The Springboks will win well in Cape Town but I don’t think they will get the bonus point try.
The weather and a conservative Wallabies approach will limit the potency of the Boks and also the flow of the match.
The Wallabies, despite the talk of ‘wanting to have a crack’, will abandon their ‘Australian way’ of running at all costs and from every area. It isn’t really the Australian way but more that of the Village Idiot, so after humiliation against the All Blacks and Springboks the Australians will settle for a more intelligent and logical approach.
They will kick – and they will kick a lot.
They will try to expose the space behind wingers Bryan Habana and Willie le Roux, especially Le Roux and they will try all sorts of lineout variations. They will also be more competitive at the breakdown but where they simply can’t improve is at the scrum. They just don’t have the tight five to trouble the Springboks.
I see this game as a 27-12 (three tries to nil) or if the Wallabies get a try, then adjust that thinking to a 29-14 type of result.
I also don’t think the All Blacks will get a bonus point try in Argentina against the Pumas, which means it will be all on at Ellis Park a week later, with just the four league points separating one and two.
The All Blacks are going to have to work hard for their win and Aaron Cruden’s boot could be a big factor, as the Pumas discipline lets them down.
The Boks at Newlands will be very structured in their play. They’ll apply the slow poison and play field position and take the easy three pointers and try and set up lineout drive and maul penalty opportunities close to the line.
There won’t be the counter attacking opportunities there were in Brisbane and the Aussies won’t be as stupid in their attacking approach this time.
Ewen McKenzie has spoken of dumbing down the Australian approach and captain James Horwill has said they need greater balance. In effect, they just need to play proper rugby.
Their intent will be there but they are not good enough to beat this Bok team in South Africa.
That’s not arrogance, but confidence in the ability of Jean de Villiers’s Boks and an acknowledgement that these Wallabies are woeful.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Willie le Roux, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Flip van der Merwe, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 Gurthrö Steenkamp, 18 Coenie Oosthuizen, 19 Juandré Kruger, 20 Siya Kolisi, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Pat Lambie, 23 Jan Serfontein.
Wallabies – 15 Israel Folau, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Leali’ifano, 11 Joe Tomane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 James Horwill (c), 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 James Slipper.
Subs: 16 Saia Fainga’a, 17 Benn Robinson, 18 Sekope Kepu, 19 Sitaleki Timani, 20 Ben McCalman, 21 Will Genia, 22 Matt Toomua, 23 Chris Feauai-Sautia.