The year of the Sharks
16 Jan 2013
MARK KEOHANE is picking the Sharks, Reds and Canes as the 2013 Super Rugby conference winners.
It may appear madness to pick a winner of the tournament in January because this expanded version means so much can change post the June internationals, but my money is on the Sharks to finally win the competition that has taunted and teased their supporters but never pleased them.
My pick is the Sharks to take the South African conference and have the crucial advantage of hosting teams in the play-offs. Home ground advantage is usually the recipe for title success, although the Sharks have proven to be the exception. In 2007 they hosted the Bulls and lost in the last minute. In last year’s Currie Cup final a youthful Western Province thumped the hosts.
That’s history.
John Plumtree’s picked the most balanced squad among South African teams and the Sharks, in squad depth, are the strongest in the competition.
Player management and rotation is the key to success in this tournament, as is starting and finishing well.
The Sharks have a good home draw and they will make it count.
The Stormers will also be in the top six, but the Bulls are going to have to improve dramatically in terms of consistency to make the play-offs. Realistically, and don’t forget they are my favourite team, I think the quality of squad depth and starting player is more a top-eight than a top-four squad. The Cheetahs will always be a favourite to entertain and will always have the capability to knock over a top-four team, especially in Bloemfontein, on a one-off but the player depth has never been there to seriously challenge for the play-offs. The Cheetahs select from Griquas and the Free State Currie Cup Cheetahs, and while Griquas always show promise in the Currie Cup many of those players limitations are exposed over the course of a competition that now is the most demanding in terms of longevity, intensity and travel in the world. The Kings, in their debut season, will do well to win three matches.
The post-World Cup blues suffered by many teams is not a factor this year and 2013 and 2014 are the years in-between World Cups when Super Rugby is a priority. In 2015 it is a preparation to the game’s biggest prize, the World Cup.
Jake White’s Brumbies were an unknown in 2012 and they surprised many. White did a fantastic job in restoring rugby union pride in Canberra, but the second-season syndrome is something he will be all too aware of, especially with the Reds in a healthier position in terms of player availability.
The Tahs can’t be as awful as they were a year ago although they too look a year away from a play-off. I see them more mid-table.
In New Zealand the heat will be on the Chiefs to show last year was not a one-hit wonder. They’re good enough to make the play-offs as defending champions but they don’t command the same presence among the backs with no Sonny Bill Williams to occupy the minds of the opposition. The New Zealand conference is the toughest of the three, but there won’t be a miracle in year one from Blues coach John Kirwan. There will be hope and improved performances but the Blues are a three-year project more than a first season sensation. They will be the worst performing of the New Zealand sides in terms of league points even if they will show enough to be applauded more than condemned.
The Crusaders will be contenders, more so on history than on current strength but Dan Carter alone among the backs and Kieran Read, leader of the pack in Richie McCaw’s absence through a sabbatical, lack the support in numbers to speak of the Crusaders in awe.
The Highlanders will be good, potentially the second best among the Kiwi teams, and the team to beat in New Zealand will be Conrad Smith’s Hurricanes.
345 Comments
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16 Jan 2013, 09:47 am
Top 6 in no particular order:
Chiefs
Highlanders
Crusaders
Reds
Sharks
Stormers
16 Jan 2013, 09:52 am
@WP-Forever-95: Of course. However, if by some freakish twist of fate it isn’t, the following are on standby to be paraded in the post mortem:
1. Travel factor….. (It is ridiculous to expect the guppies to travel so far for a game)
2. Food poisoning
3. Injury….. I feel that poor Bissie might should most of the blame should the guppies not win this thing. “But iffffffffffffffffffffff we had Bissie…….” (and if sharks could fly)
4. A north/south conspiracy……
5. Bad weather in Durban
6. Good weather in Durban
7. Match officials
8. Jealousy
9. Inferior hotels whilst in NZ and OZ coupled with faulty travel socks
10. The Illuminati
11. Obama
12. Climate change
13. Cheating opposition
14. Not getting tickets for the Bieber concert
Anything I’ve forgotten?
