumtree’s picked the most balanced squad among South African teams and the Sharks, in squad depth, are the strongest in the competition.
Player management and rotation is the key to success in this tournament, as is starting and finishing well.
The Sharks have a good home draw and they will make it count.
The Stormers will also be in the top six, but the Bulls are going to have to improve dramatically in terms of consistency to make the play-offs. Realistically, and don’t forget they are my favourite team, I think the quality of squad depth and starting player is more a top-eight than a top-four squad. The Cheetahs will always be a favourite to entertain and will always have the capability to knock over a top-four team, especially in Bloemfontein, on a one-off but the player depth has never been there to seriously challenge for the play-offs. The Cheetahs select from Griquas and the Free State Currie Cup Cheetahs, and while Griquas always show promise in the Currie Cup many of those players limitations are exposed over the course of a competition that now is the most demanding in terms of longevity, intensity and travel in the world. The Kings, in their debut season, will do well to win three matches.
The post-World Cup blues suffered by many teams is not a factor this year and 2013 and 2014 are the years in-between World Cups when Super Rugby is a priority. In 2015 it is a preparation to the game’s biggest prize, the World Cup.
Jake White’s Brumbies were an unknown in 2012 and they surprised many. White did a fantastic job in restoring rugby union pride in Canberra, but the second-season syndrome is something he will be all too aware of, especially with the Reds in a healthier position in terms of player availability.
The Tahs can’t be as awful as they were a year ago although they too look a year away from a play-off. I see them more mid-table.
In New Zealand the heat will be on the Chiefs to show last year was not a one-hit wonder. They’re good enough to make the play-offs as defending champions but they don’t command the same presence among the backs with no Sonny Bill Williams to occupy the minds of the opposition. The New Zealand conference is the toughest of the three, but there won’t be a miracle in year one from Blues coach John Kirwan. There will be hope and improved performances but the Blues are a three-year project more than a first season sensation. They will be the worst performing of the New Zealand sides in terms of league points even if they will show enough to be applauded more than condemned.
The Crusaders will be contenders, more so on history than on current strength but Dan Carter alone among the backs and Kieran Read, leader of the pack in Richie McCaw’s absence through a sabbatical, lack the support in numbers to speak of the Crusaders in awe.
The Highlanders will be good, potentially the second best among the Kiwi teams, and the team to beat in New Zealand will be Conrad Smith’s Hurricanes.
345 Comments
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15 Jan 2013, 23:07 pm
@keocoza ******* kiss of death. Thanks for nothing!
15 Jan 2013, 23:07 pm
Goodness gracious Keohane dragon……you are going to cause a riot here amongst your fellow Stormers fans !
15 Jan 2013, 23:15 pm
Cue epic tail spinning and wailing from the Stormers residents on this overly-Stormers-hyped website….
15 Jan 2013, 23:22 pm
Why wailing?? …. we jumping with joy…..Mark is notorious for picking the wrong sides … he proved it so many times …. tough luck Reds and Canes …Sharks were never going to be in it, everybody with half a braincell knows that, so Marks’ jinx does not even matter as far as they are concerned.
15 Jan 2013, 23:25 pm
@Dusky-1: Hey Dopey, read the article. He tells us he is a Bulls fan, and I can tell you from past experience having the Keo seal of approval is not a curse you want associated with your team.
15 Jan 2013, 23:27 pm
Mark is a Bull supporter.
Note to SA Rugby editor, please make the cover of the next edition a full on Shark team photo.
That way a double jinx will be on them
15 Jan 2013, 23:36 pm
Keohane is correct re: the Sa and Oz Conferences. On paper the Sharks have an awesome team and if they get home ground advantage this year, should take it out. The Stormers will be there play off time, I have no doubts about that.
The Nz Conference is a lot harder to guage, after a half doz games we will see where the teams are at. The Crusaders possess the aura which plays on other teams minds and are one of the few teams who usually win when not playing well.
The Canes young forwards will be up for it this year after a rude awakening last year in the first 10 or so games where their backs kept them in the game.
Highlanders have bought well and added steel and experience to their pack, but if some of their key backs go down, there will be question marks.
Chiefs will work hard, but Sbw and Taumalolo were the difference last year in some games so can’t see them repeating.
The Blues will beat the Bulls…..
15 Jan 2013, 23:42 pm
The kiss of death has just been placed on the Sharks!Great stuff ,Mark.
