Wales will turn doom to delight
1 Feb 2013
MARK KEOHANE writes that France have been consistent and England were magical against the All Blacks, but it’s Wales that will win the Six Nations.
The Six Nations is as good a tournament as the Rugby Championship – and the quality of rugby is no less.
England’s whipping of the All Blacks, France’s thrashing of Australia and Ireland’s hammering of the Pumas has added to the intrigue of this season’s Six Nations.
The exception here is the Springboks. They won all three matches overseas in November, but they beat Ireland 16-12, beat Scotland 21-11 and beat England 16-15. Two of the three wins could have been defeats.
The Southern Hemisphere teams have nothing to be arrogant about. Neither do the supporters.
I have always believed the Heineken Cup to be a superior tournament to Super Rugby because of the tournament structure and because so many teams have the capacity to win it. In Super Rugby too often you can pick four of the six play-of finalists before a ball is kicked.
The added interest in the Six Nations is the fact that England will host the 2015 World Cup and New Zealand’s lame surrender will have given five or six other teams in world rugby added confidence that there is always one implosion a season in every All Black team.
England, even if for just 80 minutes, showed players capable of playing a brand of rugby previously believed to be possible only in New Zealand, France showed the mongrel and the flair to take apart Australia, something they have not done for a while and Ireland and Wales will always offer a contest when hosting anyone.
The tradition of the Six Nations has a special appeal and the Rugby Championship is a pup when compared to the 100-plus years of what is now the Six Nations.
Scotland are a side that has beaten the Springboks and Wallabies recently and Italy have come close on a couple of occasions to upsetting Australia and there is not much difference between Argentina, Italy and Scotland.
I challenge those in the South to take off their blinkers and acknowledge the quality of rugby played in the northern hemisphere and also the quality of player available to the respective countries. These are players as good as what stars down south.
England and France will start favourites; France for their consistency over the last 12 months and England on the evidence of their last two performances against the Boks and for that magical match against the All Blacks when they won in dramatic and record-breaking fashion.
Every squad will also have a South African flavour, be it in the coach box or in the playing squad.
Wales have been the greatest disappointment since the World Cup and have lost their last seven internationals. I am picking them to come good in the Six Nations and win it with France and England the next best.
Ireland will never be easy in Dublin and Scotland will have their moments at home. Italy won’t provide much by way of wins but they will physically pound a few of the opposition.
It promises to be a tournament with more appeal that the recent Rugby Championship and it certainly won’t be as one-sided as the All Blacks six-win romp.
No team will finish unbeaten.
This weekend England will beat Scotland, Wales will edge Ireland and France will comfortably beat Italy in Rome.
My tournament pick is Wales.
Weekend’s matches (home teams first)
Saturday
England v Scotland
Wales v Ireland
Sunday
Italy v France
28 Comments
1 Feb 2013, 12:59 pm
Welsh Dragons
1 Feb 2013, 13:00 pm
I can’t see Wales winning this tournament at all, England and France are on a roll and will be the finalists!!
1 Feb 2013, 13:09 pm
“I challenge those in the South to take off their blinkers and acknowledge the quality of rugby played in the northern hemisphere and also the quality of player available to the respective countries. These are players as good as what stars down south”
I agree – if not better
1 Feb 2013, 13:12 pm
“The Southern Hemisphere teams have nothing to be arrogant about. Neither do the supporters.”
But yet they are…….in the extreme
1 Feb 2013, 13:13 pm
@TooMuchRugby-3: I guess that is why they flog us do often.
1 Feb 2013, 13:22 pm
” have always believed the Heineken Cup to be a superior tournament to Super Rugby because of the tournament structure and because so many teams have the capacity to win it”
True again. SuperRugby has become an elongated, predictable boring affair. The new tournament structure was a cocup from the beginning
1 Feb 2013, 13:27 pm
France it will be.
The fact that they are becoming more consistent is ‘scary’ for the rest of the rugby playing world…..
1 Feb 2013, 13:31 pm
France forwards to win this. Also, backline is full of gamebreakers
Six Nations competition is Super rugby standard
1 Feb 2013, 13:43 pm
The arrogance you speak of is more a sense of expectation from Southern hemisphere supporters. That can be seen as arrogance, but if you historically have beaten an opponent more often than not, I do not see why?
The flip side of this is the reaction of the European teams whenever they beat one of the Southern big three. All of a sudden such a result makes them think they are on an upward curve and they are world beaters. The big three only seem to really care about wins and losses against themselves.
I do not think we can compare Heineken rugby to Superrugby until there is an actual match between two teams from those respective competitions. Doing so before is a waste of time and both hemispheres will claim that their competition is better. Of late I would have to agree though that Super Rugby is not to the same standard that it used to be, but I would still have bet on the Chiefs beating Leinster had they met. But as I said, I am biased being from the Southern Hemisphere.