16 Jan 2013, 09:55 am
@PissAnt-100:
highlanders?
And I am not sure the reds are a sure bet either?
And Crusaders? Isn’t richie away this year or something? Not exactly sure on the particulars but the crusaders could well be an “aging” side in some important positions? I have a feeling people are putting their name up there based on reputation and not neccessarily strengh?
16 Jan 2013, 09:55 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-96:
D Fourie unlikely to play 6 considering Scarra was recently injured in training and Liebenberg is still sidelined with neck injury.
16 Jan 2013, 09:57 am
@John Galt-103: I was not aware of Scarra’s injury. Serious?
Although….against the guppies, ET could play for the Stormers at 2 without much stress
Only kiddddddddddddddddddddddddddding.
Deon at 2 is fine as well….but on the field he must be….for 80 minutes.
16 Jan 2013, 10:00 am
@Brigadier Van Zyl-102:
Highlanders made the best off-season buys from any NZ team and did not miss the play-offs by much last year.
Reds are the best of a poor bunch, they will win their conference and be assured of a play-off.
Saders did not see much of Richie and Dan last year either if memory serves, they will be there.
16 Jan 2013, 10:01 am
@PissAnt-100: yip
16 Jan 2013, 10:03 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-96:
If Eben continues where he left off last season in terms of dominating line-outs as he did on the EOYT the Stormers could have an extra dimension to their tactical play much like the Bulls had in Matfield.
What do you think will happen with Kolisi with Schalk back?
Im hoping AC will employ some sort of rotation between them, or wont they be competing for the same position?
16 Jan 2013, 10:04 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-101:
HAHAHAHAHAHA, i wish i could star this post, Keo, give us like buttons bru!!!!
16 Jan 2013, 10:06 am
@PissAnt-105:
The Highlanders have the best running first five in Nz rugby in Lima Sopoaga imo…if he can stay injuryfree….then they will make the playoffs
16 Jan 2013, 10:11 am
@Te Rangatira-109:
I am hoping for big things from my favourite NZ franchise! But picks at this stage is a bit of a nothingness. Things in SR hardly ever go according to plan.
16 Jan 2013, 10:11 am
Still not enjoying this Super Rugby format , Sharks , Bulls , Stormers or any NZ side could win Aus conference easily.
16 Jan 2013, 10:12 am
Keo, what’s changed so dramatically at the Canes that you’re punting them to win the conference? I think you discount the Chiefs too easily. They’ll feel Sonny Bill’s absence but they’ve always produced in the back end of the comp and they always offer a solid pack.
16 Jan 2013, 10:13 am
Rotation will be key this year…
‘stormers first 5 games are massive….Away Bulls
away Sharks
home hiefs, Crusaders and Brumbies…..
Fark….not an easy start…
16 Jan 2013, 10:17 am
Nothing wrong with the Sharks lineout or second row this year…
Franco
Kanko
Bresler
Marais
Du Toit
And I suspect a few games with Alberts at lock too… Only the Bulls can match this depth…
16 Jan 2013, 10:18 am
@grant10-113:
big games but early games are generally a little bit of a lottery.
16 Jan 2013, 10:19 am
I reckon Kyle Cooper will be the Sharks surprise package this year… A real mongrel hooker and lineout throwing not too shabby either.
16 Jan 2013, 10:23 am
keo has it all wrong – again.
we all know stormers were the greatest last season – conference winners with all their stars injured.
i mean, how many wankfests did we witness on this site last season over these two amazing facts – never mind the incredible defence.
now they have imported more players for this season – and some good ones too.
how can they possibly not dominate again?
16 Jan 2013, 10:25 am
I see Coenie, Goosen and most other Cheetahs should be fit for the opener against Sharks…..
Banana skin game…..Goosen vs Lambie….whoa!!
16 Jan 2013, 10:25 am
@charo-117: Stormers to be Conference “Title Holders” again…
Because of course, it is SO important…
16 Jan 2013, 10:29 am
@PissAnt-110:
Yep…all hypothetical…but someone out there picked the Chiefs last year based on Sbw,Cruden and Wayne Smith…so there is a chance of nailing it…..