15 Jan 2013, 23:43 pm
oh joy; the keo jinx is on the shocks
15 Jan 2013, 23:44 pm
what a way to start the season …!!!
15 Jan 2013, 23:44 pm
Based on the Stormers win percentage and the influx of new players I would disagree.
15 Jan 2013, 23:45 pm
Canes lack depth, but have some great individuals. The Chiefs and Saders to dominate NZ conference. Sharks and Stormers are the top two SA sides. Reds and Brumbies to dominate in Oz. Bulls appear to have neither an improved gameplan nor improved playing roster to really threaten.
16 Jan 2013, 00:30 am
@Robzim-3: “Sharks were never going to be in it, everybody with half a braincell knows that, so Marks’ jinx does not even matter as far as they are concerned.”
Hehe. I have a feeling this may come back to haunt you… and then we can all have a good laugh at you.
16 Jan 2013, 02:22 am
same thing every year with Natal and WP full of Boks but always end up short.
I am picking the final will be in Pretoria
16 Jan 2013, 02:23 am
The Waratahs will be the surprise package this year. They’ve finally got themselves a very good coach. I suspect they and the Brumbies will be fighting for top spot in the Aus conference.
16 Jan 2013, 02:56 am
@greatest13gerber-13: maybe on a big screen
16 Jan 2013, 04:20 am
@Ian-14:
Hi Ian…don’t know much of Mike Cheika, but he has the look of a hard man and with Darryl Gibson as assistant it looks like a good combo. I think the Rugby community, especially Sa are going to get a big shock on how good Israel Folau is…..a massive coup for Nsw and Australia. Oh nearly forgot Hooper….awesome player…..I agree the Warratahs will definitely be a surprise packet.
16 Jan 2013, 04:34 am
Happy New Year to all the keolings, hope you all doing well with the NY resolutions…
@Ian-14:
Howzit Ian, you the Aussie Ian from long time ago or a newbie to the blog?
I heard the Worrytahs coach talk on The Rugby Club last year and he did come across as a knowledgable and level headed coach but my understanding of NSW rugby is that there are a lot more needed than a good coach. They will do better than last year but the jury will have to wait a while on them.
As for keo and his early season trolling for hits, should have put a fullstop after January in your second sentence and left the rest of the article for say end of February.
16 Jan 2013, 04:36 am
@Dilligafrican-15:
They have big screen in Tswane now?
When did they get electricity?
16 Jan 2013, 04:40 am
@Te Rangatira-16:
Howzit TR, IF is a big unit and obviously have the skill set to make a success of rugby. Unfortunately the track record of converts are pretty poor so I will wait and see if he can make the transition.
16 Jan 2013, 05:28 am
@Slartibartfast-19:
Hi Slarti.. all the best for the new year. I think Folau will do well in his first year but alot will depend on the coaching he receives.The Warratahs are crying out for a superstar and heres hoping they ease Folau in and don’t pin any hopes of turning him into someone like Sbw straight away……I think that will come with the talent he possesses.
16 Jan 2013, 05:46 am
@Te Rangatira-20:
Half the problem with the Tahs, they all think they superstars but got little to back it up. But I do think Oz will put out 3 good teams this year.
16 Jan 2013, 06:21 am
@Slartibartfast-21:
Howzit Slarti. Will you be doing the usual honours of putting a pool togerther for superbru? After all you’re the main man.
Cheers.
16 Jan 2013, 06:25 am
We didn’t require keo to tell us that the Sharks are going to take the S15 this year.
Sharks supporters having been telling us the whole festive season that it’s a done deal.
16 Jan 2013, 06:34 am
@I am a stormer-22:
Just give me a little time, should be done soon…
16 Jan 2013, 07:02 am
@greatest13gerber-13:
i think the bulls could definitely go alll the way to a final too but am not 100% certain. the quarters and semi’s placements and home/away will of course be crucial.
16 Jan 2013, 07:12 am
it’s OFFICIAL….the Sharks are OVERWHELMING favourites to win the Super rugby competition.
16 Jan 2013, 07:21 am
@Ian-14: the Waratahs had Ewen Mckenzie & achieved zilch with his brilliant mind at their disposal& they subsequently fired him.
with players like Halangahu running the 10 the Tahs are going nowhere…9. Mckibbin 10. Halangahu. pffft
16 Jan 2013, 07:26 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-25: Indeed. 16/1 odds for the Bulls to win it.
Very good odds, if you’re a Bulls supporter looking to place a bet on your team.