1 Feb 2013, 13:51 pm
This 6 nations is shaping up to be the most interesting with either Wales, France or England making credible claims to being favourites.
Wales, simply because of the quality of the team they can field (despite the poor results) and that they are defending champions. Though their flayhalf this weekend looks quite average, and their coach seems to not be able to fire up his troops.
England were able to push Australia and South Africa and beat NZ, but I am not convinced about them yet. All the confidence seems to stem from that one victory (where both teams scored 3 tries and England had an intercept).
France due to their consistency I feel are the best of the three. It will be awesome if they win the 6 Nations before going to play NZ. That will pit the two champions of the respective hemisphere competitions against each other.
Ireland I think will simply be a stumbling block to one the three above but otherwise will not be in it to win it really.
1 Feb 2013, 14:30 pm
Such a confident prediction from Keo. If he didnt get most of his predictions right in the past, I wouldnt bet on it.
France for my money.
1 Feb 2013, 14:37 pm
This isn’t a grand slam tear. Theres no buzz in Wales at the moment. However, I do believe Wales will beat Ireland and Scotland will upset England. France should put 20 points on Italy Sunday.
Irish players have a habbit of playing excellent in Lions years so I pick Ireland to win the 6N but to loae their first match.
At the end of the tournament it could easily look like this:
Ireland
France
England
Scotland
Wales
Italy
Would love to see Scotland win a slam but their team is 1 or 2 seasons away from being a challenging team. England have capability of suprise wins but everyone will want to beat them now and they will struggle against the French and if they are going for the Slam they will need to beat Wales in Cardiff infront of 70000 at the Millenium Stadium. I have been to Wales v England matches and I can only tell you that the atmosphere is more intense than any ive every seen. More than when Wales v France for the slam last year.
Anyway my pick is Ireland and I”m glad its finally February because all the years ruggers begins this month!
1 Feb 2013, 15:09 pm
yes I too can see a Scotland upset
Where is Cusiter?
Max evans should be starting, good player
Scotland will have the edge at scrum and lineout.
Wales losing streak will continue
1 Feb 2013, 16:09 pm
@greatest13gerber-13:
Yep, my nephew who lives in Galashiels and is Scotlands biggest fan (trademark), reckons this is the season where it comes together. And through the network chats and news, I’m actually quite confident going into tomorrows game. As he keeps saying, someone is going to get on the wrong side of a Scotland hiding very soon
I’m not sure about Cusiter, he had a dodgy shoulder I recall during the EOYTs, but I’m quite excited about Henry Pyrgos on the bench. Maybe Cusiter has been overlooked for the youngster?
And I like the backline, especially with Sean Lamont moving into centre and Maitland making his debut is exciting. Let’s see how this goes tomorrow but no doubt Evans will be there or there about this season, I also like him.
1 Feb 2013, 16:12 pm
And to get all you Saffers behind us, here’s a good column from Rory Lawson on the legend who is Bill McLaren
http://rorylawson9.wordpress.com/
With a voice almost operatic in clarity and range, instantly recognisable and uniquely blessed with a Borders twang, Bill McLaren “The Voice of Rugby” enjoyed almost 50 years as a national broadcaster. Three years have flown by since his passing but many of the great rugby moments he created with his magical turn of phrase are still fresh in the mind. I’m so lucky to have grown up around Bill McLaren, Papa to me, and with the 2013 Six Nations Championship fast approaching I felt what better place to start than to write a few words on the man himself.
William Pollock McLaren was a big, raw-boned flank forward born and brought up in Hawick, where he began his rugby career playing for the famous Greens. After returning from fighting at Monte Cassino in the Second World War war he came agonisingly close to winning his first Scotland cap, but was struck down by tuberculosis before he could fulfill his dream of playing for his country. He was one of 7 patients chosen by doctors to trial a new drug in the hope of curing the disease – two survived. Forced to give up playing the game he loved so dearly he joined the Hawick Express as a junior reporter and it was his editor John Murray Hood who suggested he audition as a commentator. Our national team’s loss was the rugby world’s gain.
His first national radio commentary was on South of Scotland versus the touring Springboks at Hawick’s home ground, Mansfield Park, in 1952. The following year he called his first international match, Scotland’s 12-0 loss to Wales in the early stages of TV broadcasting. In the five decades that followed his voice became synonymous with rugby both in Scotland and across the world, bringing the game to generations of fans. His style enticed even those who didn’t know the game well, adept as he was at explaining technicalities and highlighting the flair of players. Even for those fans who couldn’t quite grasp the rules, Papa would make sure they had something to appreciate.