16 Jan 2013, 10:30 am
@wpstormerbok-107: Amongst the loosies in general I reckon we will see some serious rotation….
Elstadt, Rhodes, Carr (depending on when he regains full fitness, don’t think he has just yet?), Kolisi, Burger, Vermeulen, D Fourie at a push will all need game time.
Elstadt and Rhodes can wear the 4 jersey too (and hopefully Eben is rested at times….), but just as well the 7. Burger captaining throws a spanner in the works………but: no ways Burger will play 80 minutes this season, and let’s see how the knee holds up – This Schalk is not the young Schalk who miraculously rested off a broken neck….
Honestly though: I would hope to see some out of the box thinking at times, good rotation and a massive focus on EACH individuals strengths and where those can best be utilised.
@Heavens Game-114: Super stuff that HG. Who will be throwing in to all of these Bok quality jumpers?
16 Jan 2013, 10:31 am
16 Jan 2013, 10:33 am
Actually I don’t see the Stormers making the top 6 this year.
16 Jan 2013, 10:34 am
@grant10-118:
Goosen the more naturally gifted/instinctive player but Lambie’s got more experience and maybe this is the year he starts putting it together on a more regular basis.
I hope the Goose is busy bulking a bit, I’d like to see him add 3kgs of muscle over the next year and a half (taking into account the amount of rugby he’s going to play) to protect his body better against the knocks, ala Dan Carter, not too muscular but just enough to stand his ground, most of the time.
16 Jan 2013, 10:38 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-121:
nizaam is fully fit… seems schalk may not be…
Players back from injury:
Rynhardt Elstadt (flank – chest)
Siya Kolisi (flank – thumb)
Nizaam Carr (No.8 – knee)
Bryan Habana (wing – knee)
Set to return to full training next week:
Andries Bekker (lock – toe)
Schalk Burger (flank – knee)
Dewaldt Duvenage (scrumhalf – broken leg)
Nic Groom (scrumhalf – knee)
Other injury news:
- Prop Deon Carstens (neck) – should be ready for action in Round One of the Super Rugby competition.
- Hooker Tiaan Liebenberg (back) – he will attend the camp in Hermanus and do fitness and line-out throwing but he cannot take contact.
- Hooker Scarra Ntubeni (shoulder) – somebody fell on him and he landed awkwardly at training this week. He will be re-assessed after four weeks but will hopefully not require surgery.
- Flyhalf Gary van Aswegen (ankle) – will be conservative with his return which should be around mid-February.
- Centre JP du Plessis (back) – his injury flared up and he will take it easy over the next four weeks but could be out for a while longer. He will be re-assessed after four weeks.
- Centre Marcel Brache (neck) – still out for some time after undergoing a neck operation late last year.
16 Jan 2013, 10:38 am
@grant10-118: 8,9,10 for Sharks key to winning that game and the tournament this year…
If Kanko starts like he ended Super rugby last year, one of the scrummies come to the party, and Lambie plays like 2010 then…
BOOM!
16 Jan 2013, 10:38 am
@Heavens Game-119:
Yep Hg…the eventual Super title holder will come from whoever tops either of the three Conferences….
16 Jan 2013, 10:39 am
scarra sounds way more serious than they’re saying…
pity…
really like him and the jack russel way he plays…
16 Jan 2013, 10:43 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-121:
Agree, we have a relatively settled squad with a good mix of youth and experience and a couple special footballers in the forwards and backs.
It’s safe the say the coaches have the basics figured out so yes it’s time they become more inventive as they understand their squad strengths and weaknesses much better now and with all those heartbreaking knockouts we suffered will eventually count for something.
16 Jan 2013, 10:44 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-104:
This is from another site.
‘Ntubeni has been sidelined for a month after suffering a training accident where one of his team mates fell on his shoulder’
In all seriousness, the Sharks battle at lineout time wont be because of a lack of quality locks.
They finally have some talent and depth at lock. The inconsistency will come from Bissie not being there.
Burden and Cooper were both shown up to be not entirely competent in this department last year.
