The year of the Sharks
16 Jan 2013
MARK KEOHANE is picking the Sharks, Reds and Canes as the 2013 Super Rugby conference winners.
It may appear madness to pick a winner of the tournament in January because this expanded version means so much can change post the June internationals, but my money is on the Sharks to finally win the competition that has taunted and teased their supporters but never pleased them.
My pick is the Sharks to take the South African conference and have the crucial advantage of hosting teams in the play-offs. Home ground advantage is usually the recipe for title success, although the Sharks have proven to be the exception. In 2007 they hosted the Bulls and lost in the last minute. In last year’s Currie Cup final a youthful Western Province thumped the hosts.
That’s history.
John Plumtree’s picked the most balanced squad among South African teams and the Sharks, in squad depth, are the strongest in the competition.
Player management and rotation is the key to success in this tournament, as is starting and finishing well.
The Sharks have a good home draw and they will make it count.
The Stormers will also be in the top six, but the Bulls are going to have to improve dramatically in terms of consistency to make the play-offs. Realistically, and don’t forget they are my favourite team, I think the quality of squad depth and starting player is more a top-eight than a top-four squad. The Cheetahs will always be a favourite to entertain and will always have the capability to knock over a top-four team, especially in Bloemfontein, on a one-off but the player depth has never been there to seriously challenge for the play-offs. The Cheetahs select from Griquas and the Free State Currie Cup Cheetahs, and while Griquas always show promise in the Currie Cup many of those players limitations are exposed over the course of a competition that now is the most demanding in terms of longevity, intensity and travel in the world. The Kings, in their debut season, will do well to win three matches.
The post-World Cup blues suffered by many teams is not a factor this year and 2013 and 2014 are the years in-between World Cups when Super Rugby is a priority. In 2015 it is a preparation to the game’s biggest prize, the World Cup.
Jake White’s Brumbies were an unknown in 2012 and they surprised many. White did a fantastic job in restoring rugby union pride in Canberra, but the second-season syndrome is something he will be all too aware of, especially with the Reds in a healthier position in terms of player availability.
The Tahs can’t be as awful as they were a year ago although they too look a year away from a play-off. I see them more mid-table.
In New Zealand the heat will be on the Chiefs to show last year was not a one-hit wonder. They’re good enough to make the play-offs as defending champions but they don’t command the same presence among the backs with no Sonny Bill Williams to occupy the minds of the opposition. The New Zealand conference is the toughest of the three, but there won’t be a miracle in year one from Blues coach John Kirwan. There will be hope and improved performances but the Blues are a three-year project more than a first season sensation. They will be the worst performing of the New Zealand sides in terms of league points even if they will show enough to be applauded more than condemned.
The Crusaders will be contenders, more so on history than on current strength but Dan Carter alone among the backs and Kieran Read, leader of the pack in Richie McCaw’s absence through a sabbatical, lack the support in numbers to speak of the Crusaders in awe.
The Highlanders will be good, potentially the second best among the Kiwi teams, and the team to beat in New Zealand will be Conrad Smith’s Hurricanes.
345 Comments
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16 Jan 2013, 07:59 am
@Sasuke-48: Indeed.
:blush:
16 Jan 2013, 08:00 am
@Sasuke-49: its on 24750 or thereabout. I really do feel we need to get her to 25,000.
16 Jan 2013, 08:02 am
@Taahirah-46:
short = sort…I hope!
16 Jan 2013, 08:09 am
i dont blame the couple, i blame the idiot gamekeeper:
‘Staan net ’n bietjie nader’
http://www.beeld.com/Suid-Afrika/Nuus/Staan-net-n-bietjie-nader-20130114
16 Jan 2013, 08:11 am
@Taahirah-42:
Good luck keeps the season a little more interesting
@Taahirah-45:
Yip old Greyling gives a few away, he also gets caught offside way too often
16 Jan 2013, 08:12 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-53:
Were you happy with Lances confession?