He was a true student of the game and it is difficult to describe just how dedicated he was to the sport and to his role, determined to both entertain and educate the listener. His pre-game research was relentless. I remember visiting Hawick to see Nana & Papa with the family many times as a youngster. My brother Gregor and I would trawl our way through his endless pile of video tapes, digging out copies of matches involving our heroes. We’d watch them while Papa worked tirelessly in his ‘glory hole’ (office) preparing for his next match. Hours later he’d run us down to Wilton Lodge Park and we’d relive the great moments of the matches we’d watched earlier commentating our way through it… “Jeffries with the pickup from the scrum, feeds to Rory Lawson, Lawson to Chalmers, on to the ball comes Hastings, Gavin Hastings with pace and power, rounds Underwood, over the top of Carling, links with Gregor Lawson who scores in the corner! What a score.”
His preparation for each match was systematic, accurate and perfectly planned. In the early part of the week he’d prepare his ‘Big Sheet’, to guide him in the heat of the moment during commentary. Best described as a giant, hand written, 1000 piece jigsaw, it would outline the names of players and officials, detailing position, club, caps, tries scored, favourite tv show, match history…the list of facts was endless. For those of you have seen one of Papa’s Big Sheets I’m sure you’ll agree each one really is a work of art, elaborately colour-coded in a way only he could understand.
Papa had the most incredible memory, and in the run up to a game he would sharpen his tongue using a technique that was incredible to watch. He had a scabby old pack of cards made up of numbers 1-15 in both red of diamonds and black of clubs. He’d use a marker pen to graffiti the Ace as number 1, the Jack #11, the Queen #12, King #13 and the Jokers with numbers 14 and 15. He would shuffle the cards randomly and then turn them over one by one, reciting the name of the player due to wear that number, as well as the endless fact he had gathered for each man. As the week developed he would produce the cards at a mesmerising pace, names rolling effortlessly off his tongue simply at the flash of a number as he visualised a game and executed a phantom commentary. The homework he did meant he very rarely made a mistake in broadcast and the information was delivered not as dry pieces of data but as wonderful gems which were soaked up by the listener.
With these foundations in place he could rely on his wit, compassion, humour and inexhaustible resevoir of adoration for the game and its people to set him apart. Perhaps the greatest wonder of BIll McLaren’s commentary was his total impartiality. No matter whether he was commentating on South Africa vs Australia, Edinburgh vs Bath, Hawick vs Gala or on his son-in-law (my dad) scoring two tries for Scotland in the 1976 Calcutta Cup match vs England, Papa simply revelled in the rugby. How else do you explain him describing “Big Vleis Visagie – born when meat was cheap”, “Peter Stringer – they say in Cork that if you catch him you get to make a wish”, “Thomas Castaignede – the baby faced assassin”, “Simon Geoghan – all arms and legs like a flying octopus” and after scoring an outstanding try for the All Blacks “Hika the hooker from Ngongotaha”?!
I feel blessed to own a video tape of him commentating on me and my brother playing together. Yes it was only a Scottish Premiership club game between Heriots and West of Scotland, but the 20 seconds that he commentated on the 8-9-15 move that had touches for both Lawsons and finished with Gregor scoring under the posts will always be pulled out from time to time for another watch! It’s safe to say he didn’t save his unique turn of phrase for broadcasting alone. He was a great golfer and taught me how to swing my sticks, describing some of my poorer shots as “a right howk”. He affectionately referred to us grandkids as “The Hitler youth”, and spoke of dinner with the family as “like feeding time at the zoo”.
As a family we miss those days so dearly but do so with a smile on our faces thinking of the endless memories he has given us. He was the most wonderful humble man, a true gent and an inspiration to me. Little did he realise how well loved he was by rugby fans worldwide. I’ve never felt more proud than on that March afternoon at the Millenium Stadium in Cardiff where i joined 80,000 others in belting out “for he’s a jolly good fellow” prior to his final international commentary, Wales vs Scotland, the same fixture where it all began. During the game I spotted a Welsh fan holding a banner in the crowd saying “Bill McLaren is Welsh”, which seems to encapsulate just how loved he was by the rugby public, who took him to their hearts regardless of their club or nationality.
In his final interview he was asked what the best thing was about his 50 years as a commentator at rugby matches. His answer? “I’ve hardly ever had to pay to get in.” For a Hawick man who loved every part of the game of rugby union, what better could he ask for than to watch the sport he loved week upon week and year upon year. He has left a legacy of the finest voice ever heard in the sport. What a guy.
1 Feb 2013, 18:18 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-7:
@Stawm-11:
@greatest13gerber-8:
Agree with all comments gentlemen – the French massacre of the Wallabies was the rugby high point and best rugby in 2012 – more so than the Pongo win over a complacent All Black side – can’t see that happening again in a hurry; but I can see France beating everyone if they replicate their performance v. Australia. And that includes the All Blacks at their best.