16 Jan 2013, 07:29 am
@Slartibartfast-21:
Howzit Slarti, will you be setting up the keo Superbru pool again this year?
16 Jan 2013, 07:31 am
i have already said the sharks are the team to beat this year, so this is not a surprising prediction from keo…
sharks certainly do have the best overall squad…
but the stormers and bulls are not that far behind in terms of quality and depth… (the cheetahs and kings have less depth)… so one or two slips by any team is going to cost them dearly…
say what anyone likes… winning the south african conference is going to be absolutely critical this season…
sharks and (a good number of) their fans need to stop the pretense that the conference trophy doesn’t matter… they’re going to have to unequivocally and proudly make it their first major goal of the year… they’re gonna have to wrest it from the stormers grasp and hold it aloft at the end of the regular season… they won’t win the super trophy if they insist winning the conference trophy is of no importance…
ed moses didn’t become the best 400-hurdler in history by focusing on or dreaming about crossing the finishing line… he only ever focused on each individual one of his famous 13 steps between hurdles… knowing that if he executed each individual stride to perfection the result should take care of itself…
this is what the eventual top south african super team is going to have to do…
focus on one game at a time…
16 Jan 2013, 07:34 am
My opinion is that the Lions stand more chance of winning the Super Rugby title than the Sharts do, every year there is a hype around their squad, playing style and talent but the coaches get it horribly wrong in selections and tactics first up which ruins their season, same coaches, same players i dont foresee a change in the future.
16 Jan 2013, 07:35 am
@Taahirah-28:
There’s a reason they are 16 to 1, they have no show of winning it.
16 Jan 2013, 07:36 am
Spies/Hougaard/Steyn will not win you anything this year.
16 Jan 2013, 07:41 am
@MacToogie-29:
The runner just left with your invite, sealed in an envelope on his cleft stick…should be there soon.
16 Jan 2013, 07:42 am
@Taahirah-28:
yes.
they are more competitive than otherwise made out to be and will certainly make the playoffs.
from there its anybodies game, definiteyl worth a bet.
reds also have good odds for a win.
sharks and stormers offer much less and guaranteed to slip at the end, so a pointless bet.
16 Jan 2013, 07:42 am
@NZINCHINA-33: Greyling will though!
16 Jan 2013, 07:43 am
@Slartibartfast-34:
already joined =) thanks mate, i have a very strict selection of pools which i join.
16 Jan 2013, 07:43 am
And the pajama donkie was first in…ook die enigste tyd wat hy ooit eerste sal wees…!
16 Jan 2013, 07:46 am
Sharks and Stormers have the best squads of the S.A teams and the two of them will battle it out for top spot. Sharks are slow starters while the Stormers have dominated the S.A conference since its inception. Will be an interesting battle.
16 Jan 2013, 07:46 am
@MacToogie-37:
Pleasure!
For any newcomers and previous players who had to change their email addresses under the witness protection plan, the details are as follows:
Come join my Super Rugby prediction game on SuperBru! It’s free and loads of fun. Just click here:
http://www.superbru.com/superrugby/pool.asp?p=11047241
Pool name: Hore set for hefty ban…
Pool code: busycoon
16 Jan 2013, 07:47 am
@Slartibartfast-34:
hey slarty…
please post the details here…
quite a few people have been asking about your superb pool over the holidays…
16 Jan 2013, 07:47 am
@NZINCHINA-32: I know. Im still gonna through some money at it though.
Silly really.
16 Jan 2013, 07:47 am
hehehe…
thanks
16 Jan 2013, 07:49 am
@Slartibartfast-38: Did you send out the invite on bru?
16 Jan 2013, 07:49 am
@NZINCHINA-33: My most pressing concern is not the 8/9/10 combo.
Its the number of scrum penalties given away by Dean and Werner. If we can short that out we will be competitive.
16 Jan 2013, 07:50 am
@Taahirah-42: through = throw
16 Jan 2013, 07:54 am
@Slartibartfast-40: Thanks man
16 Jan 2013, 07:55 am
@Taahirah-45: short=sort
16 Jan 2013, 07:59 am
Have people started leaving the Hore nest?
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