16 Jan 2013, 08:15 am
@NZINCHINA-55:
i havn’t seen it yet but i dont buy his PR trickery.
16 Jan 2013, 08:20 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-56:
Yip because that’s all it is, your old mate KEO is picking the Sharks and Canes I can’t see the Canes winning the NZ conference.
16 Jan 2013, 08:22 am
I dont mind Keo predicting this sort of thing. In fact, toward the end of last season he actually started to pick them right.
What is far worse than the Keo prediction is the kiss of death from HG. Fark me, that oke pics them wrong.
16 Jan 2013, 08:26 am
Screw the Sharks…. STORMERS FTW!
16 Jan 2013, 08:26 am
The Canes? They don’t have the mental resolve. If you want to pick an outsider in NZ conference go Highlanders, but Chiefs will remain favourites.
16 Jan 2013, 08:29 am
@Taahirah-51: and then kill it before it breeds
16 Jan 2013, 08:36 am
@NZINCHINA-57:
i dont think they will win the NZ conference either.
neither will the sharks win ours, nothing suggests they’ve acquired the few extra percent needed.
they are very much like the chiefs of 2009 good enough to MAYBE make a final but not good enough to win one like the chiefs of 2012 were, so whats needed is to make a few personnel changes in the playing and coaching depts (sama as the chiefs did).
16 Jan 2013, 08:36 am
@PissAnt-60: Id rather back the Blues as an outsider for the NZ conference.
Zeros to Heros.
Would be kinda cool.
16 Jan 2013, 08:38 am
Sharks having the kiss of death blown at them again.
16 Jan 2013, 08:39 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-62:
The Hammer has instilled some good discipline into the Canes franchise and they will have a superb backline full of stars but maybe a season or two too early, if not the Sharkies then who??
16 Jan 2013, 08:39 am
Sharks unfortunately outside of JDP and BDP have a huge problem in lack of quality depth in the front-row, have average locks outside of the youngster PSD… they’ll continue to play oldies like Ndungane, have average 9′s and serious trouble in the mid-field should Steyn continue to be injury prone…
Nup I cannot see them being anywhere near the top teams in the comp… let alone the weak South African conference with the Kings having arrived, the Cheetah’s well being the Cheetahs and the Bulls leaking quality players left right and centre…
16 Jan 2013, 08:44 am
For the first time in a very long time I am actually hopeful for the season. We really havent had as balanced a squad as this for quite some time. The Sharks are relatively injury free and the all important squad depth is looking good.
This was the team that played the first game against the Stormers last year:
15 Riaan Viljoen, 14 Louis Ludik, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Patrick Lambie, 9 Frederic Michalak, 8 Keegan Daniel (capt), 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Jacques Botes, 5 Ross Skeate, 4 Steven Sykes, 3 Wiehahn Herbst, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Dale Chadwick.
Replacements: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Anton Bresler, 19 Lubabalo Mtembu, 20 Charl McLeod, 21 Marius Joubert, 22 Paul Jordaan
Pretty average.
This could be the side to run out this year.
15 Ludik, 14 JP, 13 Jordaan, 12 Steyn, 11 Mvovo, 10 Lambie, 9 Reinach/Mcleod, 8 Daniel c, 7 Alberts, 6 Coetzee, 5 Anton Bresler, 4 PSDT/Juandre Marias, 3 Jannie, 2 Burden, 1 Beast.
With Bissie and Kanko to return shortly. Good balanced side.
16 Jan 2013, 08:46 am
@Taahirah-63:
No there I agree with him, Blues are busy rebuilding. However Kirwin could pull a Jake White and surprise first season in charge but I just don’t think he is that good a coach.
@bryce_in_oz-66:
Tight 5 is a worry for the Sharks. Will also be interested to see who will partner Lambie in the 9/10 combo. As a combo, I think McLeod who is more of a continuity player better compliments Lambie’s game although I reckon that Reinach lad is much sharper at the base.
16 Jan 2013, 08:47 am
@bryce_in_oz-66:
Oh and of course its already confirmed Bismarck will miss the opening matches which includes a couple of crucial local derbies.