With that said – the question of their consistency arises – never their strong point; as much as I would want to see it happen, i.e. they become consistent, les Bleurs have got to do a lot more for me to put the house on them – they’re France at the end of the day – sublime one moment, terrible the next. (Though let’s watch Philippe St Andre – great French captain led the French tour win of NZ in 1993).
1 Feb 2013, 20:54 pm
Keo
Provide some stats of NH rugby vs SH rugby home and away to substantiate your claims.
Aha, thought so shameful stats and nothing to praise the second division tournament called the 6 Nations.Even their rugby scribes and commentators refer to it as a second rated tournament
1 Feb 2013, 21:36 pm
“I have always believed the Heineken Cup to be a superior tournament to Super Rugby because of the tournament structure and because so many teams have the capacity to win it. In Super Rugby too often you can pick four of the six play-of finalists before a ball is kicked.”
I do readily agree that in terms of intensity HC looks better and qualifying system addsan entertainment value, but “so many” potential title winners – really? You can safely say well before the start that the all semifinal places will be occupied by Irish and/or English and/or French teams.
1 Feb 2013, 21:43 pm
@J.B. Cowper-16: Indeed, French massacre of Australia looked very impressive, although I’d say that Ozzie massacre of the Frogs 2 years earlier, IMHO, was way more compelling. Young dogs ripping to shreads seasoned Frogs finests.
And the problem with “but I can see France beating everyone if they replicate their performance v. Australia” is that the likes of the ABs (or even Boks) who do know a thing about forward play won’t ever give such a joyride to the French. Sure, French CAN beat either of them (and they indeed have the wood over, say, Boks, in recent decade), they definitely WON’T massacre neither of them. I do recall, however, Frogs being massacred at home at every single Test vs the Blacks last 10 years.
1 Feb 2013, 21:58 pm
I’d say France to win the comp with main threat coming from England. I would like to see Italians winning more than one game for a change, they were so close vs Aussies and last year vs English, time to deliver.
2 Feb 2013, 00:24 am
Wales are wrecked with injuries. They won’t be winning. This year’s tournament is between France, Ireland and England.
2 Feb 2013, 00:35 am
England vs France
Ireland spent.. Wales wracked to hell
2 Feb 2013, 01:13 am
@JockBok-15:
No-one comes close to Bill. Not even Hugh “gin ‘n tonic” Blades.
2 Feb 2013, 10:31 am
@JockBok-15:
He is a rugby legend indeed.Thanks for that.
2 Feb 2013, 11:35 am
@polaris-19:
But that’s the point – when French get beaten – as they so often do – it’s close to meaningless. In a series win in SA in the ’90′s France lost FIVE provincial matches on tour, including a 50-pointer the week before the 1st Test (which they won 18-17) and the 2nd Test which they drew. When they thrashed the All Blacks in 1999 in WC semi-final this very same French side had gone down to the Kiwis 54-7 (yes, 54-7) only three months previously.
The Kiwis are by far and away the most consistent side in world rugby, and the Wallabies the second most so. For a side (Australia), fresh from a tour victory in Argentina and an 18-18 draw with, we are told, “the greatest AB side in history” (which I take with a huge grain of salt) the les Bleurs victory counts as a formidable result, because Aussie played well (as evidenced by beating Poms at Twickenham a week later) – the fact of the matter is when France turn it on they play the best rugby in the world – and, if you want to argue with that, it’s certainly the most interesting, innovatinve and attractive.
But for sheer consistency of performance, which is the real measuring stick, NZ are way ahead, in the way SA used to be.
2 Feb 2013, 13:03 pm
“I have always believed the Heineken Cup to be a superior tournament to Super Rugby because of the tournament structure and because so many teams have the capacity to win it.”
Keo, you’re stuck in the 90s. So many teams have the capacity to win it but as it turns out, Leinster has won it three of the last four years. In that time, we’ve had the Chiefs, Reds, and Bulls win super rugby. Who would have predicted the Chiefs and Reds victory at the beginning of those years?
In the last ten years, we’ve had six different winners while H cup had four. Which competition is predictable?
2 Feb 2013, 17:47 pm
Bill McLaren was my grandfathers p.e teacher in secondary school in Hawick, Scotland and old man also played in the back row with Jim Telfer. The voice of rugby he truly was.
2 Feb 2013, 18:01 pm
@Rhys7-27:
Nice. Hawick is a true rugby town and that’s quite rare in Scotland. I’ll be there in March visiting cos my old Mum lives there
Have your say
You must be logged in to post a comment.