Ditto for the breakdown. No Bissie and no natural 6 in the side will mean they may battle a bit. The Stormers might battle at the breakdown as well, for the same reason.
16 Jan 2013, 10:45 am
i’d start with siya and let schalk come on in the second half…
but don’t know if ac would start without his captain…
16 Jan 2013, 10:49 am
@Heavens Game-119:
not to mention the incredible pedigree…..
packaged as smoersnoek?
16 Jan 2013, 11:01 am
@Te Rangatira-127: Huzzit Rango…Not this year…
Highlanders vs Sharks… final.
Dunedin or Kings Park, Black and White will overcome…
16 Jan 2013, 11:03 am
@charo-132: Whats that smell, again…? Ah, the Fish Dorpie’s “Champion” Team…
16 Jan 2013, 11:05 am
Stormers favorites to win the conference trophy.
16 Jan 2013, 11:07 am
My Province brothers are deluded -forget Bissie -they have Hadebe (more potential than Ntubeni) Cooper and Burden . The thing is that between Bismarck and the rest of the hookers in the world ,let alone SA, is miles of daylight.
16 Jan 2013, 11:08 am
@gunther-135: Of course they are… Didnt know it was a trophy yet… Thought it was a “Title”…
16 Jan 2013, 11:12 am
@Heavens Game-134: No. That would be the rotting rainbow ‘special occasion’ sandwiches, you fellas hauled out for the S15 final last year, and then again for the Currie Cup final…..
Fish paste does not freeze well, and after 9 months, the bread won’t be that delish either……
The only smell wafting up your way from the Cape….is the schweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet smell of success.
16 Jan 2013, 11:14 am
@Heavens Game-133:
Good thanks Hg….don’t know if the Highlanders can make it to the final but with the import of some hardnosed professionals who may rid the side of that inferiority complex, yeah they’re a chance, especially if their backs fire at end of year.
I can see your Side doing well if they can play that continuity game backed up by the hard stuff that got them to the final last year, still think winning the Conference will be the key for them if they’re to lift the trophy.
16 Jan 2013, 11:14 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-101: Chrissakes thats childish…
Farken little witch of salem…
16 Jan 2013, 11:16 am
like sprinkling flakes in the goldfish bowl…
16 Jan 2013, 11:17 am
@Te Rangatira-139: Last year was one step too far on the road… This year if they can get one knockout game at home it should be just enough…
Sharks perform better with some backs against the wall stuff… A home final will spoil them… Naah, just enough is all they need… Then the preccciouussss is ours…
16 Jan 2013, 11:17 am
@John Galt-130: Ta
You should worry less about the lineout and more about HG’s ‘predictions’…… He’s like the ‘Black Widow’ of Sharks aspirations. Remember, this is the man who believes Romney is sitting in the withuis.
@ufo-125: Ta
@wpstormerbok-129: Hope you are right…….but we must accept that the Sharks are going to win this whole damn thing. HG and Keo said so.
Anyone in Hermanus who can gatecrash a Stormers training session and see who’s running and who ain’t?
16 Jan 2013, 11:19 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-104:Is that because ET lists hooker on his résumé?
16 Jan 2013, 11:20 am
@Heavens Game-140: But you lurvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv me anyways
(PS: I wouldn’t want you to call Puma or S_L ‘childish now….Most of those were gifts from their distinguished stable of ‘why the guppies lost’ excuses…tsktsk.)
16 Jan 2013, 11:24 am
@Heavens Game-114: lots of depth, but average at best.
16 Jan 2013, 11:25 am
Carr is still testing that knee…lots of strapping required …Koster may be missed…
16 Jan 2013, 11:26 am
1. Stormers
2. Crusaders
3. Chiefs
4, Sharks
5. Reds
6. Brumbies
16 Jan 2013, 11:27 am
Don Armand also a very talented player….can also add value at 4 and 7 for Stormers…
Plent of decent 8 s and 7 s….
Not a bloody 6 in sight…..
Convince Deon Fourie to continue there AC …then we got a class opensider as well…
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