16 Jan 2013, 08:49 am
@NZINCHINA-65:
its between the sharks, bulls and stormers (not by choice).
i call bulls.
16 Jan 2013, 08:49 am
@PissAnt-68: I reckon Reinach could be a Bok this year. He is def going 2 be the preferred halfback option in Sup Rug
16 Jan 2013, 08:50 am
The amount of disrespect dished out to the Stormers and WP is alarming.
Granted the Sharks played the most all round rugby however we are talking here about a team that has been conference leaders 2 years in a row and finally managed to break the cup final hodoo last year and all Keo can say is “The Stormers will also be in the top six,”
Really?
16 Jan 2013, 08:51 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-70: based on what do you call the bulls?
on what rational argument?
16 Jan 2013, 08:54 am
@John Galt-67: well i guess its a good thing the game is not played on paper
16 Jan 2013, 08:58 am
@keo-71:
Looking how alarmingly short we are on quality scrummies at the moment or players out of form I won’t be surprised Keo. The lad is very sharp with one of the better cleans from the base I have seen in a while. You might be right.
16 Jan 2013, 09:02 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-70:
In hindsight it was a silly question..
16 Jan 2013, 09:02 am
@papaown-72: I would rather be disrespected and mentioned as an ‘after thought’, than be installed as the uberfuckingguaranteedabsolutefaves to win the whole damn thing
Guppies don’t do well as faves….
Stormers don’t do well as faves….
I know where the Stormers would rather be in terms of ‘expert opinion and prediction’, and it’s NOT where the Guppieloos have been cemented
16 Jan 2013, 09:05 am
@papaown-73:
with a new team the bull were competitive last season despite morne being off form for large periods, even making the playoffs so i think they will gel better this season.
they were never written up to win amy of the titles they’ve won so far.
16 Jan 2013, 09:07 am
@NZINCHINA-76:
yes, you’re right
bulls should win it
16 Jan 2013, 09:09 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-77: yeah i guess, better to avoid the Keo curse
16 Jan 2013, 09:16 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-79:
The Blues will crush the Bulls…then march on to Super Rugby glory 2013…the true powerhouse of Nz Rugby will take back what is rightfully ours…
16 Jan 2013, 09:18 am
@Slartibartfast-40:
Thank goodness, a Keo superbru group.
Was wondering whether there was one.
Great stuff
16 Jan 2013, 09:23 am
Going by the history of Super Rugby it’s way too early to predict anything with conviction, so more of a ‘stir’ article to get supporters fired up for the new season.
Honestly I’m more excited to see what style of rugby the Stormers will dish up this year.
Less tackling and more running asseblief!
Stormers by 10.
16 Jan 2013, 09:23 am
Stormers lack a quality opensider.
Sharks also have the same problem.
Bulls need a fully fit Steggmann…..and their challenge is accomodating the avarage Spies and 1 dimensional M Steyn.
Stormers have hooker issues that need to be properly resolved, cant mess around with that position.
The integration of the 5 Lions into the complex Stormers defensive systems will be crucial, if AC can get that right, and players like A Bekker can stay fit , Stormers will be a good bet, despite a hell of a first 5 game schedule!
Sharks my biggest fear……not convinced Bulls are a real threat for title .
16 Jan 2013, 09:25 am
After Michael Jackson went on Oprah she asked us to believe that he never slept with little boys, bleeched his skin or had any nose jobs.
After Lance Armstrong went on Oprah she asked us to believe he never cheated, took performance enhancing drugs to help beat cancer and was innocent.
Coming up: Oprah tells us The Sharks will win a trophy!.
16 Jan 2013, 09:28 am
@grant10-84: I concur
{spoken in solemn judicial voice}
16 Jan 2013, 09:28 am
The Sharks are overwhelming favourites to win the conference!!!
16 Jan 2013, 09:28 am
@Te Rangatira-81:
hahaha
thats not going to happen.
16 Jan 2013, 09:29 am
Sharks, stormers and bulls all stand a chance to to top the SA conference.
As usual injuries could and probably will play a role in determining the final outcome.
Good luck to all.
And I hope the Kings can surprise some of the teams and get a few wins. (doubt it though)
16 Jan 2013, 09:31 am
@grant10-84: They don’t have a specialized open-sider either.
They use the hybrids of Bismark and Keegan, just as we use Fourie and Duane/Kolisi.
But all in all the Sharks look menacing but it’s a long year.
16 Jan 2013, 09:34 am
@grant10-84:
Maybe they should set target games for Andries this year, only play him vs top half teams and resist playing him back to back games, or pull him off earlier when the game’s relatively safe?
Either way they’ll have to manage Dries Bekker much better this year.
Sharks lack bite when Bismarck’s out, hope Stormers play them at least once before he returns. (haven’t seen the match schedules yet)
16 Jan 2013, 09:36 am
Dont know what all the emotion is about…
Keo is right with most of his picks…
Reds and Brumbies for Aus…
For the sheepshaggers, I reckon the Canes are a dangerous dark horse more than a surprise winner… Highlanders will be the team to beat and Saders, Chiefs there, thereabouts…
For the SA conference, without doubt the Dynamite are in the strongest position to win… Keo is 110% right…
Funnily enough I dont reckon they will win the “conference”, not that they have to… As the Brokebacks have shown the last few years, being conference “title holders” means farkall in context of winning the damn thing or even getting to the final in the first place…
A home game in the knockout phase will see the Sharks through to finally winning Super Rugby and ultimately relinquishing their Buffalo Bills title as “Best Side Never to Have Won”…
BOOM!
16 Jan 2013, 09:38 am
Must say, I also feel it could be the sharks year albeit I think they are thin at lock.
Frans Steyn could be the missing piece to their puzzle.
Stormers also have a very strong squad but I just can’t see them winning superrugby with grant at 10, they need to play elton.
History suggests that a team with a good 8/9/10 axis always does well with a pack that wins them ball.
In this regard the bulls aren’t far off. So long as players like Flip find another level as well as our flankers and outside backs recapture their best form. I’m quite keen to see what looks to have been a decent break for most of the bulls…for the first time in eons, albeit has done for them, albeit, this will only manifest itself later on in the season.
16 Jan 2013, 09:41 am
Ye the Sharks are a safe bet this year.
Im putting a lazy 20 (NZinChina?) on them for sure.
16 Jan 2013, 09:42 am
@stormersboy-87:
This is the Sharks’ year.
Defo.
16 Jan 2013, 09:44 am
@wpstormerbok-91: Stormers do play them without Bissie, in Durbs.
Guppies might have some serious lineout and ‘deck playing’ issues in the first few rounds.
Hopefully Stormers will box clever for the Guppie game…..
Play Deon Fourie at 6 in Durban…….. expose their weakness (as it WILL still be a weakness when the tournie kicks off).
Unless Plumtree pulls a rabbit out of the hat, I would attack the guppies in the lineouts (their own lineouts) and on the deck all day….
16 Jan 2013, 09:46 am
@stormersboy-90: correct….that is why Bismarck and D Fourie are crucial players for Sharks and Stormers….
what I would give for Flo or Brussow!
16 Jan 2013, 09:46 am
@papaown-73:
Based on the fact that they were second in the SA conference last year plus the top try scorers in the entire competition… This team is as good as any in the competition:
15 Kichner
14 Engelbrecht
13 Mapoe
12 Olivier
11 Basson
10 Morne
09 Hougaard
8 Spies
7 J Potgieter
6 Stegmann
5 J Kruger
4 F vd Merwe
3 W Kruger
2 Chilliboy
1 Greyling
16 Wepenaar
17 M vd Merwe
18 Willemse
19 A Botha
20 Vermaak
21 Fouche
22 Venter
They also happen to be the only team with an all Springbok (capped players) starting line-up.
16 Jan 2013, 09:46 am
the year of the shark!
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